1. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 1 North Dakota Statewide Housing Needs Assessment Dr. Richard Rathge Professor and Director North Dakota State Data Center Review of Findings and Data Products 2005 Statewide Housing Conference Bismarck, North Dakota February 23, 2005

2. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 2 Presentation Objectives: 2. Review of main findings 3. Preview data products produced by the needs assessment project 1. Provide an overview of the 2005 Statewide Housing Needs Assessment

3. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 3 Purpose of the Housing Assessment: 1. Provide an overview of current housing trends 2. Show population dynamics and corresponding shifts in housing 3. Provide objective assessment of future housing needs

4. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 4 Key Components of the needs assessment Detailed Data Regarding: Demographic/economic trends Housing stock Affordable housing Housing conditions Special populations Housing supply Housing demand Land use issue

5. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 5 Key Components of the needs assessment Survey of key leaders Represent all levels of geography Represent major stakeholders in housing Key themes Housing supply/demand issues Housing quality and affordability Barriers to development Special needs populations Concerns regarding housing policy/programs

6. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 6 Products 1.Final report Printed document serves as summary Contains 12 tables profiling housing needs Includes key leaders survey results 2.Detailed tables Series of nearly 100 tables expanding detail of report Each table includes all geography 3.Website -- ( SHARP ) statewide housing assessment resource project User select geography and tables Links to all products

7. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 7 Overview of Key Findings 1.Review Population Changes 2.Explore Historical Housing Patterns 3.Examine Housing Demand 4.Look at Key Leaders Survey 5.Finish with Recommendations

8. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 8 Population Changes 1. Population consolidation 2. Shifting age distribution 3. Changing household composition

9. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 9 Population Changes 1. Population consolidation

10. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 10 N.D. Rural-Urban Population Distribution, 1900-2000 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Decennial Censuses.

11. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 11 North Dakota Cities by Size, 1960 and 2000 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census urban rural 15 2000 data include 10 Census Designated Places (CDPs).

12. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 12 North Dakota Cass County McIntosh County

13. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 13 Population Density

14. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 14 Population Changes 2. Shifting age distribution

15. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 15 Net Domestic Migration Rates Per 100 Persons in the United States by County: 1990 to 1999

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18. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 18 1980 Census – Rural and Urban Population Distributions by Age and Gender for North Dakota

19. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 19 1990 Census – Rural and Urban Population Distributions by Age and Gender for North Dakota

20. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 20 2000 Census – Rural and Urban Population Distributions by Age and Gender for North Dakota

21. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 21 2005 Projections – Rural and Urban Population Distributions by Age and Gender for North Dakota

22. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 22 2010 Projections – Rural and Urban Population Distributions by Age and Gender for North Dakota

23. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 23 2015 Projections – Rural and Urban Population Distributions by Age and Gender for North Dakota

24. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 24 Population of Persons Ages 0 to 9 and Ages 65 and Older North Dakota: 1890 to 2002

25. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 25 Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the Total Population in North Dakota by County: 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000

26. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 26 Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the Total Population in North Dakota by County: 2020 Source: North Dakota State Data Center, North Dakota Population Projections: 2005 to 2020, Sept. 2002

27. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 27 The Elderly – 65 plus Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Persons Age 65 and Older as a Percentage of Total Persons by State: 2000

28. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 28 The Elderly – 85 plus Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Persons Age 85 and Older as a Percentage of Total Persons by State: 2000

29. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 29 PERCENT CHANGE IN PERSONS, NORTH DAKOTA: 2000 to 2010 & 2000 to 2020 (Source: U.S. Census Bureau)

30. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 30 Population Changes 3. Changing household composition

31. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 31 Household Composition – North Dakota 19802000% Change All Households227,664257,15213.0 Family Households166,702166,150-0.3 Without Children Under 1876,81585,69711.6 Married67,62175,43111.5 Not Married9,19410,26611.7 With Children Under 1891,60380,453-12.2 Married81,93962,002-24.3 Not Married9,66418,45190.9 Non-family Households60,14791,00251.3 Single52,02875,42045.0 With Non-Relatives8,93415,58274.4

32. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 32 Households by Type

33. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 33 Household Types

34. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 34 PERSONS LIVING ALONE: 1-Person Households: 1940 to 2000 (Source: U.S. Census Bureau)

35. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 35 Percentage Change in the Number of Elderly Householders Living Alone (65 Years and Older) North Dakota by County: 1990 to 2000

36. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 36 Housing Trends 1. Shifts in housing stock 2. Growing need for affordable housing 3. Housing conditions good 4. Growing demand for special population

37. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 37 Housing Trends 1. Shifts in housing stock

38. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 38 NORTH DAKOTA HOME OWNERSHIP RATES : Annual Homeownership Rates: 1984 to 2003 (Source: U.S. Census Bureau)

39. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 39 Owner-Occupied Housing Units Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Percent Change in Owner-Occupied Housing Units by County: 1990 to 2000

40. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 40 Renter-Occupied Housing Units Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Percent Change in Renter-Occupied Housing Units by County: 1990 to 2000

41. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 41 Age of Housing

42. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 42 Housing Units by Structure

43. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 43 Housing Trends 2. Growing need for affordable housing

44. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 44 Affordable Housing Benchmark: housing should be within 30% of household income (statewide MFI=$52,500) - 57% of current owner- or renter-occupied homes are not affordable to those below 30% MFI - 21% of current owner-occupied and 17% of renter-occupied homes are not affordable to those between 31-50% MFI

45. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 45 LOCAL EFFECTS OF PROPOSED CUTS IN FEDERAL HOUSING ASSISTANCE, BY STATE IN 2005 (SOURCE: CENTER ON BUDGET AND POLICY PRIORITIES: MARCH 17, 2004) STATE NUMBER OF AUTHORIZED VOUCHERS AS OF JULY 2003 IMPACT OF ADMINISTRATION PROPOSAL IN 2005 REDUCTION IN VOUCHER SUBSIDY FUNDING REDUCTION IN NUMBER OF FAMILIES ASSISTED IF CUTS WERE CARRIED OUT BY ELIMINATING VOUCHERS INCREASE IN ANNUAL RENT IF CUTS WERE CARRIED OUT BY RAISING RENT BURDENS North Dakota 7,225$3,212,266876$435

46. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 46 LOCAL EFFECTS OF PROPOSED CUTS IN FEDERAL HOUSING ASSISTANCE, BY STATE IN 2009 (SOURCE: CENTER ON BUDGET AND POLICY PRIORITIES: MARCH 17, 2004) STATE IMPACT OF ADMINISTRATION PROPOSAL IN 2009 REDUCTION IN VOUCHER SUBSIDY FUNDING REDUCTION IN NUMBER OF FAMILIES ASSISTED IF CUTS WERE CARRIED OUT BY ELIMINATING VOUCHERS INCREASE IN ANNUAL RENT IF CUTS WERE CARRIED OUT BY RAISING RENT BURDENS North Dakota $8,560,1702,102$1,132

47. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 47 Housing Trends 3. Housing conditions good

48. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 48 Housing Conditions General housing conditions in North Dakota are very good - Less than ½ percent of owner-occupied units lack complete plumbing or kitchen facilities - About 1% of owner-occupied units and 4% of renter-occupied units are overcrowded (more than 1 person per room) - ½ percent of renter-occupied lack plumbing and 1% lack kitchen facilities

49. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 49 Housing Trends 4. Growing demand for special populations

50. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 50 Special Populations Survey of homeless indicate unmet need for 2,136 persons --- 40% are families with children -Need for low and moderate-income elderly -- cost burden exceed 30% of household income for 15% of elderly (55 years and over) owner-occupied units and 35% in renter- occupied units

51. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 51 Projected Housing Demand Findings: Between 2000-2015 Age of householder 15-34 will decline 8% (nearly 5,000) 35-54 decline 15% (over 15,000) 55-74 will increase 50% (over 29,800) 75 and over will increase 38% (over 12,500)

52. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 52 Projected Housing Demand Findings: Between 2000-2015 Income of householder Below 30% MFI will increase 15% (7,426) 31-50% MFI will increase 12% (4,789) 51-60% MFI will increase 9% (3,490) Above 115% will increase 8% (2,555)

53. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 53 Projected Housing Demand Findings: Between 2000-2015 Type of householder First-time homebuyer will decline 9% Upscale homebuyer will increase 8% Low-income homebuyer will increase 6% Moderate homebuyer will increase 8% Elderly homebuyer will increase 42%

54. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 54 Projected Supply Findings Statewide, current trends indicate 1% growth between 2000-2015 (additional 30,562 units Demand driven forecast more robust (additional increase of 32,157) Regions I, III, VII demand forecast greater than current housing growth pattern (due to elderly) Grand Forks unique

55. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 55 Key Leaders Survey Method Telephone survey of 183 key leaders County, major city, reservation, realtors, apartment association, builders, etc. Topics included: Housing supply/demand Housing quality & affordability Barriers to development Special needs population Policy/program concerns

56. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 56 Key Leaders Survey Findings Economic health of communities is good Visionary leadership Important local issues Economic development Retention of young adults Aging population Infrastructure Social issues/special populations

57. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 57 Key Leaders Survey Findings Sufficient public housing Housing stock in good repair (except reservations) Affordable housing has changed little (exceptions larger cities and Region V) ¼ concerned about barriers to development Zoning, cost, available infrastructure, multi- family unit restrictions, lot size, agricultural land

58. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 58 Recommendations Top priority--- elderly housing issues Older homes and need for rehabilitation Increase demand for extremely low-, low-, moderate- income homes Special population needs Homeless Low-income elderly Task force to explore innovative programs Cuts in Federal Programs

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78. Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center February 2005 78 Statewide Housing Needs Assessment Presentation 2004 Dr. Richard Rathge, Director North Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND NDSU, IACC 424, Fargo, ND 58105 Richard.Rathge@ndsu.edu Phone: (701) 231-8621 Fax: (701) 231-9730 URL: www.ndsu.edu/sdc