Socio-Economic and Demographic Change in Pennsylvania: Implications for Extension Stephan J. Goetz 1, Yicheol Han 2 1.Professor of Agricultural and Regional Economics and Director, The Northeast Regional Center for Rural Development and NARDeP, Penn State University 2.Post Doctoral Fellow, NERCRD and NARDeP With special appreciation to Jonathan Johnson from the Center for Rural Pennsylvania, for providing selected charts. Prepared for the Penn State Extension Conference 2014 Penn Stater Conference Center April 22, 2014

Presentation Outline 1.Population Topics Numbers Diversity Education Aging Migration 2.Employment 3.Wealth 4.Health and Substance Abuse 5.Other Trends 6.Conclusion Presentation is available at aese.psu.edu/nercrd/presentations

1. Population Topics: Numbers

Metro areas are gaining, rural areas continue to lose population…. Population Change,

Population density, Data: US Census, American Community Survey, , population per km 2

Change in Population, 1980 to 2010 and 2010 to 2040 (projected) Population Change, 1980 to 2010 Population Change, 2010 to 2040 Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center

Data Sources Projections were developed by Pennsylvania State Data Center in 2013 Projections are based on the demographic cohort component model – Base population, Census 2010 – Group quarters populations are held constant – Applied national fertility and survival rates to Pennsylvania Projections are just that– projections – Useful window to understanding and preparing for change

1. Population Topics: Diversity

Northeast is Part of Rapid Minority Population Gains,

Minority population (%) Data: US Census, American Community Survey, Minority refers to people who reported their ethnicity and race as something other than non-Hispanic White alone

Foreign-Born (%), Data: US Census, American Community Survey,

Data: US Census 2000 and 2010 Northeast’s ethnic population

Data: US Census 2010 PA’s Ethnic Population

Market opportunity (Korean) Data: US Census, American Community Survey,

Market opportunity (Chinese) Data: US Census, American Community Survey,

Market opportunity (Arab) Data: US Census, American Community Survey,

Market opportunity (Russian) Data: US Census, American Community Survey,

1. Population Topics: Education

High school or college

High school or more Percent of population 25 years and over who have completed high school or more education Data: US Census, American Community Survey,

Bachelor’s degree or more Percent of population 25 years and over who have completed bachelor’s degree or more education Data: US Census, American Community Survey,

Data: US Census 2000 and American Community Survey College or more, absolute change in percentage points since 2000

1. Population Topics: Aging

Rural Pennsylvania Age Cohorts Blue = % Pop. Males Yellow = % Pop. Females Red = Baby Boomers, Born (proj) Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center

Number of Youth and Senior Citizens in Rural and Urban Pennsylvania, 1950 to 2040 (projected) Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center

Age Dependency Ratio, (proj.) (# Persons Age <20 + Persons Age 65+)/(Persons Age 20 to 64)

Percent of population under age 18 Data: US Census, American Community Survey, Youth Population

Youth Population Change Population under age18, percent of total Data: US Census, American Community Survey, and

Elderly population Population 65 year or older, percent of total Data: US Census, American Community Survey,

Age Dependency Ratios, 2010 and 2040 (projected) (projected) *Age Dependency Ratio (# Persons <20 + # Persons 65+) (# Persons 20 to 64) Data source: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center

1. Population Topics: Migration

Mover rate by age

Net migration trend

In-Migration by County, 2010 to 2040 (projected) Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center

2. Employment

Per Capita Employment (Parallels the Age-Dependency Ratio from above) Data: US Census, American Community Survey,

Employment Change Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Employment Change See also: oads/DataBrief1_Jobs.pdf Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

3. Income and Wealth

Poverty Rates, Data: US Census, American Community Survey, USDA’s 2020 Initiative: (20% of funds to regions with >20% poverty rate)

Per capita dividends, interest, and rent payments, change Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Climbing the Income Ladder (Chetty et al. 2013) What helped mobility: 1.Mixed income neighborhoods 2.Two-Parent Households 3.**Smaller African- American Population 4.Social Capital The chance that a child born in the bottom fifth rose to the top fifth **but not necessarily linked to race; Whites equally affected (e.g., Atlanta)

Chances of Ending Up in the Top Fifth, For a Child Raised in the Bottom Fifth (parents’ income less than $25k)... Raised in the Top Fifth (parents’ income more than $107k)

4. Health and Substance Abuse

Health Data (county-level)

Substance Abuse, Mental Health

Excessive Drinking change Data: County Health Rankings & Roadmaps and

Poor mental health days Data: County Health Rankings & Roadmaps,

Poor mental health days change Data: County Health Rankings & Roadmaps and

For more information about the Regional Rural Development Centers’ SAMHSA/DHHS- funded CAPE Project, please visit CAPE - Community Assessment and Education to Promote Behavioral Health Planning and Evaluation

5. Other Trends

Same-Sex Couple HHs

Multigenerational HHs

Percent Change in Wage-and-Salary Jobs vs. Self- Employment, The Northeast US, Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Percent Change in Wage-and-Salary Jobs vs. Self- Employment, The Northeast US, Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

6. Implications

Families/Households Selected Types of Households in Rural Pennsylvania, 1980 to 2010 Smaller households Fewer households with children Potential increase in the number of multi-generational households Likely increase in single person households Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Economic Development # Working Age Adults (20-64) in Rural Pennsylvania (proj.) Potential labor shortages for some businesses More older persons in the workforce Stagnant or lower income tax revenues Increased demand for businesses to serve an older population Data Sources: U.S. Census Bureau & Pennsylvania State Data Center

Education No initial reduction in school taxes Potential school building closings in some districts– new buildings in other districts Data Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education Enrollment Changes 2010 to 2020 (proj.)

Number of Rural and Urban Persons 85 Years Old & Older, 1960, 2040 (projected) Health Care / Human Services Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau and PA Dept. Health Likely increased demand for: –Home health care services –Transportation services –Assisted living quarters –Medical specialists focusing on geriatric needs Are communities ready for this sea change?

Final Words Powerful Forces are in Play in Pennsylvania: 1.Demographic… and 2.Social and Economic Change … and they play out unevenly across the State, creating problems AND opportunities for Extension This presentation included only a relatively(!) small set of data. Please contact us for additional data, maps, tables, etc. or Presentation will be available at

1.Mixed income Neighborhood 2.Two parent HHs 3.African-American population 4.Social Capital Chetty et al. (2013): Mobility This map shows the average percentile rank of children who grow up in below-median income families across areas of the U.S. (absolute upward mobility). Lighter colors represent areas where children from low-income families are more likely to move up in the income distribution.