WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble Seasonal Prediction for Summer 2014 Erik Swenson South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-5) IITM, Pune, India, April 2014

Outline  Introduction of WMO Lead Centre for LRFMME(WMO LC-LRFMME)  Seasonal Prediction for Summer Oceanic condition and outlook - Forecast for summer (JJA) 2014  Summary

WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble

Why LC-LRFMME? LRF model outputs are not fully used due to different standards. It would be quite useful if all GPCs share their outputs with all regions. To use outputs more widely and effectively, we need linkage between GPCs and users.  If many GPCs’ products are combined by Lead Centre for LRF MME, seasonal and long-range prediction can show significant improvement and contribute to disaster prevention and mitigation, as well as better socio- economic planning taking into account variable climatic conditions by fully using GPCs’ products

WMO Global Producing Centers Melbourne: Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), Australia Beijing: China Meteorological Administration (CMA)/ Bejing Climate Center (BCC) Washington: Climate Prediction Center (CPC), NOAA, United States of America ECMWF: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Tokyo: Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)/ Tokyo Climate Centre (TCC) Seoul: Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Toulouse: Meteo-France Exeter: Met Office, United Kingdom Montreal: Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) Pretoria: South African Weather Services (SAWS) Moscow: Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia CPTEC: Center for weather forecasts and climate studies/ National institute for space research (INPE)

List of GPCs : system configuration information BeijingCPTECECMWFEXETERMelbourneMontrealMoscowPretoriaSeoulTokyoToulouseWashington (BCC)(CPTEC)(ECMWF)(EXETER)(POAMA)(MSC)(HMC)(SAWS)(GDAPS)(TCC)(Toulouse)(NCEP) Model Res. T63/L16T62/L28T255/L ºl x 0.56º /L85 T47L17T ºx º /L28 T42/L19T106/L º x1.875º /L40 T63L91T126/L64 Forecast Forecasting range 5 months6 months 5 months8 months11 months3 months4 months5 months6 months 8 months Data Mean, Climate Mean, Climate AnomalyMean Mean, Anomaly Mean, Climate MeanAnomaly Mean, Climate Mean, Anomaly Mean, Anomaly Members (2model x 10) Hindcast Period 1983~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~2010 DataOOXOOOOXOOXO Members (2model x 10) Variable: T2m, SST, PREC, MSLP, T850, Z500 Resolution: 2.5 o x 2.5 o (144 x73 grids) : 2-Tier GCM : 1-Tier GCM (coupled)

- Individual forecast  plots for each GPC forecast anomalies in common graphical format (Rectangular, Time series, Stereographic type, etc.)  Consistency map  SST Plume (Nino3.4 SST anomalies) - Deterministic Multi-model Ensemble  Simple composite mean(SCM)  Regular Multiple Regression  Singular Value Decomposition(SVD) - Probabilistic Multi-model Ensemble  tercile-based categorical probabilities Graphical products -Both forecast and hindcast of monthly mean anomalies of the GPC’s ensemble mean for lead 1-3, following the month Of submissions 2m temperature Precipitation Mean sea level pressure 850hPa temperature 500hPa geopotential height Sea surface temperature NB : data only available from GPCs who Allow redistribution of their data Digital products Digital and Graphical products of LC-LRFMME -RCOFs, RCCs and NMHSs -WMO’s Global Seasonal Climate Update(GSCU) and etc. LC-LRFMME products used in :

Graphical products : Individual forecast ALL MAP Consistency map Time Series Stereographic Nino 3.4 Index

Graphical products : MME Deterministic MME SCM SLRSVD Probabilistic MME

Seasonal Prediction for Summer 2014

WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble Oceanic Condition and Outlook

Recent conditions for Indo-Pacific SST 27 Feb14 Mar 29 Mar 13 Apr Courtesy of NOAA CPC

ENSO Prediction Nino3.4 DMI

WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble Forecast for summer (JJA) 2014 Initialized ~ 1 Apr

Individual Predictions : 2m temperature

Individual Predictions : Precipitation

Predictions of Multi-Model Ensemble Probabilistic - PMME SCM

Summary  Oceanic Prediction  ENSO prediction - Warming expected consistent with developing El Niño  IOD prediction - Neutral conditions through boreal summer/early autumn  Southern subtropical IO warm SST expected persist  Atmospheric Prediction  Sightly wet : Subtropical West Pacific  Dry : Maritime Continent, Arabian Sea, India (particularly north/central), Nepal, Maldives, Sri Lanka probabilities ~40-60%

Thank you WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble