1. They Don’t Live Here Anymore Housing Implications of NH’s Shifting Economy, School Enrollment and Demographic Trends Presentation to NHHFA Housing Seminar November 2012 Applied Economic Research Laconia, New Hampshire They Don't Live Here Anymore

2. Major Points New Hampshire’s job, population and housing growth has slowed markedly – Less growth pressure at the local level, including fewer students – Fewer new units in the housing inventory – Slower revenue growth at State level Earlier studies confirmed: fewer school kids – 20,000 fewer school kids than in 2000 in NH (grades1-12) – Average NH occupied unit generates 0.40+/- kids – Districts now closing rather than building school capacity – Some districts actively recruiting tuition students – No longer too many kids…now: not enough kids to support fixed costs and existing facilities Ageing population has pronounced effect on housing occupancy – All of state’s household growth 2000-10 was over age 45, younger households in decline – Almost two-thirds of state’s occupied units have two or fewer people in them – Older folks tend to stay put – Older folks tend to remain owners They Don't Live Here Anymore

3. Economic Trends: Slower Growth They Don't Live Here Anymore

4. NH Job Picture Is Improving They Don't Live Here Anymore

5. Recovery is Weaker Than Our Last One They Don't Live Here Anymore

6. Longer Term Trend is Revealing They Don't Live Here Anymore

7. The Bottom Line: A New Normal? They Don't Live Here Anymore

8. State’s Population Growth is Slowing: They Are Living Somewhere Else State’s population growth peaked in the 1970s and 1980s. Growth 2000-2010 was less than half the peak rate. Slower job growth overall and manufacturing job losses underlie this slower growth They Don't Live Here Anymore

9. Housing Inventory Growth Slows An obvious corollary to slower population growth is: we need fewer new housing units. During the past decade, inventory grew at half the pace of the go-go 1980s and one-third slower than in the 90s. Current pace is at record low They Don't Live Here Anymore

10. Powerful Demographic Changes They Don't Live Here Anymore

11. Both Natural Increase and Migration Ebb They Don't Live Here Anymore Source: http://carseyinstitute.unh.edu/sites/carseyinstitute.unh.edu/files/publications/Report-Johnson-Demographic-Trends-NH-21st-Century.pdf

12. Slowdown is Speeding Up They Don't Live Here Anymore Source: http://carseyinstitute.unh.edu/sites/carseyinstitute.unh.edu/files/publications/Report-Johnson-Demographic-Trends-NH-21st-Century.pdf

13. All of State’s Net Population Growth 2000-2010 Was Over Age 55, School Age Population Fell Ageing in place is the primary reason—boomers are staying where they are, but getting older. It is not clear that younger households are fleeing the state, but state may not be as attractive as other areas to Gen X and Gen Y. They Don't Live Here Anymore

14. A Tale of Two States They Don't Live Here Anymore Source: http://carseyinstitute.unh.edu/sites/carseyinstitute.unh.edu/files/publications/Report-Johnson-Demographic-Trends-NH-21st-Century.pdf

15. They Leave In Their 20s…. Then Come Back They Don't Live Here Anymore Source: http://carseyinstitute.unh.edu/sites/carseyinstitute.unh.edu/files/publications/Report-Johnson-Demographic-Trends-NH-21st-Century.pdf

16. Almost Half (42%) of State’s Household Heads Are Over Age 55 They Don't Live Here Anymore

17. Younger Households in Decline All of the household growth 2000-2010 was in households age 45 or over. Significant factor in public service requirements now and in the future—fewer schools, more nursing homes. Dramatic impact on housing markets – Shifts in demand for rental versus ownership units – Who will buy, when the boomers decide to downsize? They Don't Live Here Anymore

18. NH Household Composition 2010: Less Than One-Third of the State’s Housing Units Include Someone Under Age 18 Contributing factors include: – Ageing population – Delayed families – More singles They Don't Live Here Anymore

19. Traditional Households Are On The Decline: Non-Family Households Growing Five Times Faster than Married Couple Families They Don't Live Here Anymore

20. Fastest Growth Is Among Smaller Households Ageing of the population is a significant contributor; Younger households delaying child rearing is another element; They Don't Live Here Anymore

