International Energy Workshop Venice, June Energy and CO 2 Efficiency in the European Manufacturing Sector: A Decomposition Analysis Dirk C. Böhm University of Hohenheim / Robert Bosch GmbH, Langemarckstraße 9, D Rastatt, Dirk C. Böhm | 19/06/2009 | „Energy and CO2 Efficiency in the European Manufacturing Sector: A Decomposition Analysis” 2009 International Energy Workshop Venice, June
International Energy Workshop Venice, June Background and Motivation the industrial sector accounts for nearly one-third of global energy use. it is not only one of the largest consumers of energy, but also one of the largest energy- related carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emitters energy efficiency efforts in the manufacturing sector help to cut corporate costs, reduce dependency on energy imports and mitigate Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. Dirk C. Böhm | 19/06/2009 | „Energy and CO2 Efficiency in the European Manufacturing Sector: A Decomposition Analysis” 2009 International Energy Workshop Venice, June Energy demand of industries analysedCO 2 emissions of industries analysed
International Energy Workshop Venice, June Background and Motivation the industrial sector accounts for nearly one-third of global energy use. it is not only one of the largest consumers of energy, but also one of the largest energy- related carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emitters energy efficiency efforts in the manufacturing sector help to cut corporate costs, reduce dependency on energy imports and mitigate Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. Key questions: is the trend in industrial energy demand primarily dependent on the impact of changes in energy intensity or structural, i.e. product-mix effects? to what extent do changes in the fuel-mix in industrial energy consumption and in electricity generation (i.e. emission coefficient changes) support mitigation of CO 2 emissions in the manufacturing sector? Dirk C. Böhm | 19/06/2009 | „Energy and CO2 Efficiency in the European Manufacturing Sector: A Decomposition Analysis” 2009 International Energy Workshop Venice, June
International Energy Workshop Venice, June The Concept of Decomposition Analysis Dirk C. Böhm | 19/06/2009 | „Energy and CO2 Efficiency in the European Manufacturing Sector: A Decomposition Analysis” 2009 International Energy Workshop Venice, June historical changes in economic or environmental indicators can be analysed by assessing the underlying forces or determinants that are responsible for these changes LMDI I: Log-Mean Divisia Index Method I (Ang and Liu, 2001) Additive time-series decomposition for energy demand and CO 2 emissions Main application areas for the index decomposition analysis: energy demand and supply analysis, e.g. Jenne and Cattell (1983), Howarth et al. (1991), Farla and Blok (2000), Park (1992) energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, e.g. Ang and Zhang (1999), Greening et al. (1998), Lise (2006), Lee and Oh (2006)
International Energy Workshop Venice, June Methodology: Decomposition of Energy demand Dirk C. Böhm | 19/06/2009 | „Energy and CO2 Efficiency in the European Manufacturing Sector: A Decomposition Analysis” 2009 International Energy Workshop Venice, June
International Energy Workshop Venice, June Methodology: Decomposition of CO 2 emissions Dirk C. Böhm | 19/06/2009 | „Energy and CO2 Efficiency in the European Manufacturing Sector: A Decomposition Analysis” 2009 International Energy Workshop Venice, June
International Energy Workshop Venice, June Methodology: Decomposition of CO2 emissions Dirk C. Böhm | 19/06/2009 | „Energy and CO2 Efficiency in the European Manufacturing Sector: A Decomposition Analysis” 2009 International Energy Workshop Venice, June
International Energy Workshop Venice, June Data and Sources Time frame: Countries: France, Italy, Spain, Sweden and Belgium Q: Value Added at constant 2000 prices in national currencies by industry (Source: STAN) E: Total Final Energy Consumption in ktoe by industry and fuel (Source: IEA) C: CO 2 emissions in kg by industry and fuel (Source: IEA) Emission factors by fuel type (Source: IEA, IPCC) fuels : petroleum products, natural gas, coal and coal products, electricity ten manufacturing industries: Food and tobacco (FOD, ISIC Rev.3: 15-16) Textile and leather (TEX, ISIC Rev.3: 17-19) Wood and wood products (WOD, ISIC Rev.3: 20) Paper, pulp and printing (PAP, ISIC Rev.3: 21-22) Chemical and petrochemical (CHE, ISIC Rev.3: 24) Non-metallic minerals (NMM, ISIC Rev.3: 26) Iron and steel (IRS, ISIC Rev.3: ) Non-ferrous metals (MET, ISIC Rev.3: ) Machinery (MAC, ISIC Rev.3: 28-33) Transport equipment (TRA, ISIC Rev.3: 34-35) Dirk C. Böhm | 19/06/2009 | „Energy and CO2 Efficiency in the European Manufacturing Sector: A Decomposition Analysis” 2009 International Energy Workshop Venice, June
