TEL-Map http://www.learningfrontiers.eu/ Dynamic Roadmapping for Uncertain Times FP7 Coordination and Support Action Schools & Higher Education Roadmapping integrates “business strategy, product development, technology and R&D activities and actions” (Vatananan & Gerdsri 2011) & usually “advocate” the selection “of particular technical solutions” (Saritas & Aylen 2010). Vana Kamtsiou, Brunel (vana.kamtsiou@brunel.ac.uk) Bill Olivier, Botlon (B.Olivier@bolton.ac.uk)

TEL-Map: Integrates visioning, foresight and roadmapping methodologies paradigm shift: linear to systemic innovation (Peter Drucker) from forecasting to “participatory foresight” approaches From technology push R&D innovations to more systemic innovations related to market opportunities. (Koivisto 2009) Need to: create shared perspectives (visions) Identify and monitor plausible contexts (foresight) link technological innovations to market opportunities and provide detail planning at operational levels (roadmapping) Add market and technology intelligences for constantly monitoring the roadmaps and their contexts (observatory)

Stakeholders roadmaps: Roadmapping general framework Based on: EIRMA and Philips – Adapted from IfM model Real challenge

Dynamic Sector based co- innovation roadmaps: focus on implementation with clear reference models and frameworks to manage innovation at meso levels (multi-organizational eco-system)

YOUR Value Proposition Ecosystem Map / Value Blueprint p.87, Figure 4.1: A generic value blueprint maps the actors and the links that make up the ecosystem Supplier 1 YOUR Value Proposition Intermediary Adopter 1 Intermediary Adopter 2 Supplier 2 END CUSTOMER Supplier 3 Co-innovator 1 Co-innovator 2 Supplier 5 Supplier 4 Based on Ron Adner’s: The wide Lens

Cluster Formation: Stage 1 Determine Focus & Invite Starting Group F2F Meeting - Sketch Draft Documents Work Online - Fill Out Details Roadmapping Documents Shared History Current Trends & Drivers Desired Future(s) Evolving Future Context Scenarios Futures + Context  Roadmaps Agreed Members’ Actions Cluster Agreements To work together (!) Degrees of Openness to: New members Associates Information Principles & Practice Final F2F –Finalise and Agree Roadmapping Documents Shared History Current Trends & Drivers Desired Future(s) Evolving Context Scenarios Futures+ContextRoadmaps Agreed Members’ Actions Cluster Agreements To work together (!) Degrees of Openness to: New members Associates Information Principles & Practice

TEL-Map Roadmapping Stages

Agile Roadmapping: Stage 2 Significant Trends & Drivers Desired Future(s) Future Scenarios for Wider Context Roadmaps + Trends to watch Weak Signals to look out for Possible Wild Cards Cluster Progress Reports Roadmapping Cluster Open TEL Observatory Changes to Trends & Drivers Technology, Learning Economy, Politics, Society Weak Signals found Wild Cards found Analysis for Potential Impact on: Roadmaps Evolving Wider Context Desired Future(s)

Engaging the Wider TEL Community Learning Frontiers Portal News Observatory Clusters Name: Members: Desired Future: Roadmaps: Context Scenarios: Challenges: Cluster Info Cluster Formation Awareness, Info Feedback, Monitoring, Ideas Followers, New Members Wider TEL Community

Everything is Provisional + Adaptive to a Changing Environment SO: initially, Aim is to sketch an outline of: Desired Future Context Scenarios Roadmap … to be elaborated further over time … and remain open to change - Hence (relatively) LIGHTWEIGHT & AGILE

Key Uncertain Driving Forces Schools Co-Innovation Group: Creative Learning Environments Funding Generous Funding Restricted Funding Locus of Control Central Local Curriculum / Governance Normally used to place strategy in each possible and plausible future, and check whether changes are needed - and if so what. We found that this particular set ALSO provides a way to map the variety of present educational systems. (Doing this tomorrow) It presents a model for rolling out and adapting innovations to a variety of different regional cultures. These different perspectives should be engaged early on in a Funded Programme

