National air emissions inventory: the residential sector CCAC Heatstove/cookstove Summit 29-30.05.2017 Warsaw

Outline Impact on air emissions from households: heating demand, structure of fuel consumption, and changes of heating technologies Emissions of the NECD pollutants Emissions from the residential sector (1A4bi) in the national total Emissions from the coal combustion in residential sector Emissions from the residential combustion are assigned to the NFR 1A4bi category. The NFR (Nomenclature For Reporting) is the official classification for European emission inventories.

Air emissions from households Three main factors influencing emissions: Heating demand Structure of fuel used Structure of heating technologies

Heating demand Three main factors influencing emission: Heating demand Structure of fuel used Heating technologies Heating demand: Heating demand per heated area [m2] is decreasing Heated area is increasing constantly

Houses’ living area in Poland in 1995-2015 [km2] The issue of constant increase of the living area is associated also with the applied building technologies. The key issue to assess heating demand is, apart from knowledge about the living area, information on the technical condition of the thermal insulation. The issue associated with the heating demand is also the climate change. Increasing temperature will cause the decrease of the heating demand, but on the other hand, will cause also increase of cooling demand. This probably will not drive the emission decrease but move the part of emission to the „Public power and Energy sector”. Data: Central Statistical Office (GUS), 2017: https://bdl.stat.gov.pl/BDL/start.

Building matrix in Poland The majority of the residential sector using individual heating appliances such as small stoves, are detached houses. The data obtained from the TABULA project (National Energy Conservation Agency, 2012) indicate that only little percent of buildings constructed before 2002 is thermomodernised. New buildings must have fulfilled as obligatory energy efficient standards. Therefore, together with increasing building area, we don’t expect strong decrease in the heating demand in the near future. Data: National Energy Conservation Agency, 2012: http://episcope.eu/fileadmin/tabula/public/docs/scientific/PL_TABULA_ScientificReport_NAPE.pdf.

Structure of fuel consumption in residential sector in 1990-2015 [GJ] The fuel consumption in residential sector is mostly driven by the demand but also by the economic situation of households. Decrease in 1990 was caused by the transition from the centrally planned economy to the market one when prices of fuels significantly increased. The sharp peaks in fuel use are mostly related to „cold” winters, like in 2006 and 2010. Significant decrease in fuels use, especially hard coal, in early years 2000 are related mostly to warm winters. The structure of fuels combusted in residential sector (heating of the living area primarily) is changing. The hard coal use decreased from 59% in 1990 to 48% in 2015 while share of natural gas became stable (about 25%). The fuel wood significantly increased from 7 up to 20% in 1990-2015. Data: Central Statistical Office/EUROSTAT.

Structure of fuel consumption in residential sector in 2015

Changes in heating technologies Changes of heating appliances used during the last 16 years indicate the diminishing share of furnaces, manually feeded and traditional stoves in favour of more advanced boilers. Further swap of heating appliances for more advanced is expected in the future Data: Kubica K., 2016

Changes in heating technologies The changes in emission intensity of coal combustion resulting from the changes of structure of stoves/boilers used (country study for the purpose of national inventories) in residential sector indicate decreasing trend; only NOx EFs slightly increase (due to higher temp. of combustion) No emisison factor of the sulfur oxides (SO2) is given in the figure. The households’ appliances are not equipped with the installations dedicated to desulfurizing, in other words, so the SO2 emission is driven only by the sulfur content in fuel (coal). According to the information derived from the expertise (Kubica, 2016), the decrease of the SO2 emissions can be done only by limiting of the fuel combusted, or entering into force the governmental regulations concerning the content of sulphur in coal (ie. decrease from 1.2% to 0.6%).

NEC pollutants emisisons from the residential sector Emissions of the NECD pollutants in residential sector in 1990-2015 NEC pollutants emisisons from the residential sector Trends of air pollutants emissions are fluctuating due to all given above emission drivers i.e. decreasing emission intensity, growing living area and variable weather conditions (degree days) .

Contribution of the residential emissions to the national totals in 2000, 2010 and 2015 The most significant contribution of air pollutants emissions from residential sector relates to TSP, ranging from nearly 30% in 2000 up to 41% in 2010. On the other hand the smallest share relates to Nitrogen Oxides ranging from 5% in 2000 up to 10% in 2015 in national totals.

Contribution of the emissions from coal combustion to the residential sector Coal combustion is the main source of emissions from residential sector. The biggest contribution in emissions here is the sulfur oxides exceeding 80% of emissions in residential sector due to higher sulphur content mostly. The other substances have smaller share in emissions from coal combustion, here other fuels such as wood or natural gas matter.

Conclusions National Emission Inventory reflects significant share of emissions from households; Coal combustion is a major driver of emissions but its share is decreasing; National Emission Inventory covers technological changes implemented in the residential sector; Further improvements are planned in methodological approach for other than NECD pollutants; Poland has fulfilled the 2010 NECD ceilings for all pollutants; Emission projections are planned for development reflecting measures recently considered by the government for implementation (eg. quality of fuels). Usunięto: air quality limits