1. Southern Company Summer 2018 Outlook & Winter 2017-18 Review
Presented by Climate Impact Company
April 6, 2018

2. Climate Impact Company/Southern Company Summer 2018 Outlook & Winter 2017-18 Review
La Nina fades, neutral ENSO follows.
Warming North Atlantic basin key contributor to forecast
Near normal summer temperature (however, expect volatility).
Georgia drought erodes.
Tropics: Normally busy, nothing like last year.
Winter Review
La Nina was weak, enable other climate factors to dominate.
Stratospheric warming in the arctic region triggered January harsh cold.
Pacific Madden Julian oscillation event pushed a record warm February.
Overall forecast (mild/dry) verified but it was choppy getting there.

3. Climate Impact Co. Summer 2018 Outlook
Southeast is normally warm, heat West
Georgia could be dry, Northeast wet

4. Southern Company System Summer Forecast
Temperature:
SLIGHTLY above normal, changeable
Precipitation:
July driest, August wettest

5. Tropical Cyclone Season 2018
Near normal activity, most hurricanes stay at sea
NEUTRAL ENSO favors near normal activity

6. Lead Predictors for Summer 2018 Forecast
Dynamic/statistical models agree on neutral ENSO
If Georgia drought persists (fades) hotter (cooler). Low confidence part of forecast.

7. The Ocean Forecast… Now: La Nina hanging in there
Summer: Warming northern oceans, La Nina gone (Atlantic tropics near normal)

8. U.S. Monthly Forecasts May-September 2018
May temperature
May precipitation

9. U.S. Monthly Forecasts May-September 2018
June temperature
June precipitation

10. U.S. Monthly Forecasts May-September 2018
July temperature
July precipitation

11. U.S. Monthly Forecasts May-September 2018
August temperature
August precipitation

12. U.S. Monthly Forecasts May-September 2018
September temperature
September precipitation

13. Summer 2018 Alabama/Georgia CDD Forecast

14. Southern Company Extreme Heat Outlook
#Days > 90F
#Days > 95F

15. Summer 2017 Forecast/Verification
Temperature forecast
Temperature verification

16. Summer 2017 Forecast/Verification
Precipitation forecast
Precipitation verification

17. Winter 2017-18 Forecast Verification
Temperature forecast
Observed temperature

18. Winter 2017-18 Forecast Verification
Precipitation forecast
Observed precipitation

19. Winter 2017-18 State Rankings
Southern Company: Marginally warm
Southern Company: Marginally dry

20. Southern Company System Observed Winter 2017-18
Temperature NOV-17 to MAR-18
Precipitation NOV-17 to MAR-18

21. Southern Company Forecast Verification Winter 2017-18
Temperature Verification NOV-17 to MAR-18
Precipitation Verification NOV-17 to MAR-18

22. Winter 2017-18 Cold Peak Early January Was Coldest Week of Winter
3rd Week of January Also Very Cold as Snowpack Extended to Gulf Coast

23. Record Warm February
February was record warm
The month of February was record warm in Southeast

24. Winter 2017-18 Gas Population Weight HDD
Alabama
Georgia