Experimental Long Range Flood Outlook Roham Abtahi Nat’l Hydrologic Information Coordinator OCWWS HSD

Experimental Long Range Flood Outlook

How is LRO produced? RFCs 1.Run Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) 2.Run script which parses CS data by % of exceeding minor, moderate and major flood stage 3.Transmits output to NIDS, who populates national level AHPS “Experimental Long Range River Flood Risk” tabExperimental Long Range River Flood Risk” Issuance Timing 1.RFCs are required to transmit 3 month outlooks by the 28 th of each month. 2.At 23z on the 28 th, the national map switches to the next three month valid time 3.Can send updates as often as they like, but updates are not required

WFO Hydro Program Manager Role WFOs 1.Check your local HSA to make sure long range probs look reasonable 2.Look for inconsistencies between color of forecast point, and actual exceedance graph of that point What do I do if I find an error? 1.Call RFC and let them know – most errors will be solved at this level 2.Contact your Regional HPM 3.Submit a TOC ticket (rare case) Raw national level compilation of RFC probability data water.weather.gov/ahps/download.php

Questions? Alaska Region: Western Region: Central Region: Southern Region: Eastern Region: Pacific Region: No long range forecast points Me: ext