Semi-Arid & Arid Ecosystems Climate Change : Key Issues and Challenges National Policy Dialogue on Climate Change Action 8-9 November, 2010 Chennai Development Alternatives

Region Characteristics and Geographical Spread Fig: Arid and Semi-arid Regions of India In India almost 53.4 per cent land area comprises arid and semi-arid regions (First NATCOM, GoI) Arid and semi-arid regions are characterized by with no or insufficient rainfall to sustain agricultural production About 19 % of the country experiences arid conditions every year (First NATCOM, GoI). Main crops in semi-arid region are millets, wheat and pulses. Traditional practice is rainfed agriculture Development Alternatives Source: Velayuthamet aI. 1999

Sectoral Impacts Water Agriculture Forests and Grass Lands Development Alternatives

Projected Climate Change Impacts - Water Fig: Projected Water Availability Status of Major River Basins Hydrological cycle is predicted to be more intense, with higher annual average rainfall as well increased drought There is a predicted increase in extreme rainfall and rainfall intensity in Ganga, Krishna and Godavari river basins towards the end of the 21st century. Except for the Narmada and Tapi total run-off is projected to decline Luni likely to experience acute physical water scarce conditions The river basins of Mahi, Pennar, Sabarmati and Tapi are likely to experience constant water scarcities and shortage Development Alternatives Source: NATCOM –I, GoI

Projected Climate Change Impacts - Agriculture Indian agriculture is monsoon dependent, with over 60 per cent of the crop area under rainfed agriculture Several studies have shown a decrease in the duration and yield of crops as temperature increased in different parts of India With increase in temperature (by about 2 - 4º C) the wheat & rice potential grain yields would reduce in most places Reductions in wheat yields as a result of climate change are predicted to be more pronounced for rain fed crops (as opposed to irrigated crops) Boundary changes due to climate change in areas suitable for growing crops such as wheat is predicted Fig: Boundary Changes for Productivity of Irrigate Wheat Development Alternatives Source: MoEF, DEFRA, 2008

Projected Climate Change Impacts - Agriculture Wheat yields in central India are likely to suffer a drop upto 2 % in a pessimistic scenario Sorghum ( C4 plant) does not show any significant response to increase in CO2 and hence these scenarios are unlikely to affect its yield. However, if the temperature increases are higher, western India may show some negative impact on productivity due to reduced crop durations An increase of 3oC in temperature nullified the positive effect of doubled CO2 on soyabean yield at few places in Madhya Pradesh. In rainfed groundnut, the studies have indicated that yields would increase under doubled CO2, and temperature increase up to 3°C if the rainfall did not decline. Reduction of rainfall by 10 per cent reduced the yield by 12.4 per cent. (NATCOM –I) NATCOM –I indicates that in the agro-ecosystems where inputs used remains low, as in rainfed systems, the direct impact of climatic change would be small. It is also expected that the response of crops to the added fertilizer would be lower, as climate becomes warmer. Therefore, much higher levels of fertilizer may need to be applied Development Alternatives

Projected Climate Change Impacts – Forests Large scale shifting and change of forest biomes is predicted for India Studies indicate shifts in area and boundary of Dry Savanna in semi arid region The shift will have adverse implications on biodiversity , forest-dependent communities, affecting markets, water supply, and energy production Figure: Impact on Forest Biomes (B2 scenario) Development Alternatives Source: MoEF, DEFRA, 2008

Vulnerability of Communities Communities in the region are particularly vulnerable to climate change dependence on climate sensitive sectors limited capacities to anticipate and effectively respond to climate change Climate change would have an adverse impact on food security, energy security , livelihood security Number of factors contribute to adaptive capacity and vulnerability of communities such as physical and socioeconomic factors Fig: Factors Contributing to Vulnerability Development Alternatives Source: WOTR

