1. STATE OF THE HOUSING: EXISTING CONDITIONS AND OUR ABILITY TO PLAN FUTURE REGIONAL LAND USE FOR CREATING HEALTHY & SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES Jamshid Damooei, PhD Professor and Chair Department of Econ, Finance & Accounting Co-Director of the Center for Leadership and Values School of Management California Lutheran University. 13th Annual Ventura County Housing Conference, September 18 th, 2014

2. CONTENTS  Areas of Urban & Built-Up Land & Housing Start Up  Home Ownership and Prices  Housing Affordability  Economic & Policy Implications for the County, its Economy and Creation of Sustainable Communities

3. AREAS OF URBAN & BUILT-UP LAND & HOUSING START UP Source: The Calif. Dept. of Conservation, Farmland Conversion Reports, http://www.conservation.ca.gov/

4. AREAS OF URBAN & BUILT-UP LAND & HOUSING START UP Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits, http://censtats.census.gov/

5. HOME OWNERSHIP AND PRICES Source: American Community Survey, Selected Housing Characteristics, http://factfinder2.census.gov/

6. HOME OWNERSHIP AND PRICES Source: DataQuick, California Home Sale Activity, http://dqnews.com/

7. HOME OWNERSHIP AND PRICES Source: DataQuick, California Home Sale Activity, http://dqnews.com/

8. HOME OWNERSHIP AND PRICES Source: DataQuick, California Home Sale Activity and California Foreclosures, http://dqnews.com/

9. HOUSING AFFORDABILITY Sources: 1) National Low Income Housing Coalition Out of Reach Reports, http://nlihc.org/oor/; 2) American Community Survey, Total Housing Units and Vacancy Status, http://factfinder2.census.gov/.

10. HOUSING AFFORDABILITY Source: American Community Survey, Median Family Income in Past 12 Months, http://factfinder2.census.gov/

11. HOUSING AFFORDABILITY Source: The California Association of Realtors, Housing Affordability Index, http://www.car.org/

12. HOUSING AFFORDABILITY Top ten metropolitan areas that have highest wages to afford a two bedroom apartment Source: National Low Income Housing Coalition Out of Reach Reports, http://nlihc.org/oor/

13. HOUSING AFFORDABILITY Occupational employment and wages by major occupational group, Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura Metropolitan Statistical Area, May 2013 Major Occupational Group Average hourly wageAnnual wage Approx hours a week to afford a Two-bedroom Home Total Employment in Occupation % of Group Within Total County Employment Farming, fishing, and forestry9.63 20,03012065302% Food preparation and serving related10.52 21,8821102847010% Personal care and service14.16 29,4538189903% Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance14.58 30,3267984103% Healthcare support14.76 30,7017878103% Transportation and material moving15.54 32,32374168706% Production16.46 34,23770191407% Office and administrative support18.23 37,918634782016% Sales and related18.95 39,416613517012% Installation, maintenance, and repair22.65 47,1125195303% Construction and extraction23.95 49,8164897903% Community and social services24.11 50,1494839601% Education, training, and library25.86 53,78945179706% Protective service28.53 59,3424040101% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wages http://www.bls.gov/

14. IMPLICATION FOR THE COUNTY, ITS ECONOMY AND CREATION OF SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES Take Away From What Have Been Discussed:  Urban and Built-up lands has grown in the last three decades. The rate slowed down in the last decade.  The county experienced a much faster rate of building new home (measured by number of permits as a proxy) in the first half of the last decade.  There is a distinct difference in the proportional ratios of home owner and rental occupancies in various citers within the county.  Home prices suffered a sharp decline since 2006 and reached its lowest in 2011 (37% overall decline) and began to rebound as of 2012 and since 2012 the median home prices increased by about 25%.  Various cities have different median home prices and the ratio is about 3.7 times when Westlake village is compared with Piru.  Notices of default reached its peak in 2009 (2648) and declined to 384 in 2014. Median home prices changed little between 2009 to 2011. It went up much sharper since 2012.

15. IMPLICATION FOR THE COUNTY, ITS ECONOMY AND CREATION OF SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES  Home affordability remains a major economic challenge for the county. A sustainable regional economy should consider housing affordability as one of the most important elements of its effort to create a healthy and sustainable community.  Rented vacancy reached its lowest point of 1.0% in 2006. It went up to its highest level of 1.6% in 2011.  Level of rent on average for a 2 bedroom multifamily changed around $100 during the period of 2005 to 2014. It has been consistently high at around $1420 to over $1500.  Based on the latest data (First Quarter of 2014) only 29% of residents of Ventura County residents can afford to buy homes at the prevailing median home prices in the county. This is down from 42% only a year ago (in 2013).  Ventura county is among the top ten metropolitan areas within the nation requiring a high wage level to afford a two bedroom housing unit. To be able to afford a two bed room home, the wage rate had to be $28.83 in Ventura County.  Based on our research 15% (a total of 43,990 people) of workers in the county require two to three full time jobs in order to afford 2-bedroom housing. 46% have to work one and a half to two jobs in order to afford 2-bedroom housing (a total of 135,220 people). Finally, 77% of workers in the county can not afford 2-bedroom housing with ONLY one full time job. (224,470 County residents)

16. IMPLICATION FOR THE COUNTY, ITS ECONOMY AND CREATION OF SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES  The economic consequences of low housing affordability are many. Here are a selected number of them for our county, which explains the economic impacts of the high cost of housing and/or investment to reduce it:  More than 70% of our country residents cannot buy a home or afford a 2-bedroom apartment on one full time job.  High cost of accommodation is one of principal elements of businesses NOT moving into an area.  Investment to increase affordable housing has the following impacts :  Creation of jobs during the construction and after.  Attracting employers and employees  Increase consumer spending  Increase government revenue  Lower the risk of foreclosures.  Lessen the number of mileage to travel from home to working place and back and thus helping to reduce pollution.

17. THE END Thank you.