1. GPC Pretoria: Progress Report
MEETING OF THE CBS EXPERT TEAM ON OPERATIONAL PREDICTIONS FROM SUB-SEASONAL TO LONGER-TIME SCALES, EXETER, UK, MARCH 2014 
GPC Pretoria: Progress Report
Asmerom F. Beraki  
South African Weather Service Pretoria, South Africa,
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2. Introduction
GPC-Pretoria has implemented new global ensemble forecasting system (EPS).
The new EPS (comprise of AGCM and OAGCM) is more robust than the old EPS
Capable of supporting the sub-seasonal to seasonal climate forecasts (both mandatory and additional products)
Supporting the SAWS Multi-Model System (MMS) - SADC
MMS intents to support the National roadmap for implementation of GFCS
Research activities primarily focus on:
Forecasting systems improvement
improved access and uptake of LRF products by users
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3. Ensemble Prediction System (OAGCM)
ECHAM4.5 AGCM and MOM3 OGCM coupled with Multiple Program Multiple Data (MPMD) coupler software:
Initialized with realistic atmosphere, ocean and land states.
Hindcast period
T42/L19 AGCM and variable horizontal resolution/ L25 OGCM
10 Ensembles (hindcast) and more flexible for real-time forecasts to expand ensemble size
Supports seasonal timescale
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4. Ensemble Prediction System (OAGCM): Predictive skill
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5. Ensemble Prediction System (OAGCM): Predictive skill
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6. Ensemble Prediction System (ECHAM4p5 AGCM): Predictive skill
Enhancements from current forecasting system:
Better representation of uncertainty in the atmospheric state (initialized with NCEP/DOE reanalysis)
Better description of uncertainty in the boundary (forced with MMES SST and its uncertainty envelope)
Initialized with observed soil moisture (CPC)
Demonstrates consistent skill improvement
Hindcast period
30 Ensembles
Supports sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales
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7. Global seasonal climate outlook
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8. Regional (National) seasonal climate outlook
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9. Concluding remarks
GPC-Pretoria implemented new forecasting system and would contribute to the sub-seasonal and seasonal timescales.
Research informed by users requirement and more focus on forecast improvement (limited resources)
More focus on applications, product utilization and stakeholders engagement (capacity development)
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