1. Climate Outlook for Summer 2017
LEE Hyunsoo, PARK Jeongwon, Gong Yeonji,
Kim Dong-Joon, and Lee Gyeongmi
(Korea Meteorological Administration)
FOCRAII, 24~26 April 2017

2. ENSO condition and prediction (GloSea5)
Jun
Jul
Aug
Issued in 13 Mar
Issued in 10 Apr
Nino3.4 SSTA
FCST | INIT
Apr
Mar
Feb
May
0.53
0.80
0.94
Jun
0.58
0.98
Jul
0.81
1.24
1.28
Aug
0.84
1.47
1.40
Sep
1.00
1.56

3. 500hPa GPH (GloSea5)
Jun
Jul
Aug
The WNPSH(Western North Pacific Subtropical High) shows slight expansion toward Korea → onset of Changma that is not later than usual
Active Changma front over the southern part of Korea
→ a little late end of Changma
The overall Changma period is likely to be near or a little longer than normal for mid/late June to late July

4. Behavior of EASM (GloSea5)
Anomalous anticyclone over the east Siberia & Bering Sea and anomalous cyclone over northwestern Pacific is likely to have an impact on below-normal precipitation over Korea

5. Ensemble prediction (GloSea5)
Probability of 1.5m temperature (JJA)
Ensemble mean for 1.5m temperature
Jun
Jul
Aug
Probability of precipitation (JJA)
Ensemble mean for precipitation ratio
Jun
Jul
Aug

6. 500hPa GPH (WMO LC MME)
Jun
Jul
Aug
JJA

7. MME Prediction (WMO LC)
Ensemble mean for 2m temperature
Probability of temperature
Jun
Jul
Aug
Ensemble mean for precipitation ratio
Probability of precipitation
Jun
Jul
Aug

8. Predictors for Changma precipitation

9. Dynamic processes for predictors

10. Diagnosis for 2017 Changma precipitation
Contribution to the above-normal rainfall +
Contribution to the below-normal rainfall
Contribution to the near or below-normal rainfall
Contribution to the below-normal rainfall

11. Summary
▣ ENSO will be neutral condition, and the possibility for the El Niño development is likely to be increasing for the second half of 2017.
▣ For Korea, temperature will be a little higher than normal, and precipitation is likely to be near or below normal in this summer - Changma period : near or a little longer than normal - Rainfall for Changma period : near or below normal - The westward extension of WNPSH will be weaker than normal, but its main extension is likely to be north Pacific
Temperature
Precipitation
Below Normal
Near normal
Above normal
Summer 20 40

12. Thank you !!