The Maltusian Moment? And if there is one…  Should we eat our parents?  Or our children?  Or our pets?

The conventional wisdom  We decided was oppressive in the time of Galileo. Was also opposed to the heliocentric model and to evolution  It now tells us that we are running out of resources. It is intuitively obvious! And a scientific fact!  Can we trust conventional wisdom? Can we make unbiased observations? And behave rationally?

All the evidence suggests that when we consume…  the world is a better place to live,  we are more humane, philanthropic, altrusic  we are more environmentally conscious, and  we are still capable of irrational behavior, alas

Gross Domestic Product

High-income countries have the highest energy use per capita. Energy use per capita, in thousands of kilograms of oil equivalent, 2002 Source: World Bank, 2005 World Development Indicators: table 3.7.

Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1,000 population Natural Increase Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide

Birth rates and death rates are declining around the world. Overall economic development, public health programs, and improvements in food production and distribution, water, and sanitation have led to dramatic declines in death rates. And women now have fewer children than they did in the 1950s. What happens when the lines ‘birth rate’ and ‘death rate’ cross? That is, who will pay for retirement (with a pay as you go system]? And this is already happening in many European countries. All the evidence suggests that prosperity brings about a change in fertility. Notes on Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide

Reaching Replacement Fertility Average number of children per woman Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

Diverging Trends in Fertility Reduction Average number of children per woman Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

Billions Less Developed Regions More Developed Regions Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), Growth in More, Less Developed Countries

The lessons…  The more we consume the better off we are,  Those who do not have the wherewithal to consume, want to consume; that is no one wants to go back to the dark ages.

The vehicle for this transformation  Science = sustained self conscious reflection about nature and society, and how they work  Science applied during and since the industrial revolution  great benefits is quality of life and political order, but also produced great liabilities [e.g., pharmaceuticals, sanitation; pollution, Nazi and Leninist ideologies, etc.]

Liabilities tempered by:  Judaeo-Christian ethics (humans “made in the image of God”)  Enlightenment values (“all men are created equal…”)  end of slavery in the 19 th Cent, dramatic rise in standards of living, constitutional / consensual government.

Solutions?  Authoritarian government to distribute resources as best benefits the collective  Democratic government with a system of rationing of resources, equal amounts to each.  Application of Science (reflection on the problem; education and persuasion to generate consensus)