21. Current Market Conditions They Don't Live Here Anymore

22. Sales Volume is Rising They Don't Live Here Anymore

23. Modest Decline in Inventory They Don't Live Here Anymore

24. Backlog Easing Modestly They Don't Live Here Anymore

25. Prices Essentially Stable They Don't Live Here Anymore

26. Light At The End Of The Tunnel? They Don't Live Here Anymore

27. Substantial Variation Within State They Don't Live Here Anymore

28. Significant Inventory Variation They Don't Live Here Anymore

29. Foreclosures Ease Modestly, But Are Still Problematic They Don't Live Here Anymore

30. Rental Market Is Healthy for Owners They Don't Live Here Anymore

31. Local Impact: The Demographics of Housing and School Enrollment They Don't Live Here Anymore

32. 2000-2010: Enrollment per Occupied Unit Falls to 0.37 Students Added 44,400 Households, But Enrollment Fell by 14,900 in Grades 1-12 They Don't Live Here Anymore

33. Pattern is Consistent: Most Communities Added Units But Most Also Experienced Enrollment Declines They Don't Live Here Anymore Source: NH Public Policy

34. Northern Counties Show Steepest Enrollment Decline State’s northern counties are ageing faster than the, southern-urban settings; State’s northern counties are growing slower, overall, including school age population; Southern counties experiencing immigration NHHFA Enrollment Analysis34

35. Southern, Urban NH Has Higher Enrollment per Unit They have experienced higher overall population growth; They have experienced higher immigration of younger foreign-born households. NHHFA Enrollment Analysis35

36. Enrollment By Unit Type-- Overall 0.4 Students per Unit Census’s American Community Survey indicates single family units generate fewer than.5 students on average. Structures with more units (typically garden complexes) generate only.17 students per unit. They Don't Live Here Anymore

37. Large New Units=Slightly Higher Enrollment Number of bedrooms is the principal variable structuring enrollment per unit. Census American Community Survey confirms this is the case, especially among newer, larger units. Bedrooms are more critical than when unit was built, per se. They Don't Live Here Anymore

38. Case Study Data For New Units Is Consistent with Census Based Demographic Data Case study communities included just over 1,600 new units (2005-11) housing just under 800 students. Overall, a new housing unit generates less than one-half (.48) student. NHHFA Enrollment Analysis38

39. Case Study New Unit Enrollment Varies Sharply with Bedroom Count New four bedroom single family units generate an average of just under one student per unit. New three bedroom single family units generate fewer than one-half students per units. Two bedroom units generate less than.1 students per units NHHFA Enrollment Analysis39

40. First Grade Enrollment Has Fallen Sharply, But May Be Leveling Off First grade enrollment structures future total enrollment as those students pass through grade levels. Some stability emerged this year, but one year is not the whole story. This factor bears watching. They Don't Live Here Anymore

41. Births In Steep Drop—Older Marriages, Fewer Children In the absence of in- migration, this dramatic decline in births portends future enrollment declines; Reflect: – Slower overall population growth; – Fewer women in childbearing ages – Delayed marriage and childbearing among younger households They Don't Live Here Anymore

42. Enrollment Declines Likely to Continue As fewer births and smaller entering class sizes continue to be a factor, enrollment will continue to decline. Would take a dramatic increase in migration into the state to reverse this trend They Don't Live Here Anymore

43. Declines Continue Even With Higher Migration If migration is increased by 400 basis points (add 4% to most likely scenario) enrollment only reaches 2005 level; If migration slows further (200 basis points) enrollment losses deepen NHHFA Enrollment Analysis43

44. Older Households Tend To Stay Put They Don't Live Here Anymore

45. Majority of Elderly Remain Owners They Don't Live Here Anymore

46. Over Half of Our Ownership Units Have Only One or Two People in Them They Don't Live Here Anymore

47. Housing Strategy Considerations The growth-generated demand for new housing units has subsided; More and more of our units have fewer and fewer people in them—we need more smaller, sexy units and fewer four bedroom units as a share of total inventory; The status quo would have our aging population staying put, rattling around in houses too big, while young families stay in rental units that are too small; Newer, innovative housing for the aging population could free up larger SF units for younger households; Now or in the future we probably will find ourselves with too many large units; They Don't Live Here Anymore

48. Right-Sized Housing Today’s NormalTomorrow’s Normal? They Don't Live Here Anymore