1. Richard Graham (Met Office Hadley Centre, Chair ET-OPSLS)
Overview: WMO ET-OPSLS (Expert Team on Operational Predictions from Sub-seasonal to Longer Time-Scales)
Richard Graham (Met Office Hadley Centre, Chair ET-OPSLS)
Joint WGSIP16/ET-OPSLS meeting, 10 March 2014, Exeter, UK
© Crown copyright Met Office

2. CBS - OPAG on Data-Processing and Forecasting System (OPAG-DPFS)
GDPFS main purpose: make available to Members in the most cost-effective way meteorological analyses and forecast products.
The design, functions, organizational structure (e.g. RMSCs) and operations of the GDPFS shall be in accordance with Members' needs and their ability to contribute to and benefit from the system.
The ET-OPSLS guides design, functions, organizational structure for long-range forecasting, notably: Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts (GPCs) and associated Lead Centres (LC)
ToRs:
The Climate Services Information System (CSIS) of the GFCS will build on GDPFS infrastructure – ET-OPSLS a joint CBS/CCl team since 2012.
© Crown copyright Met Office

3. The 12 WMO-designated GPCs
GPC name
Centre
System (ensemble:hindcast/forecast)
Resolution (atmosphere)
Hindcast period used
Beijing
Beijing Climate Centre
Coupled (48/48)
T63/L16
CPTEC
Centre for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies
2-tier (10/15)
T62/L28
ECMWF
European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts
Coupled (15/51)
T255/L91
Exeter
Met Office Hadley Centre
Coupled (12/42)
0.83x0.56°/L85
Melbourne
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Coupled (30/30)
T47/L17
Montreal
Meteorological Service of Canada
Coupled (20/20)
T63 L31/L35
Moscow
Hydromet Centre of Russia
2-tier (10/20)
1.1°x1.4°/L28
Pretoria
South African Weather Service
2-tier
(6/6)
T42/L19
Seoul
Korean Meteorological Agency
2-tier (20/20)
T106/L21
Tokyo
Japan Meteorological Agency
Coupled (10/51)
T95/L40
Toulouse
Météo-France
Coupled (11/51)
T127/L31
Washington
National Centres for Environmental Prediction
Coupled (15/40)
T126/L64
The 12 WMO-designated GPCs
ET-OPSLS defined:
designation criteria
minimum forecast products
verification requirements
Graham et al. 2011, Clim Res

4. GPCs and Lead Centres 12 designated GPCs; 2 designated Lead Centres
Designated Lead Centre: verification
LC-SVSLRF
(BoM & CMC)
Designated Lead Centre: forecasts
LC-LRFMME
(KMA & NCEP)
746 users, 117 countries
RCC
RCC
RCC
RCOF
NMHS
© Crown copyright Met Office

5. GPC minimum products and data supply to LC-LRFMME http://www.wmolc.org
Mandatory
calibrated probability forecasts for tercile categories of:
2m temperature; precipitation; SST (applies only to GPCs using coupled models)
Range: at least first 3 months following month of issue
available on GPC website (graphical products and/or data)
Provided to LC-LRFMME
monthly anomalies for all ensemble members for:
2m temperature, precipitation; MSLP; SST; 850hPa temperature; 500 hPa height
hindcasts also supplied by most GPCs
GDPFS: Global Data Producing and Forecasting Systems
© Crown copyright Met Office 5

6. February forecasts of MAM ensemble mean precipitation anomaly, Greater Horn of Africa – used at GHACOF36 (from LC-LRFMME)
© Crown copyright Met Office

7. MAM multi-model precipitation anomaly
LC-LRFMME deterministic multi-model products for MAM user interactive
MAM multi-model precipitation anomaly
12 model
ensemble mean
4 two-tier models
8 coupled models
© Crown copyright Met Office

8. 9-GPC multi-model probabilistic forecast, MAM 2014
MAM precipitation
© Crown copyright Met Office

9. LC-LRFMME model consistency, MAM and GHACOF36 consensus
MAM consensus
GHACOF36
Held in Entebbe, coordinated by ICPAC 35 40 25
Number of models with negative/positive ensemble-mean anomalies
© Crown copyright Met Office

