1. 625 Forster Street, Room 902 Harrisburg, PA 17120 (717) 787-9555
Jonathan Johnson
Senior Policy Analyst

2. Center for Rural Pennsylvania
Legislative research agency of the Pennsylvania General Assembly (Act 16, 1987 & Act 12, 2009)
Mandates
Administer grants to conduct research on rural conditions.
Maintain a database on rural conditions and needs.

3. Today’s Discussion: 7 Demographic and Economic Trends Affecting the Future of Pennsylvania
Uneven population change
Aging population
Slow natural growth
Low in-migration
More diverse population
Slow economic recovery
Change in postsecondary enrollment

4. Uneven Population Change
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau.

5. Population in Pennsylvania and United States to 2040 (projected) Graph in million and not to scale
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center.

6. Bifurcation of Pennsylvania’s Population
% Change in County Population,
Bifurcation of Pennsylvania’s Population
Population in South Eastern Pennsylvania and Rest of Pennsylvania to 2017
(In Millions)
Data sources U.S. Census Bureau.

7. Population by Municipal Type, 1960 to 2016
Cities 1980 = 20% of Pop; 2016 = 17% of Pop; decline of -25%
Boroughs = 24% of Pop; 2016 = 23% of Pop; Decline of -13%
Twp 1st Class = 15% of Pop; 2016 = 17% of Pop; Decline of 4%
Twp 2nd Class 1980 = 40% of Pop; 2016 = 42% of Pop; Decline of 9%
Borough population includes town. Township population includes townships of the 1st and 2nd classes . Data source: U.S. Census Bureau.

8. Population Change, to 2017
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau.

9. Aging Population
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau.

10. Pennsylvania Age Cohorts Blue = % Pop. Males Yellow = % Pop
Pennsylvania Age Cohorts Blue = % Pop. Males Yellow = % Pop. Females Red = Baby Boomers, Born
1970
2040 (proj)
2010
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center.

11. Percent of Youth and Older Residents in Pennsylvania, 1950 to 2040 (projected)
2016
2020(p)
2030(p)
2040(p)
Shaded counties have more residents 65+ than residents <20 years old.
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center.

12. Enrollment in Pennsylvania Public School Districts, 1980-81 to 2015-16
Enrollment is measured by Average Daily Membership. Data source: Pennsylvania Department of Education.

13. Percent Change in Public School Enrollment, 2015-16 to 2025-26
-3.1% Projected enrollment decline among districts that financially support adult education programs and community college education.
-4.1% Projected enrollment decline among districts that do not financially support adult education programs and community college education.
Data source: Pennsylvania Department of Education.

14. Slow Natural Growth

15. Births and Deaths in Pennsylvania, 1970 to 2016 (preliminary)
Shaded Counties with more deaths
than births, 2016
Data source: Pennsylvania Department of Health.

16. Projected Births and Deaths in Pennsylvania, 2015-20 to 2035-40
Data source: Pennsylvania State Data Center.

17. Total Fertility Rates in Pennsylvania and United States
Total Fertility Rates for United States, 2014
Total Fertility Rates for Pennsylvania,
According to the CDC, the total fertility rate (TFR) estimates the number of births that a hypothetical group of women would have over their lifetimes, based on age-specific birth rates in a given year. Replacement level for the TFR is the level at which a given generation can exactly replace itself (generally considered to be 2.1 births per woman). Data sources: Pennsylvania Department of Health and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

18. Low In-Migration
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau.

19. In- and Out-Migration from Pennsylvania, 2011-2015
In-Migration into Pennsylvania,
n=226,553
In- and Out-Migration from Pennsylvania,
51% of people who moved out of Pennsylvania went to a county <250 miles away
Out-Migration from
Pennsylvania,
n=241,974
63% of people who moved into Pennsylvania came from a county <250 miles away
Data source: 2015, 5-year Average,
American Community Survey. U.S. Census Bureau.

20. Net International and Domestic Migration in Pennsylvania, 1990-91 to 2016-17
Net Domestic Migration, 2010 to 2017
Net International Migration, 2010 to 2017
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau.

21. Projected International and Domestic Net Migration in Pennsylvania, 2015-20 to 2035-40
Data source: Pennsylvania State Data Center.

