1. Southern Company Summer 2019 Outlook & Winter 2018-19 Review
Presented by Climate Impact Company
April 9, 2019

2. Climate Impact Company/Southern Company Summer 2019 Outlook & Winter 2018-19 Review
El Nino is here now, intensity uncertain for summer.
El Nino + wet soils Midwest = Cool Midwest summer (confident forecast).
So…Hot areas West Coast, Far South and possibly East Coast.
North Atlantic is warm offsetting inhibiting influence of El Nino on TC season.
Winter Review
Sharp extremes (temperature and precipitation) dominated.
Surprise November chill followed by warm reversal in December.
Very warm Southeast.
Expected winter El Nino failed.

3. Climate Impact Co. Summer 2019 Outlook
Cool across the Flood Zone, hot Gulf Coast and West…
More rains for the Midwest; Gulf States mostly dry…

4. Southern Company System Summer Forecast
Temperature: Hot on the FRONT END of Summer…
Precipitation: Dry June then trending wetter…

5. Tropical Cyclone Season 2019
Does the warm North Atlantic outweigh El Nino? Near miss hurricanes…
Weak to moderate El Nino is forecast (confidence is below average)…

6. Lead Predictors for Summer 2019 Forecast
Where soils are wet the atmosphere is cloudy and cool…
Looks like an El Nino year but intensity very uncertain…

7. The Global Ocean Forecast…
Models are convince El Nino develops AND North Atlantic also warms…
Based on ocean forecast, the correlating upper air features…

8. U.S. Monthly Forecasts May-September 2019
May temperature…Warm coasts.
May precipitation…Wet Mid-South.

9. U.S. Monthly Forecasts May-September 2019
June temperature…Hot Southeast!
June precipitation…Dry Southeast!

10. U.S. Monthly Forecasts May-September 2019
July temperature…Midwest cool.
July precipitation…Wet Mid-South.

11. U.S. Monthly Forecasts May-September 2019
August temperature…Mid-South cool.
August precipitation…Wet AL/GA.

12. U.S. Monthly Forecasts May-September 2019
September temperature…U.S. is warm.
September precipitation…Wet AL/GA.

13. Summer 2019 Alabama/Georgia CDD Forecast
Alabama…Similar to 2018/2016 to start the warm season.
Georgia…JUL/AUG similar to 2018/2017.

14. Southern Company Extreme Heat Outlook
#Days > 95F…Hotter earlier (versus later) this summer.
Risk thresholds forecast…Certain upper 90’s but much tougher.

15. Summer 2018 Forecast/Verification
Temperature forecast…Hot western half of U.S.
Temperature verification…Hot most everwhere!

16. Summer 2018 Forecast/Verification
Precipitation forecast…Dry Central/Wet Northeast Corridor.
Precipitation verification…Midwest was wetter, Northeast was on target.

17. Winter 2018-19 Forecast Verification
Temperature forecast…Warm Northwest El Nino forecast.
Observed temperature…El Nino fails and just the opposite occurs.

18. Winter 2018-19 Forecast Verification
Precipitation forecast…El Nino wet South/dry North winter.
Observed precipitation…El Nino fails; widespread wet climate.

19. Winter 2018-19 State Rankings
Southern Company: Top ten warmest on record.
Southern Company: Top ten wettest on record.

20. Southern Company System Observed Winter 2018-19
Temperature NOV-18 to MAR- 19…Super warm February.
Precipitation NOV-18 to MAR- 19…Excessive wet December.

21. Southern Company Forecast Verification Winter 2018-19
Temperature Verification NOV-18 to MAR-19…Tough to forecast extremes.
Precipitation Verification NOV-18 to MAR-19…Wet early/dry late forecast.

22. Winter 2018-19 Thermal Extremes
Mid-November cold surge and natural gas price spike…
One month later…sprawling warmth.

23. Winter 2018-19 Thermal Extremes
Record warm Southeast starts the New Year…
Near record warmth first week of February…

24. Winter 2018-19 Precipitation Extremes…
December 2018 wettest on record for Georgia…
March 2019 top 20% driest all-time…

25. Winter 2018-19 Gas Population Weight HDD
Alabama…Surprisingly not as warm as recent winters.
Georgia…Continuing pattern of extremes.

26. 2019 North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Outlook

27. 2019 North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Outlook
12 storms, 5 hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes.
Forecast is slightly below normal.
If El Nino dissipates activity will be greater.
Projected tracks indicate a major hurricane into Louisiana and Florida both in September.
Concern: High pressure area over Northeast U.S. regenerates (similar to last 2 seasons) and causes storms going inland to stall and force excessive rainfall (similar to Florence and Harvey).
Seasonal outlook will be updated in early June.