Ecosystem Map / Value Blueprint p. 87, Figure 4 Ecosystem Map / Value Blueprint p.87, Figure 4.1: A generic value blueprint maps the actors and the links that make up the ecosystem Supplier 1 Co-Innovator 1 Intermediary 2 Intermediary 3 Supplier 2 END CUSTOMER Supplier 3 To succeed must identify all key players and Turn all their Traffic Lights GREEN. Need a separate Ecosystem Map for each identifiably different school system or set of schools systems The Roadmap needs to be – and can be – adapted to each context. Co-Innovator 2 Co-Innovator 3 Supplier 4 Supplier 5 After Ron Adner: The Wide Lens

co-innovation cluster formation Co-innovators value blueprints Scoping & co-innovation cluster formation Co-innovators value blueprints Mapping Cartography of domain and related actors/stakeholders Developing of desired scenarios Planning (roadmaps) Developing context scenarios Deriving visions, common themes Finalizing co-innovators value blueprints Starting roadmap implementation (short term) Stress-testing: Revising visions & plans In our approach, first we develop a set of normative – desired scenarios in the beginning of the roadmap with a multi-stakeholders group in order to capture the different visions of the key stakeholders, understand common themes, surface their assumptions and negotiate common perspectives, via structured dialogue and conceptual modeling. The reason we start with desired scenarios is because we don’t want to limit the creativity and imagination of the group by limitations present in the trends of current realities. These scenarios inform the design of the roadmap.   Second, we develop context scenarios using both interaction with the group and external experts to create plausible scenarios of different futures based on projections of trends and other factors which may potentially influence the domain. Third, during the design of the alternative roots a first reality check is performed by revisiting both the future and normative scenarios and plot the different (for example national or regional) specificities into the context scenario matrix. Stress-test the normative scenarios against a matrix of plausible futures (context sceanarios). Both initial and context and desired scenarios maybe revised or added after this exercise. Both types of scenarios are helping as to make explicit the various assumptions of the stakeholders made in terms of desired futures, impact of selected technologies, and influence of other PESTLE factors. These makes explicit the assumption of each stakeholder about the believes and assumptions of other stakeholders, “a situation that often breeds misunderstanding” (Porter et. all, Technology futures analysis) and provides means for disagreement management. In the long term, this analysis and assumptions made can be also used as input to a historical analysis of how things have been “arrived” in the future (Porter et. all, Technology futures analysis). Fourth, during the roadmap implementation, the drivers in the context scenarios are continuously monitored. Although normative scenarios can have a long time span, context scenarios are usually shorter term especially in complex environments (Porter et. all, Technology futures analysis) as the TEL domain. This process continuously updates the context scenarios providing indications of which scenario is most likely to manifest and consequently the visions and the roadmaps are updated. The roadmap is changing from the bottom-up, is agile, and responsive to changes in the environment and updated in order to promptly adjust to these changes. In this way, we keep the Roadmapping process alive, something that had been identified as a major challenge in Roadmapping practice. (An Analytical Approach to Assess the Current State of a Roadmap, Ronald S. Vatananan, Nathasit Gerdsri , ---- R. Phaal, et al., "Characterisation of technology roadmaps: purpose and format," in Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), Portland, OR, 2001, pp. 367- 374., -----R. S. Vatananan and N. Gerdsri, "The Current State of Technology Roadmapping Updating Shared scenarios Contexts Adjusted Roadmaps monitoring contexts

TEL-Map/Visir/ODS TEL-Map: bringing together the necessary innovation ecosystem to cross the chasms between a) innovations and early adopters, & b) between early adopters and early majority. VISIR: identifies Grass roots innovation and Scaling-up to mainstream use. ODS: large-scale pilots, mainstreaming sharing OERs in European schools Research Possible innovations Early adopters Scale