1. Tom TapperTransport 1 TRANSPORT Energy Demand Projections Tom Tapper 24 th February 2005

2. Tom TapperTransport 2 The Transport Predicament Transport is essential for the economic prosperity of the UK Our spatially diffuse society relies on transport to facilitate the high levels of personal mobility and freedom we have come to expect However, our motorised society has lead to significant increases in energy demand and significant environmental impacts from the inefficient use of energy.

3. Tom TapperTransport 3 Historical Trends Moving from an Industrial society to a highly mobile, Transport based society

4. Tom TapperTransport 4 Factors affecting changes in transport energy use Is estimated that 90% of the change in demand for transport is due to changes in the Output effect (Increasing demand) While 10% is due to change in the Intensity effect (Changes in Structure and efficiency)

5. Tom TapperTransport 5 Total UK Light Vehicles Consistent Increase of approximately 0.46 Million vehicles per annum No signs to suggest total vehicles will start to decline Total Light Vehicle Energy Consumption On average has increased by 18.6 PJ per annum Recently energy consumption has reach a plateau and begun to decline Is this a promising sign for the future?

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8. Tom TapperTransport 8 How Factors effect energy consumption To analyse how each individual factor has influence energy consumption, a datum year was chosen (1964), then each factor was held constant as the other factors varied thus showing the individual factors contribution to overall energy consumption This demonstrates the importance of fuel efficiency in minimising energy consumption, given no improvements in energy efficiency the energy demand would be significantly greater than that today. The graph also displays that the total number of vehicles on the roads is driving the increases in energy consumption, therefore this is a target area for reductions. The graph shows that only recently have improvements in fuel efficiency and reductions in Km/Vehicle been significant enough to compensate for the increasing number of vehicles on the roads, thus resulting in the gradual reductions in energy consumption

9. Tom TapperTransport 9 Despite improvements in efficiency, increase in total vehicles drives demand up Demand decreases as increase in total cars slows and efficiency improves

10. Tom TapperTransport 10 Energy Scenarios Worst: Emission controls are implemented but weak and lack enforcement, little is done to change social structure: minor reduction in KM/Vehicle and total cars increase. Summary: energy consumption gradually increases Best: Emission control is set and implemented quickly, as new, efficient cars flood the market reductions occur more rapidly, by 2030 emissions reduced by 40%. Society is more aware of climate change, and is adjusting accordingly to reduce vehicle ownership per head to Km/vehicle. Summary: Energy Consumption significantly decreases Likely: Regulations are partially successful, however, accepting that society doesn’t respond as quickly as imagined and some technical difficulties in emission reductions

11. Tom TapperTransport 11 Present20102015202020252030 Pessimistic -12011237125512531248 Optimistic - 1034926804728668 Probable 1120111810821030991958 Projected energy demand, passenger road transport Units: (PJ) These projections are based on road passenger transport, this area consumes the largest proportion of energy within transport sector, over 50%, thus changes in this sector will have the most significant impacts. However, changes in demand from other sectors are currently more variable therefore demand some attention

12. Tom TapperTransport 12 Total Demand Calculations 1970: 6114 PJ (19% Transport) 2000: 6703 PJ (34% Transport) 2030: 7346 PJ (39% Transport, DTI projection ) (7346/100)*39 = 2864 PJ Total Transport Demand 2030 Of which Passenger transport will account for 958PJ or 33% Currently Freight Transport = 29% of Total Transport, with a previous growth rate of 17%, freight transport will continue to increase but at a lesser rate, due to advances in efficiency and saturated markets – 17% further growth over 30 year period. Therefore by 2030 Freight Transport will account for 33.9% or 970 PJ Air will follow a similar pattern, at present accounting for 18% of Total Transport growth rate of 73% over 10 years, this increase will continue but at a lesser rate – 73% over 30 years. Therefore by 2030 Aviation will account for 31% or 889 PJ

13. Tom TapperTransport 13 Overall Transport Energy demand continues to grow to accommodate highly mobile society Increased diversity of transport energy demand, decrease in passenger, significant increase in air and freight

14. Tom TapperTransport 14 YearTotal Transport Energy Road Passenger transport Road Freight Transport Air Transport 2000 22791139660410 2010 23901103722505 2015 25051067784601 2020 26221031846696 2025 2741995908791 2030 2864958970889 Total Transport Energy Demand (PJ)

15. Tom TapperTransport 15 Assumptions Market processes with naturally improve vehicle efficiency Growth in Air and Freight transport will reduce but still remain high Discounting water and rail: insignificant contribution Carbon trading does not affect transport industry due to mobility of source Predictions rely on fossil fuels to provide majority of energy, an increased role in small diesel power units, greater reliance on gas imports until hydrogen infrastructure in installed Large scale investment into a hydrogen technology: creating an infrastructure, developing vehicles and integrating fuel-cells into society as to begin the transfer from an oil to a hydrogen nation