1. Seasonal Climate Outlook for Summer 2013 over DPRK
Pong-Chol Choe, Chol-Min Kim
Central Meteorological Forecasting Center, SHMA, DPR Korea

2. Contents
1. Recent Climate Features 2. ENSO Monitoring & Prediction 3. Dynamic & Statistical Predictions

3. 1. Recent Climate Features

4. Variation of Temperature in Summer(JJA)

5. Variation of Precipitation in Summer(JJA)

6. The State of Climate in Summer 2012 (JJA)
Mean temperature 21.7℃(+0.4℃)
Jun. 19.5℃(+0.8℃)
Jul. 22.4℃(+0.2℃)
Aug. 23.1℃(+0.8℃)
Precipitation 757.6㎜(136％)
Western part 754~1081㎜(129~185％)
Eastern part 365~951㎜(71~185％)
Northern Inland region 447~925㎜(97~202％)

7. The State of Climate in Winter 2013 (DJF)
Mean temperature -8.1℃(-2.3℃)
Dec. -9℃(-3.9℃)
Jan. -9.2℃(-1.1℃)
Feb. -6.2℃(-1.7℃)
Precipitation 55.3㎜(+13.1㎜)
Dec. 22.5㎜(+6.7㎜)
Jan. 12.9㎜(+0.3㎜)
Feb. 19.9㎜(+6.2㎜)

8. 2. ENSO Monitoring & Prediction

9. Equator Temperature Anomaly Profile FEB 2013
Recent ENSO Condition
Tropical Pacific SSTA FEB 2013
Time-Longitude SSTA (5N-5S)
-0.6℃
Equator Temperature Anomaly Profile FEB 2013
Mean SSTA in Niño3.4 area

10. ENSO Prediction of CMFC
Pacific SSTA prediction
by analogue method
for summer(JJA)
(1977, 1994)
6-month prediction of
Niño 3.4 index by statistical methods
Niño 3.4 index:
near or above normal
But significance :
relatively low

11. 3. Dynamic & Statistical Predictions

12. Dynamic Prediction by CAM3.0
∘ Meridional circulation :
strengthened in middle latitude
of East Asia
∘ Okhotsk high : stronger
∘ West Pacific Subtropical High :
weaker than normal
Interpreting the model
∘ Temperature: near normal
∘ Precipitation: below or near normal
JJA 500 hPa mean and anomaly

13. Physical and Statistical Prediction
500hPa Height Prediction & Anomaly by Seasonal Variation in Atmospheric Circulation
Temperature: near Normal
Precipitation: below or near normal
Composition years : 1973, 1980, 1992, 2005, 2011

14. Prediction MPI by BP Neural Network
Abnormal Precipitation and Temperature Predicted by MPI and Niño 3.4 Index
for Summer
Prediction MPI by BP Neural Network
Niño 3.4 Index State
Monsoon Activity
normal
Near or above normal
R : near normal
T : near normal
R : below normal

15. Summary 1. Seasonal climate outlook for summer 2013 over DPRK
Temperature : Near normal
Precipitation : Below or near normal
Cooling summer over the eastern coast area will be appeared
2. Monsoon activity: Near normal
3. Okhotsk high will be stronger and West Pacfic Subtropical High weaker than normal

16. Thank you !