International Energy Workshop Venice, June Data: Industrial Activity and Energy Consumption Dirk C. Böhm | 19/06/2009 | „Energy and CO2 Efficiency in the European Manufacturing Sector: A Decomposition Analysis” 2009 International Energy Workshop Venice, June share of the industrial sector in relation to the total value added of the economy has fallen significantly in all countries share of industry in total final energy consumption has also been declining for most of the countries The ten manufacturing industries analysed in this study account for approximately 80% of industrial activity and around 90% of all energy consumed in the industrial sector of the respective countries
International Energy Workshop Venice, June Result Overview: Energy decomposition Dirk C. Böhm | 19/06/2009 | „Energy and CO2 Efficiency in the European Manufacturing Sector: A Decomposition Analysis” 2009 International Energy Workshop Venice, June Strong positive activity effects Partly compensated by negative energy intensity effects (especially France) Significant negative structural effects for Spain and Sweden
International Energy Workshop Venice, June CO 2 decomposition result overview Dirk C. Böhm | 19/06/2009 | „Energy and CO2 Efficiency in the European Manufacturing Sector: A Decomposition Analysis” 2009 International Energy Workshop Venice, June high activity effects due to rise in industrial output Negative energy intensity effects (FRA, ITA, SWE) Considerable negative emission factor effects (FRA, ITA, ESP, BEL) Heterogeneous structural and energy mix effects
International Energy Workshop Venice, June CO 2 decomposition results by country: Belgium Dirk C. Böhm | 19/06/2009 | „Energy and CO2 Efficiency in the European Manufacturing Sector: A Decomposition Analysis” 2009 International Energy Workshop Venice, June In the first years activity effect was offset by energy productivity gains and a lower emission factor of electricity generation in the 1980s (negative coefficient effect) in the 1990s the negative energy-mix and structural effect were able to reduce CO 2 output while no more energy productivity gains could be achieved
International Energy Workshop Venice, June CO 2 decomposition results by country: France Dirk C. Böhm | 19/06/2009 | „Energy and CO2 Efficiency in the European Manufacturing Sector: A Decomposition Analysis” 2009 International Energy Workshop Venice, June Slowly accumulating activity effect was overcompensated by continuous rise in energy productivity (negative energy intensity effect). A positive structure effect was offset by an even larger negative emission factor effect The fuel-mix effect remained small but negative during the whole observation period.
International Energy Workshop Venice, June CO 2 decomposition results by country: Sweden Dirk C. Böhm | 19/06/2009 | „Energy and CO2 Efficiency in the European Manufacturing Sector: A Decomposition Analysis” 2009 International Energy Workshop Venice, June Comparable activity and negative energy intensity effect Emission cuts in periods where fuel-mix effect was significant Very low structural effect and emission factor effect
International Energy Workshop Venice, June CO 2 decomposition results by country: Italy Dirk C. Böhm | 19/06/2009 | „Energy and CO2 Efficiency in the European Manufacturing Sector: A Decomposition Analysis” 2009 International Energy Workshop Venice, June Cumulated activity effect slightly larger than the effect from increasing energy productivity Due to a more favorable fuel-mix in power generation CO 2 emissions could be reduced after 2003 low structural effect and fuel-mix effect
International Energy Workshop Venice, June CO 2 decomposition results by country: Spain Dirk C. Böhm | 19/06/2009 | „Energy and CO2 Efficiency in the European Manufacturing Sector: A Decomposition Analysis” 2009 International Energy Workshop Venice, June Up to the mid 1990s reduction of energy intensity and negative emission factor effect In the last ten years no more energy productivity gains while the industrial sector experienced a sharp rise in activity; even negative fuel-mix and structural effect were not able to keep carbon dioxide emissions below 1981 levels
