1. Housing Demand and the California Economy Stephen Levy Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy Senate Housing and Transportation Committee May 16, 2011

2. Topics Housing and the recent recession in California Future demand for housing—A MAJOR CHANGE IN HOUSING DEMAND IS COMING Housing, the economy and foreclosures

3. Housing and the Recession The housing recession is the primary reason that California underperformed the nation through 2009. Construction declines accounted for close to 600,000 of the state’s job losses Construction related jobs in CA declined more than in the nation CA manufacturing job growth is average

4. Construction Explains CA’s Below Average Job Performance

5. Construction Related Job Losses

6. Manufacturing Job Losses March 2000—March 2011

7. When the Construction Slide Ended, CA Started to Increase Share of U.S. Jobs

8. Changing Trends in Housing Demand Slower population growth between 2000 and 2010.The Census reported 135,000 fewer residents (-30%) added each year compared to previous DOF estimates showed. Major changes in the age composition will affect housing demand. Tightened lending standards and SCS/SB 375 planning will affect housing demand.

9. A Major Change in Housing Demand is Coming The largest population growth is in the 25-34 and 55 age groups The prime family forming age groups (35-54) will show little if any population growth over the next decade This will affect the size and location of future housing demand What will older households do as their children become adults?

10. The Age Component of Changing Housing Demand

11. Implications of Age Changes We are moving from two decades where the family age groups surged to a decade of no growth in the 35-54 age groups. Population growth and housing preferences will be determined by young adults and the 55+ age groups Demand will swing to smaller units and more urban locations

12. Implications (cont’d) The housing decisions of the 55+ age groups will be critical --How many will stay put and how many will move --Where will active older workers and families want to live There is likely to be greatly reduced need for new family housing

13. The Role of Policy and Housing in California Housing demand and policies to reduce foreclosures Housing demand and policies in support of regional sustainable communities strategies