22. Adult (18+) Migration Into and Out of Pennsylvania, 2016
Adults Who Moved Into Pennsylvania
Adults who Moved Out of Pennsylvania
Avg. Age
40.9
40.2
% 18 to 34 Years Old
47%
51%
% 65+ Years Old
12%
11%
% Non-White
33%
24%
% Bachelors Degree+
43%
50%
% Not Married
53%
60%
% Employed Full-time/Year round
66%
67%
% Self-Employed 4% 7%
Poverty Rate
17%
14%
Median Personal Income
$30,228
$32,948
Interstate Migration
(net = 11,741)
Out-Migration from Pennsylvania to Another State 181,982
In-Migration from Another State to Pennsylvania 193,723
*Data exclude persons enrolled in college and those in an institution (prisons, nursing home, hospital, etc).
Data source: 2016, Public Use Microdata Sample American Community Survey. U.S. Census Bureau.

23. More Diverse Population
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau.

24. Number of White and Non-Whites in Pennsylvania, 1960 to 2016 (in Millions/Graph Not to Scale)
Number of Non-Whites, 1990
Number of Non-Whites, 2016
1 Dot = 10 Persons
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau.

25. Pennsylvania Population by Race & Ethnicity, 2000
Census Bureau projections, show that in 2045, in the United States, white alone, non-Hispanics will no longer be the nation’s largest racial/ethnic group.
Pennsylvania Population by Race & Ethnicity, 2000
Pennsylvania Population by Race & Ethnicity, 2016
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau.

26. Slow Economic Recovery
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau.

27. Annual Unemployment Rates, 1970 to 2016
Average Unemployment Rates, January to December 2017, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Data source: Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry.

28. Employment by Industry in Pennsylvania,
2017
2nd Quarter
(n=5.824 million)
Employment by Industry in Pennsylvania,
2001 and 2017
2001
2nd Quarter
(n=5.599 million)
Data source: PA Dept. Labor and Industry.

29. Median Age of Employed Persons, 2016
Age of Workforce
Median Age of Employed Persons, 2016
Percent Change in Age of Employed Persons, 2006 to 2016
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau.

30. Growth in Pennsylvania’s Mailbox Economy: Unearned Income
Sources of Income in Pennsylvania, 2017
Unearned Income by County, 2016
Data adjusted for inflation using the CPI-U with 2016=100.
Data source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

31. Changes in Postsecondary Enrollment
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau.

32. Pennsylvania Community College Fall Enrollment, 1990 to 2016
(In Thousands)
United States Community College Fall Enrollment, to 2016
(In Millions)
Community colleges were defined as any two-year institutions provide associate degrees or postsecondary certificate in less than 4-years. Data source: IPEDS, National Center for Education Statistics.

33. Change in Fall Enrollment In Higher Education Institutions in Pennsylvania, 2010 to 2016*
Montgomery Community College and Highland Community College
Fall Enrollment, 2016
% Change,
# Institutions with Enrollment Decrease
# Institutions with Enrollment Increase
Community Colleges
124,775
-14.8%
12 (86%)
2 (14%)
State Owned Universities (PASSHE)
104,792
-12.3%
State Related Universities
163,367
-0.4%
24 (73%)
9 (27%)
Non-Profit 4-Year Degree Colleges/Universities
303,802
0.1%
73 (61%)
47 (39%)
For-Profit 4-Years Degree Colleges/Universities
24,519
-58.1%
50 (93%)
4 (7%)
Non-Degree Granting Institutions
12,469
-21.6%
73 (71%)
30 (29%)
Total
733,724
-9.2%
224 (72%)
94 (28%)
*Includes all institutions that reported enrollment data in both 2010 and Data exclude branch campuses Data sources: IPEDS National Center for Educational Statistics.

34. Pennsylvania Community College Fall Enrollment, Number of Unemployed, and 12th Grade Students, 2000 to 2016
Data sources: IPEDS, Common Core Data NCES, and Pennsylvania Dept. Labor and Industry.

