The Economy & Housing: How Does One Affect the Other Andrew Mazak Vogt Strategic Insights May 2016

Demographic Changes Impacting Housing (Ohio, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Kentucky & West Virginia) Change in Median Home Value (2015 – 2020) Rural Counties +11.9% Non-Rural Counties +22.4% Source: 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; VSI Change in Median Renter HH Income (2015 – 2020) Rural Counties +6.3% Non-Rural Counties +11.5% Source: 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; VSI

Demographic Changes Impacting Housing (Ohio, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Kentucky & West Virginia) Change in Renter Households (2015 – 2020) Under 55Age 55+ Rural Counties -5.1%+10.1% Non-Rural Counties -0.3%+10.3% Source: 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; VSI Non-rural counties renter households years of age = +2.9% increase projected

Demographic Changes Impacting Housing Seniors: Aging In-Place Young Households: Moving to Big City

Demographic Changes Impacting Housing (Ohio, Indian, Pennsylvania, Kentucky & West Virginia) % of Rental Units By Year Built Rental Units Built Prior to 1960 Rental Units Built Since 1990 Rural Counties 21.2%39.2% Non-Rural Counties 18.8%50.7% Source: 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; VSI

Demographic Changes Impacting Housing Rural Rental Housing Non-Rural Rental Housing

Source: Fusion360

Gen Y (Millennials) Is Now The Largest Generation Exposed to the economic reality of the recession Declining property values, poor job prospects Moved into basements, lived with parents and ‘hung out’ on social media

What is it about Millennials? It’s numbers They’re staying single longer They’re not buying homes They’re focused on experiences They want to be in the middle of activity

Baby Boomers is #2 Now the second largest generation Rapidly becoming empty- nesters In search of experiences (sound familiar?) Worn out from the big house Connected like their kids (with access to information) Love the idea of being flexible

Can Similar Housing Appeal to Millenials and Baby Boomers?

How Do Changing Demographic Trends Translate to Housing Demand? Millennials and Baby Boomers are seeking similar amenities/features/characteristic s Increasing demand for 1- bedroom units Locations close to entertainment, dining, sports and the arts. Want walkable. Want to ditch the car. And maybe close to where they work. Will reignite the demand for condominiums.

Rural Area Rental Housing Conceptual Challenges: Appeal to Millennials and Baby Boomers Accessible design (single-story or elevator- served) Want walkable community – dog/pet friendly Have community amenities to promote interaction with neighbors, such as: clubhouse, fitness center, business/computer center, scheduled activities/ outings, community gardens and/or rooftop patio

Demographic Changes Impacting Housing (Ohio, Indian, Pennsylvania, Kentucky & West Virginia) Estimated Monthly Cost by Tenure Owner Cost Renter Cost Rental Cost % of Owner Cost Rural Counties $685$ % Non-Rural Counties $977$ % Rural Cost % of Non-Rural Cost 70.1%80.6%- Source: 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; VSI

Ohio Overall Rental Market Conditions Rental Assistance units are nearly 100% occupied, while non-RA units in RD-515 projects in rural areas typically experience lower occupancy levels.

Affordable Housing Becomes More Critical Economy is changing and so is the demand for housing. Higher paying jobs are being replaced by lower paying ones. Product built in the ’60s and ’70s to house the baby boomers is obsolete in today’s market. Not terribly energy efficient Poor, chopped-up design Marginal locations

Affordable Housing Becomes More Critical Economy is changing and so is the demand for housing. Higher paying jobs are being replaced by lower paying ones. Product built in the 60s and 70s to house the baby boomers is obsolete in today’s market. Not terribly energy efficient Poor, chopped-up design Marginal locations

Fracking Compensation Compared to Local Pay In 2013, fracking-related employees earned an average of nearly $75,000 per year At the same time, local Ohio workers earned approximately $45,000 per year Sources: Ohio Department of Job and Family Services & Quarterly Economic Trends for Oil and Gas Industries

Horror Stories of Housing Costs Skyrocketing 2-Bedroom/1.0-Bath apartment 2011 asking rent = $425/month 2013 asking rent = $1,800/month (furnished)

Fracking Impact on Housing Source: 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; VSI Fracking Employment Impact on Temporary Housing (Lodging/Hotels) Typical Occupancy 58%68%88%62% Average Daily Room Rates $89$98$125$112$105

Fracking Impact on Housing Source: 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; VSI Fracking Employment Impact on Apartments Typical Occupancy 98%99%98%96% Median Gross Rents -+13%+8%+2% Affordable projects experienced less fluctuations in occupancies and rents

Future Trends Economy and oil/gas exploration is wild-card Senior specific-housing Ex-urban senior housing. In-fill Affordable downtown for working class Suburban ‘mini-downtown’ housing.

Conclusions Changing demographics are having profound effects on housing. Apartment demand should remain high due to demands from the two largest demographic groups. When will Gen Y move to single- family houses? Can we meet the needs of older adults in the coming decades? Is it economically feasible for developers to build more senior- tailored affordable housing in rural area?

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