Biophysical Vulnerability Arid and semi arid regions will particularly be vulnerable to climate change impacts due to comparatively natural drier characteristics Around 68 per cent of the country is prone to drought in varying degrees. Rain is also expected to reduce in frequency but increase in intensity. All these will result in frequent droughts and floods Climate change will impact the economy of arid and semi-arid regions due to increase in overall water stress Degrading natural resource base and land degradation is further adding to the problem Semi arid and arid region have comparatively low adaptive capacity (agriculture sector) based on biophysical , social and technological indicators Development Alternatives

Biophysical Vulnerability Fig: Drought Prone Areas of India Figure: Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity Source: State of Environment Atlas of India 2007, MoEF Source: TERI, 2004

Socio-economic Vulnerability High vulnerability to climate change due to low social capital Very few functional groups and networks low degree of collective action and co-operation few sources of information and means of communication Very low risk awareness related to climate change, water and agriculture. Lack of affordable and reliable energy supply - a major constraint in value addition and income generation Access to markets is an equally important factor Development Alternatives

Key Challenges Water and Food Security Livelihood Security Energy Security Development Alternatives

Water Security Water stress is likely to be a major impact of climate change, with flows of some of major Indian rivers projected to fall by as much as a quarter Potential impacts of global warming on water resources include enhanced evaporation, geographical changes in precipitation intensity, duration and frequency, soil moisture, and the frequency and severity of droughts and floods Relatively small climatic changes can have huge impact on water resources, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions such as North-West India. This will have impacts on availability of drinking water , agriculture productivity leading to food insecurity Development Alternatives

Food Security Climate change will act as a multiplier of existing threats to food insecurity in India. By 2050, the risk of hunger is projected to increase by 10 – 20 per cent, and child malnutrition is anticipated to be 20 per cent higher compared to a no-climate change scenario In the past 50 years, there have been around 15 major droughts, due to which the productivity of rainfed crops in those years was affected FAO, 2008, report for India indicates that level of food insecurity is highest for states falling under arid and semi-arid region of India Decreasing availability of water and food will also increase sanitation and health problems and increase the risk of diseases and malnutrition Fig: Food Insecurity Map of India Development Alternatives Source: FAO 2008, Report on the State of Food Insecurity In Rural India

Energy Security Climate change in India will result in temperature rise and a changing precipitation pattern All these put together will affect the water requirement for agriculture which will be greater, resulting in a higher demand of energy for irrigation Development Alternatives

Livelihood Security Limited options of alternative livelihoods and widespread poverty continue to threaten livelihood security of millions of small and marginal farmers in the arid and semi arid regions With agriculture contributing significantly to the region’s economy , it is critical that policy addresses issues of loss of livelihood with changes in crops, as well as the need to shift some regions to new crops, and the associated skills training required

Government Response Measures National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture - dry-land agriculture has been identified under the mission as one the important areas Drought Prone Area Programme (DPAP) Desert Development Programme (DDP) Integrated Watershed Management Programme (IWMP) Swajaldhara (The Rural Water Supply Program) Social welfare schemes MG-NREGS , Self Help Groups income scheme, Swarna Jayanti Gram Sarojgar Yojana , Bhoomi Sangragshan Yojana , Hariyali Yojana Development Alternatives

New and Emerging Approaches Need to explore new dimensions to climate change efforts such as linking poverty alleviation/economic development with climate change NAPCC is probably the first official document that has made an attempt to indicate the linkages identifies measures that promote development objectives while also yielding co-benefits for addressing climate change effectively Emerging approaches include LC-CR , Adaptive Social Protection ( are contextual and debatable) Development Alternatives

Figure: Adaptive Social Protection LC-CR Development – A conceptual framework Development Alternatives

Unfinished Agenda Is vulnerability among the communities in different arid and semi-arid regions across India same or different? If similar than can similar policy measures be applied? If different than why? What are new and merging approaches to deal with climate change in arid and semi-arid regions generating co-benefits of mitigation, adaptation and development (to ensure food, livelihood, water, energy and social security of communities)? What kinds of systems are required for effective execution of existing and future policies in terms of: Institutional Mechanisms Financing Mechanisms Further research needs Role of key stakeholders (communities, private, government, global)? Development Alternatives

Thank You Development Alternatives