35. Implications for Community Colleges

36. Implication #1: Shrinking Pool of Traditional Age Students
Number of 12th Grade Students in Pennsylvania Public School Districts, to (projected)
Over the next 10 years, the number of high school seniors will continue to decline, but the decline will not be as steep as it was for the preceding 10 years.
Competition among other postsecondary institutions for these students will likely increase.
Data Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education

37. Percent Change in Population, 2010 to 2040 (proj.)
Implication #2: Location, Location, Location
Percent Change in Population, to 2040 (proj.)
Pennsylvania will grow-- But
Growth will not be even
Will not be as fast as the United States
Demand for postsecondary education/ continuing education will vary by region
Data Sources: Pennsylvania State Data Center and U.S. Census Bureau.

38. Number of Pennsylvanians 65+ Years Old and Minorities, 2000 to 2016
Implication #3: Pennsylvanians Are Becoming Older and More Diverse
Number of Pennsylvanians 65+ Years Old and Minorities, 2000 to 2016
From 2010 to 2016 the number of:
Persons 65+ increased 13%
Minorities increase 13%
This trend will unlikely change in the near future.
Outreach to these groups may require different and fresh approaches.
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau.

39. Percent Change in Community College Enrollment, 2010 to 2016
Implication #4: You’re Not Alone
Percent Change in Community College Enrollment, 2010 to 2016
Declining community college enrollment in not unique to Pennsylvania:
Community college enrollment across the United States decreased 10% from 2010 to 2016.
Even fast growing states (>5%) had enrollment decline of 8%.
Among states with enrollment decline, Pennsylvania had the 18th biggest decline
Community colleges were defined as any 2-year institution providing associate degree’s or postsecondary certificates in fewer than 4-years. Data source: IPEDS, National Center for Education Statistics.

40. Implication #5: Changes in Revenues
Sources of Pennsylvania Community College Revenues per Student, 2000 to 2016
With declining enrollment, school districts may reduce or eliminate their contribution to community colleges.
With an aging and declining workforce, state revenues to community colleges may stagnate or decline.
Data adjusted for inflation using the CPI-U with 2016=100.
Data source: IPEDS, National Center for Education Statistics.

41. What Does It All Mean….? Conclusions
If current trends continue, Pennsylvania will have:
Stagnant population change caused by low birth rates and low in-migration
An aging population, especially those 65 years old and older. This will impact labor force
Increase in the number of racially/ethnically diverse residents
Slow economic growth
Similar growth patterns to other mid-Atlantic and mid-west states.

42. What Does It All Mean….? Some Observations
Don’t panic, these are not new issues.
Changes will be slow and gradual.
You’re not alone. Entire mid-Atlantic is in the same boat.
Recognize that there are no silver bullets – you’ll need to try many different policies and programs.
Pennsylvania is a big state with many of assets and opportunities.
Some Observations

44. Today, How Many Minutes did it take the Sun to get from Philadelphia to Erie?
April 9, 2018
Sunrise: ???
Philadelphia
April 9, 2018
Sunrise: 6:32 AM
Data source: U.S. Naval Observatory.

45. Answer: 18 Minutes Erie April 9, 2018 Sunrise: 6:50 AM Philadelphia
Data source: U.S. Naval Observatory.

46. In Pennsylvania are there more: (A) Physicians Offices or (B)Law Offices?

47. Answer: Physicians Physicians Offices = 7,908 Law Offices = 5,777
Data source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2016 Annual Average. Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry

48. Among Pennsylvania’s 67 counties, how many have more licensed retail liquor establishments (bars) than religious congregations (churches)?

49. Answer: 29 Counties
Licensed Retail Liquor Establishments = 18,414 Religious Congregations = 15,359
Data source: 2010 U.S. Religion Census: Religious Congregations and Membership Study. and 2012 Pennsylvania Liquor Control Board.

51. Number of Pennsylvania Women in Prime Child Producing Years, (15 to 44), 1970 to 2040 (projected)
In Pennsylvania
In 1990, 33% of births were to mothers 30+ years old. In 2015, 47% of births were to mothers 30+ years old.
In 2016, the birth rate for white mothers was 52.1 per 1,000; for black mothers it was 58.1 and for Hispanic mothers it was 73.6 per 1,000.
In 1991, 77% of all reported pregnancies resulted in live births. In 2016, 82% of all reported pregnancies resulted in live births.
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Pennsylvania State Data Center, and Pennsylvania Department of Health