International Energy Workshop Venice, June Conclusion large energy productivity gains in most countries in addition to the energy productivity gains, changes in the fuel-mix and emission coefficients can support greenhouse gas mitigation efforts in the industry sector A negative structural effect, i.e. a shift to less energy- and carbon-intensive industries within the manufacturing sector on a large scale could not be observed the coefficient effect is significant for those countries which built up nuclear power capacity for electricity generation in the 1980s negative fuel-mix effects were accomplished by a fuel switch from coal and petroleum products towards natural gas and electricity consumption efforts to reduce energy consumption per unit of output in the industry sector have been successful over the last 25 years Energy productivity gains are the most effective source for greenhouse gas mitigation, followed by a fuel-switch in power generation and supported by a fuel switch in final energy consumption Dirk C. Böhm | 19/06/2009 | „Energy and CO2 Efficiency in the European Manufacturing Sector: A Decomposition Analysis” 2009 International Energy Workshop Venice, June
International Energy Workshop Venice, June Thank you for your attention! Revised version available. Please contact Dirk C. Böhm | 19/06/2009 | „Energy and CO2 Efficiency in the European Manufacturing Sector: A Decomposition Analysis” 2009 International Energy Workshop Venice, June
International Energy Workshop Venice, June Dirk C. Böhm | 19/06/2009 | „Energy and CO2 Efficiency in the European Manufacturing Sector: A Decomposition Analysis” 2009 International Energy Workshop Venice, June BACKUP
International Energy Workshop Venice, June Energy decomposition results by country: France Dirk C. Böhm | 19/06/2009 | „Energy and CO2 Efficiency in the European Manufacturing Sector: A Decomposition Analysis” 2009 International Energy Workshop Venice, June Backup
International Energy Workshop Venice, June Energy decomposition results by country: Italy Dirk C. Böhm | 19/06/2009 | „Energy and CO2 Efficiency in the European Manufacturing Sector: A Decomposition Analysis” 2009 International Energy Workshop Venice, June Backup
International Energy Workshop Venice, June Energy decomposition results by country: Spain Dirk C. Böhm | 19/06/2009 | „Energy and CO2 Efficiency in the European Manufacturing Sector: A Decomposition Analysis” 2009 International Energy Workshop Venice, June Backup
International Energy Workshop Venice, June Energy decomposition results by country: Sweden Dirk C. Böhm | 19/06/2009 | „Energy and CO2 Efficiency in the European Manufacturing Sector: A Decomposition Analysis” 2009 International Energy Workshop Venice, June Backup
International Energy Workshop Venice, June Energy decomposition results by country: Belgium Dirk C. Böhm | 19/06/2009 | „Energy and CO2 Efficiency in the European Manufacturing Sector: A Decomposition Analysis” 2009 International Energy Workshop Venice, June Backup
International Energy Workshop Venice, June Output shares and energy intensity development by industry Dirk C. Böhm | 19/06/2009 | „Energy and CO2 Efficiency in the European Manufacturing Sector: A Decomposition Analysis” 2009 International Energy Workshop Venice, June Backup
International Energy Workshop Venice, June Dirk C. Böhm | 19/06/2009 | „Energy and CO2 Efficiency in the European Manufacturing Sector: A Decomposition Analysis” 2009 International Energy Workshop Venice, June Backup
International Energy Workshop Venice, June Dirk C. Böhm | 19/06/2009 | „Energy and CO2 Efficiency in the European Manufacturing Sector: A Decomposition Analysis” 2009 International Energy Workshop Venice, June Backup
International Energy Workshop Venice, June Dirk C. Böhm | 19/06/2009 | „Energy and CO2 Efficiency in the European Manufacturing Sector: A Decomposition Analysis” 2009 International Energy Workshop Venice, June Backup
International Energy Workshop Venice, June Dirk C. Böhm | 19/06/2009 | „Energy and CO2 Efficiency in the European Manufacturing Sector: A Decomposition Analysis” 2009 International Energy Workshop Venice, June Backup
International Energy Workshop Venice, June Dirk C. Böhm | 19/06/2009 | „Energy and CO2 Efficiency in the European Manufacturing Sector: A Decomposition Analysis” 2009 International Energy Workshop Venice, June Backup
International Energy Workshop Venice, June The Concept of Decomposition Analysis Dirk C. Böhm | 19/06/2009 | „Energy and CO2 Efficiency in the European Manufacturing Sector: A Decomposition Analysis” 2009 International Energy Workshop Venice, June Backup