A Look Back at 2011/ A Look Ahead at 2012 John Lewis, Senior Forecaster National Weather Service Little Rock, Arkansas.
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A Look Back at 2011/ A Look Ahead at 2012 John Lewis, Senior Forecaster National Weather Service Little Rock, Arkansas
The Year So Far 2011 started with widespread drought conditions following a winter with below normal precipitation. Most of Arkansas was hammered with heavy rain in April and May, with a hot and dry summer to follow. Most recently, there was one deluge after another in November and early December.
The Year So Far It has been a year of extremes (feast or famine)!
Drought Outlook Through February, 2011 Arkansas should mostly stay out of the drought business, with improvement possible in the southwest.
January – March Precipitation Typical La Niña There is usually a wet signal from Arkansas to the Ohio Valley by late winter/early spring.
The Forecast Significant precipitation this winter will be most likely in northern/eastern Arkansas, with lesser amounts expected in the southwest (where departures from normal are already extreme). Be prepared for an active late winter/early spring, with severe storms and at or above normal precipitation. Flooding could become a problem, especially in the White River basin.
Drought Frequency Little Rock Norm Precip = 50” <45” <40” 1920s 6 3 1930s 3 1 1940s 3 2 1950s 4 1 1960s 3 2 1970s 2 0 1980s 1 1 1990s 5 1 2000s 4 2 Since the 1870s… Three Consecutive Years < 45” 5 times (last 1998-2000) Three Consecutive Years < 40” Never
On the Web Visit the National Weather Service Little Rock website at this address… http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk or Google… National Weather Service Little Rock