10. GPC products from LC-LRFMME website: DJF 2010/11: ensemble mean pmsl anomaly
Exeter
ECMWF
Toulouse
Washington
Beijing
Melbourne
Tokyo
Observed anomalies
Seoul
Montreal
Pretoria

11. The Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU)
Example page from draft GSCU Mark 0
LC-LRFMME
temperature
precipitation
International consensus on current state of climate plus outlook next for 3 months;
Will extend existing ‘state of climate’ bulletins and El Niño/La Niña updates;
Addresses: major climate modes and indices, temperature and precipitation;
Users: RCCs, NMHSs and RCOFs (later: interpretation for globally acting users, e.g. aid agencies);
illustrative
Being developed by CCl Task Team for GSCU, with CBS - priority activity in the implementation plan for the GFCS

12. Standard Verification System for Long-Range Forecasts (SVSLRF)
Scores for probability forecasts:
Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and scores
Reliability and sharpness diagrams
Score for deterministic forecasts:
Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS) and 3 component decomposition
Lead Centre: LC-SVSLRF operated by CMC (Montreal) and BoM (Melbourne)
© Crown copyright Met Office

13. Example LC-SVSLRF GPC reliability and sharpness, ROC diagrams and ROC maps: precip, tropics, DJF, 1-month lead
Reliability and sharpness
ROC
2 models from JMA, 1 from Canada (MSC) and the UKMO (labelled as test)
JMA hybrid very reliaible
ROC skill map
© Crown copyright Met Office

14. LC-SVSLRF ROC scores lower tercile MAM precip, GHA
0.7
© Crown copyright Met Office

15. WMO workshop on Operational Long-range Forecasting: GPCs and RCCs in support of NMHSs and RCOFs
25-27 November 2013
INMET, Brasilia, Brazil

16. Workshop conclusions/recommendations: on ET-OPSLS agenda this week
Use of GPC and LC products is well established at RCCs and RCOFs, GPC and LC products are, in many cases, essential for their operations
There is a need for:
improved availability/accessibility of forecast/hindcast data;
improved availability and consistency of verification info;
new products: ocean and atmosphere indices, extremes seasons;
longer lead time and earlier issue of LC-LRFMME products;
Capacity development contributions: training of RCC/NMHSs in forecast interpretation and post-processing tools, guidance manuals;
improved GPC/RCC/NMHSs interaction: annual workshop on long-range forecasting;
improved communication of operational needs to research (WGSIP): e.g. subseasonal prediction, development of new products (e.g. sea-ice extent), evaluation of RCM downscaling of seasonal forecasts.
© Crown copyright Met Office

17. Thank you! Any questions?

18. Current Task Teams (TT) under the ET-OPSLS
TT1: Organise workshop on Operational Long-range Forecasting: GPCs and RCCs in support of NMHSs and RCOFs (hosted by INMET, Brasilia, Nov 2013)
Main focus on seasonal range
TT2: Develop revised strategies for verification exchange
TT3: Scoping/implementation of sub-seasonal forecasts
TT4: Scoping/implementation of longer-than-seasonal forecasts (multi-annual to decadal)
© Crown copyright Met Office

19. GPC designation criteria
have fixed production cycles and time of issuance;
provide an agreed minimum set of long-range forecast products;
provide an agreed set of forecast skill measures (WMO Standard Verification System for LRF);
provide up-to-date information on forecast methodology used;
make products accessible to users through website and/or GTS/internet
GDPFS: Global Data Producing and Forecasting Systems
(adapted from manual on the GDPFS)
© Crown copyright Met Office 19

20. CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS: 1st term of reference (of 9)
On the basis of requirements from Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) , Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services….
…and in the context of the Climate Services Information System of the Global Framework for Climate Services…
…guide future development, outputs and coordination of components in the production of long-range forecasts.
….[namely], Global Producing Centres (GPCs) of Long-range Forecasts and associated Lead Centres for multi-modelling and verification.
Membership: representatives from the 12 WMO-designated GPCs plus two CCl representatives
GDPFS: Global Data Producing and Forecasting Systems
© Crown copyright Met Office 20

21. Hindcast periods of GPCs79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
GPC1
GPC2 3 . 12
© Crown copyright Met Office