1. Current Activity of WMO LC-LRFMME
WMO Lead Centre for
Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble
Current Activity of WMO LC-LRFMME
WMO LC-LRFMME Team

2. Contents 1 2 3 4 5 Background Goals Activities Products
Other activities 1
of WMO LC-LRFMME 2
of WMO LC-LRFMME 3
of WMO LC-LRFMME 4
of WMO LC-LRFMME 5
of WMO LC-LRFMME

3. Background of WMO LC-LRFMME
Lead Centre for Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble
RCOF: Regional Climate Outlook Forum
NMHS: National Meteorological and Hydrological Service
APCC: APEC Climate Center
GPC: Global Producing Centres
RCC: WMO Regional Climate Center
“CONDUIT”

4. Background of WMO LC-LRFMME
Why LRFMME?
GPC
RCC
GPC
RCC
GPC
GPC
• • •
• • •
GPC
LRF model forecasts have been under-utilized due to the proliferation of standards.
It would be quite useful if GPCs could share their forecasts with others.
Linkage among GPCs and other organizations including NMHSs, RCCs and RCOFs is needed to ensure wider and more effective use of LRF.
To use outputs more widely and effectively, we need linkage between
GPCs and users.
GPCs do recognize the usefulness of MME approach for long-range predictions.
Seasonal and long-range prediction skills are more likely to improve if the Lead Centre for LRF MME combines the forecasts from the many GPCs. Improved skill will likely contribute to disaster prevention and mitigation, as well as to better socio-economic planning.
 If many GPCs’ products are combined by Lead Centre for LRF MME , seasonal and long-range prediction will be better than now and will contribute to disaster prevention and mitigation, and contribute to better socio-economic planning that accounts for variable climatic conditions by fully using GPCs’s products.
NMHS
GPC
NMHS
“LINKAGE”

5. Background of WMO LC-LRFMME
12 GPCs

6. Background of WMO LC-LRFMME
WMO GPC meeting (October, Korea)
- KMA suggested the need of LC-LRFMME.
2005
WMO CCL meeting (November, China)
- KMA presented the need for establishing LC-LRFMME.
The joint ET of DPFS agreed needs of Lead Center(s) for collection of
globally available LRF to build MMEs (April, England).
2006
KMA, jointly with NCEP, completed submission of Lead Center
application form to the WMO (September).
WMO CBS-Ext.06 (November, Korea)
- The commission encouraged GPCs to provide their data to LC-LRFMME.
2007
LC-LRFMME established the data exchange system (June).
WMO/KMA GPC Workshop (September, Korea)
- Refining needs for and functions of LC-LRFMME
WMO Meeting of the ET on Extended and LRF (April, China).
- Redefining the goal and functions of LC-LRFMME
2008
WMO CBS-XIV (April, Croatia)
- LC-LRFMME was officially endorsed.
2009

7. Goals of WMO LC-LRFMME
Providing a conduit for sharing the model data for long-term climate predictions
Developing a well-calibrated MME system for mitigating the adverse impact of unfavorable climate conditions
Maximizing the benefit from favorable climate conditions
Providing high-quality climate prediction products
Developing advanced climate prediction technology

8. Activities of WMO LC-LRFMME
Redistributing digital forecast data
Generating GPCs forecasts in a standard format
Displaying a standardized set of Lead Centre products
GPC
Forecast data
GPC
Forecast data
•••
GPC
Forecast data
Maintaining a repository of documentation

9. Products of WMO LC-LRFMME

10. Products of WMO LC-LRFMME
Digital products
Graphical products

11. Products of WMO LC-LRFMME
Membership Grades
& Access
Grade A (GPCs)
:- Upload & Download
Digital data(limited)
- Download Image plots
Grade B (NMHSs, RCCs)
: - Download
Digital data(limited) &
Image plots
Grade C (Others)
: - Image plots

12. Products of WMO LC-LRFMME
Digital products
Graphical products

13. Products of WMO LC-LRFMME
Digital products
Graphical products
Individual forecast
Deterministic Multi-Model Ensemble
Probabilistic Multi-Model Ensemble

14. Products of WMO LC-LRFMME
Individual forecast

15. Products of WMO LC-LRFMME
Individual forecast: Map types
Rectangular
Time Series
Stereographic
All Map
Consistency Map
SST Plume

16. Products of WMO LC-LRFMME
Individual forecast: Period

17. Products of WMO LC-LRFMME
Individual forecast: GPCs

18. Arbitrary Region : Africa
Products of WMO LC-LRFMME
Individual forecast: Regions
Global
Australia
East Asia
North America
Russia
South America
South Asia
Arbitrary Region : Africa

19. Products of WMO LC-LRFMME
Individual forecast: Parameters
500hPa GPH
850hPa Temperature
Mean Sea Level Pressure
Precipitation
2m Temperature
Sea Surface Temperature

20. Products of WMO LC-LRFMME
Deterministic Multi-Model Ensemble

21. Products of WMO LC-LRFMME
DMME: Simple Composite Map

22. Products of WMO LC-LRFMME
DMME: Regular Multiple Regression

23. Products of WMO LC-LRFMME
DMME: Singular Value Decomposition

24. Products of WMO LC-LRFMME
Probabilistic Multi-Model Ensemble

25. Products of WMO LC-LRFMME
Probabilistic Multi-Model Ensemble

26. Other Activities of WMO LC-LRFMME
Support for Global Seasonal Climate Update
Objective of GSCU
A new Initiative for Consensus-Based Real Time Monitoring and Prediction of Seasonal Climate of the World
To provide the world community with an expert consensus on the state of the global climate with an outlook for the upcoming season along with information on robustness of the available forecast signals.

27. Other Activities of WMO LC-LRFMME
Support for Global Seasonal Climate Update
Objective of GSCU
To strengthen international collaboration and information flow between global, regional and national level operational climate monitoring and prediction centres
For use by RCCs, RCOFs and NMHSs for assistance in preparation of regional and national climate Updates

28. Other Activities of WMO LC-LRFMME
Support for Global Seasonal Climate Update
Contents of GSCU
Global-scale climate monitoring (current season)
Observed temperature
Observed precipitation
Climate anomalies and events
Potential evolution of the state of the climate (coming season)
Predicted mid-troposphere circulation
Predicted temperature
Predicted precipitation
How to use the Global Seasonal Climate Update
Appendices
Observed large-scale sea surface temperature indices
Observed large-scale surface pressure indices
Predicted large-scale sea surface temperature indices
Predicted variables with the two-month lead time

29. Korea Meteorological Administration
Contact Information
Thank you!
For more Information, Please contact
Korea Meteorological Administration
45 Gisangcheong-gil Dongjak-gu
Seoul
Republic of KOREA
Tel:
Fax:
APEC Climate Center
12 Centum 7-ro Haeundae-gu Busan
Republic of Korea
Tel:
Fax:
Website :