1. Houston: The Next Great American Global City Presentation by Joel Kotkin, Chapman University, to Harris County International Trade and Transportation Conference October 23, 2014

2. What Makes a Global City? 1.Efficiency and connectivity is critical factor 2.Rapid Economic Growth 3.Being a “necessary city” 4.Role of Diversity and Migration 5.Houston/Harris County Prospects

3. Why Houston Grows Dominant City on the Third Coast The World Capital of Energy Industry Rapid Economic and Population Growth Expanding Ethnic Diversity --- and better results for minorities A Flexible economic and planning model Challenges Ahead

8. What Makes a Necessary City? 1.An Island of efficiency in a regional economy 2.Domination of a key industry sector 3.Close Human and Transport Links to the rest of the world

9. Examples of Necessary Cities 1.New York and London --- finance and media 2.Los Angeles ---entertainment 3.San Francisco Bay Area --- technology 4.Houston --- energy 5. Singapore and Hong Kong --- Asian finance and business services

11. Shale Oil and Gas- Not Just the Bakken

19. Bureau of Economic Analysis

20. What is a City For? “a city comes into being for the sake of life, but exists for the sake of living well” Aristotle Why People Move to Greater Houston. *economic growth *housing affordability *opportunities for minorities

21. 1950 – 1970: From Census Bureau 1980-2009: From Harvard University 2010: From Demographia Annual Data Begins at 1980 Housing Affordability 1950-2013 MAJOR US METROPOLITAN AREAS: MEDIAN MULTIPLE  Median Multiple: Median House Price divided by Median Household Income

22. Largest Metropolitan Areas: Affordability HOUSE PRICE TO INCOME RATIO (MEDIAN MULTIPLE): 2013 From: Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey  Post WW2 Maximum Standard

24. Largest Metropolitan Areas: Domestic Migration NET: 2010-2013 Derived from ; Census Bureau data

26. Largest Metropolitan Areas: Growth 2000-2013 Derived from ; Census Bureau data

27. Largest Metropolitan Areas: Growth 2012-2013 Derived from ; Census Bureau data

28. Growth in Residents with BA+ Degrees 2007-2012 Derived from ; Census Bureau data

29. Derived from Census Bureau data Note: US 20-29 Growth 4.0% Age 20-29 Population Change: 2010-2013 15 LARGEST METROPOLITAN AREAS

30. Derived from ; Census Bureau Data % of Population Aged Under 14 (2012) LARGEST METROPOLITAN AREAS

31. The miracle of toleration was to be found, “wherever the community of trade convened.” The Cosmopolitan City French historian Fernand Braudel on Venice, Antwerp, Amsterdam and London in the early Modern Period

32. Largest Foreign Born Populations WORLD CITIES OVER 5 MILLION Figure 32

33. Figure 33 White-Non-Hispanic Share of Population US: 1960-2050 Source: Bureau of the Census

34. Source: Myers & Pitkin Foreign Born Share of New Households US: 1970-2010 Figure 34

35. Foreign Born Population: Fastest Growing MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS: 2000-2012 Derived from ; Census Bureau data

40. Can Houston Keep its Momentum? Maintain Pro-Business Attitudes Integration of Immigrants Improve education and skills

41. It all depends on her… Education is the biggest challenge for Texas…making progress but more is needed

42. Needed: A Return to Reality *Providing Road to Upward Mobility *More Emphasis on Practical Skills *Less Ideology, and Feel-Good, more Discipline and Hard Work

43. MIDDLE CLASS OPTIMISM FOR NEXT GENERATION SOURCE: Pew Social & Demographic Trends

44. Consumer Housing Preferences NAR/SMART GROWTH AMERICA SURVEY: 2012

45. Largest Metropolitan Areas & Houston 2000-2010 GROWTH RATE BY RING Derived from ; Census Bureau Data Detroit Excluded due to overall loss Chart$$$ Downtown Office Vacancy Rate: 2013:Q2

46. Largest Metropolitan Areas: Building Permits SINGLE FAMILY HOUSES” 2013 Derived from ; Census Bureau data

47. Burdened With Student Debt, Millennials Are More Able to Rent than Buy Homeownership Rate for 25 to 34 Year Olds Total Renter Households Source: U.S. Census Bureau Housing and the “Screwed” Generation

48. Figure 48 Top 5 Metropolitan Areas: Projection to 2042 2012-2042 POPULATION Derived from ; US Conference of Mayors data

49. What makes a great City? “an inventory of the possible” Rene Descartes on Amsterdam in the 17 th Century

50. Questions and Comment