1. Utilization of the Stony Brook University Mesoscale Ensemble System at WFO's and RFC's Jeffrey Tongue Robert Shedd NOAA/NWS

2. Overview Objective How and what data the NWS (WFO and RFC) is getting What we’re doing with it Example from Hurricane Jeanne

3. Objective Allow operational forecasters to improve: –Understanding NWP Systems. –Understanding NWP Parameterizations. –Utilization of ensemble systems. Demonstrate the value of local short range ensemble systems for research and operations.

4. NWS WFO Web Pages Data Within AWIPS Data within GFE Discussion groups and seminars.

5. Web Pages Pro’s –Availability –Easy of Access Con’s –Non interactive –Static Graphics –Precipitation Displays

7. AWIPS Pro’s –Interactive –Easy of Access Con’s –Timeliness –Consistency

8. AWIPS Timeliness –Internet speed improved –New Linux Cluster at SBU (ensemble data by 2-3 AM vs 8-10 AM) Consistency –New scripts Bottom Line – If you want to use research data in operations it MUST be consistently available and timely.

10. Ensemble Data Mainly Web Based Mainly looking at the QPF products

11. River Forecast Centers Hydrological Ensembles for MM5 QPF http://www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc/mm5_test.shtml

13. Currently 4 Locations Black River at Boonville, NY Smith River at Bristol, NH White River at West Hartford, VT Pemigewasset River at Woodstock, NH

14. Boonvillle Bristol W. Hartford Woodstock

15. Example of MM5 Ensemble driven River Stage

16. Case Example Hurricane Jeanne 27-29 September 04 4-5 Inches of Rain NYC/LI 2-3 Inches Lower Hudson Valley/CT

17. GOES IR 26/02Z – 29/20Z (6 h interval)

18. GFS 27/00Z Run: MSLP/1000-500 hPa Thickness Valid Sept 29 th 06Z

19. GFS 28/00Z Run: MSLP/1000-500 hPa Thickness Valid Sept 29 th 06Z

20. GFS 29/00Z Run: MSLP/1000-500 hPa Thickness Valid Sept 29 th 06Z

21. Eta 27/18Z Run: QPF – 24 Hours Ending Sept 29 th 12Z

22. GFS 28/00Z Run: QPF – 24 Hours Ending Sept 29 th 12Z

23. HPC Day 1 QPF – 24 Hours Ending Sept 29 th 12Z

24. Eta 28/06Z Run: QPF – 24 Hours Ending Sept 29 th 12Z

33. Rainfall New York City – 4.49 Inches Bridgehampton – 7.57 Inches Port Jervis – 1.44 Inches

34. Summary 40 FFW’s Issued (OKX CWA). A Flash Flood Watch Was Issued Tuesday Afternoon (28/18Z). NCEP/HPC Models Greatly Underestimated the Precipitation and the focus of the precip. Short Range ensemble showed consistency and the focus location of the QPF. Models/Ensemble under-predict heavy precip events.

35. Conclusions Use of Short Range Ensembles is critical. Forecasters do not “trust” experimental models/data. Forecasters need to continue to learn to integrate ensembles of models into the forecast process. GFE has “re-promoted” the model of the day concept.

36. Conclusions Timeliness and Reliability are key. Integration into GFE.

37. Some Future Plans Expand Ensemble Hydrographs Continue Outreach and Training Add members of the Ensemble to AWIPS Increase use of ensemble data in GFE Increase utilization of WS-eta Evaluation of local WRF element Increase ensemble use in GFE/NDFD

38. Additional