1. Logistical Verification Forecast Services in IHFS Mary Mullusky RFC Verification Workshop, August 14-16 2007

2. 2 Outline Logistical Verification Measures Forecast Services Attributes of Forecast Services Forecast Services GUI Demo Future Lab Exercise Review Lab and Questions

3. 3 Logistical Verification Measures What are logistical verification measures? –Measures that evaluate the overall quality of a forecast service –Typically measure non-skill attributes –Answer questions like  What new types of forecasts have been developed?  Is the number of forecast points increasing or decreasing?  Have computational improvements reduced the effort to issue a forecast?  Have methodological improvements reduced the time it takes to prepare a basin for forecasting

4. 4 Logistical Verification Measures A comprehensive description of service efficiency include the following logistical verification measures: –Characterizing point forecasts by service type, frequency and location (Forecast Services) –Characterizing areal forecasts by service type, frequency and location – Identifying daily the number of issued forecasts by type and location –Quantifying the person effort required to set up a basin for forecasting, including data gathering, calibration, model setup and implementation efforts –Quantifying the person effort required to issue each type of forecast, including manual quality control of input data, forecaster run-time modifications and forecaster review and analysis –Quantifying the timeliness of issued forecasts Goal is to standardize and automate the collection of these measures

5. 5 Forecast Point Services Forecast Services measure what hydrologic services the NWS provides; where these services are provided; and how often. The types of forecast services include: –Data Point Service: all locations on a river/stream for which observed data is input to RFC or WFO hydrologic forecast procedures, or included in public hydrologic products. For the purposes of logistical verification, all locations along a river or stream for which hydrologic forecast and warning services are provided (i.e., forecast points) should be included as a data service. –Deterministic Forecast Service: all forecast points for which a single-value forecast is produced –Ensemble Forecast Service: all forecast points for which ensemble forecasting is used to generate forecasts and associated uncertainty information. –Water Supply Forecast Service: all forecast points for which water supply forecasts are provided

6. 6 Forecast Point Services These four Forecast Services tables (Data Point Service, Deterministic Forecast Service, Ensemble Forecast Service, Water Supply Forecast Service) are included in OB8.1 IHFS-DB –Data Service table is initially populated with records in the IngestFilter which have pe codes = H* OR Q* AND ts codes = F* AND have their lid's appear in the RiverStat table RFC personnel will be responsible for populating and maintaining all forecast services information for each lid in the RFC area of responsibility

7. 7 Attributes of Forecast Services Data Point Service (Data and Forecast Points) lidlocation id flood_thresuser defined flood threshold exceed_probFrom a historical analysis, the probability of exceeding the user defined flood threshold. (%) service_typeservice type (data or forecast service) anal_start_datestart date for the historical analysis of the exceedance probability for a given flood threshold anal_end_dateend date for the historical analysis of the exceedance probability for a given flood threshold impl_datedate observed data first used as input to RFC hydrologic procedures web_datedate observed hydrograph first available on web

8. 8 Attributes of Forecast Services Deterministic Forecast Service lidlocation id snow_methodsnow computational method for the segment hydrol_methodhydrologic computation method for the segment reservoir_modelreservoir model for the segment upstream_seglocation id of upstream point. Upstream point may be forecast or data point. If current segment is a headwater, then this value is set to ‘xxxxx’. hydraul_methodRouting computational method for the segment def_issue_critMinimum issuance criteria for the forecast service hours_qpfhours of QPF used in streamflow forecast frequpd_normalnormal operations update frequency frequpd_floodflood operations update frequency

9. 9 Attributes of Forecast Services Deterministic Forecast Service (cont’d) frequpd_droughtDrought operations update frequency fcst_horizonforecast horizon hours_qtfhours of temperature forecast used in streamflow forecast hours_qzfhours of freezing level forecast used in streamflow forecast num_elev_zonesnumber of elevation zones in mountainous area may be 1,2 or 3 else should be set to 1 consumptive_useindicates consumptive use model is used for the segment (Y or N) channel_lossindicates channel loss model is used for the segment (Y or N) fcst_gen_methodforecast generation method impl_datedate service was first produce web_datedate official forecast hydrograph first available on AHPS website

10. 10 Attributes of Forecast Services Ensemble Forecast Service lidlocation id snow_methodsnow computation method for the segment hydrol_methodhydrologic computation method for the segment reservoir_modelreservoir model for the segment upstream_seglocation id of upstream point. Upstream point may be forecast or data point. If current segment is a headwater, then this value is set to ‘xxxxx’. hydraul_methodrouting computation method for the segment flowtype fcsttypeforecast time horizon type frequpd_normalnormal operations period of issuance frequpd_floodflood operations period of issuance frequpd_droughtdrought operations period of issuance

11. 11 Attributes of Forecast Services Ensemble Forecast Service (cont’d) fcst_horizonforecast horizon nummonclimnumber of months climotological forecasts are used in streamflow forecast (0 = N/A) numdayhydnumber of days hydrometeorological forecasts are used in streamflow forecast (0 = N/A) num_elev_zonesnumber of elevation zones in mountainous area may be 1,2 or 3else should be set to 1 consumptive_useindicates consumptive use model is used for the segment (Y or N) channel_lossindicates channel loss model is used for the segment (Y or N) post_processorpost processing model used to create the forecast impl_datedate service was first produced external_datedate product first available the external customers web_datedate graphical products first available on web

12. 12 Attributes of Forecast Services Water Supply Forecast Service lidlocation id watsup_methodcomputational method used to produce the water supply forecast watsup_coord_agencycoordinating agency for the water supply forecast frequpd_normalnormal operations period of issuance period_reqperiod required to be forecast watsup_critwater supply criteria or interest watsup_resp_agencyagency responsible for issuing the water supply forecast customer_descdescription of customers interested in the water supply forecast impl_datedate service was first produced web_datedate graphical products first available on web

13. 13 Forecast Services GUI Demo Start GUI with /awips/hydroapps/whfs/bin/start_fcstservice Demonstrate –Forecast Services Main Window (Service Table View) –Data Services (Initially Populated when you create tables) –Deterministic Forecast Services –Ensemble Forecast Services –Water Supply Forecast Services –Primary Keys –Foreign Keys –Drop Downs and Reference Table –Add/Modify/Delete

14. 14 Future Forecast Services Policy –Proposed Policy 10-924 requiring RFC to populate and maintain services field in the IHFS-DB for all data and forecast points National River Location DataBase (NRLDB) –Forecast Services tables pulled from RFCs and combined with WFO E-19 and E-19a information Other Logistical Measures –Implementation to be determined through the AHPS budget prioritization process

15. 15 Lab Exercise TRAC2 UCRC2 VRBU1 TADU1 For the above forecast points, enter the forecast services information and relate service attributes into the IHFS-DB. (This will be done by bulk input). Then, using the Forecast Services GUI make services changes as directed. TADU1 is a data point, the observed data is provided on the AHPS pages TRAC2 is a forecast point where forecasts are only issued when the forecast exceeds the action stage, it is a headwater basin UCRC2 is a mandatory daily forecast point, it is downstream of TADU1 and TRAC2 VRBU1 is a daily mandatory forecast point, it is downstream of UCRC2. Additionally, water supply forecasts are made at this point with both an ESP computational method and the SWS-Principle Components (Regression) method. Recently, the RFC has been experimenting with short-term ensembles at this location.

16. 16 Lab Exercise – Follow Up Review and Questions Survey; Needed GUI or database enhancements

17. 17 Thank you