Business Research Process (Step 4-5) Chapter 6 Business Research Process (Step 4-5) References: Business Research Book of VU Research Methods For Business (Uma Sekaran) Resource Person: Furqan-ul-haq Siddiqui

The Business Research Process   The Business Research Process Problem definition Theoretical Framework Variables Identification and labelling Generation of Hypothesis Observation    Broad problem area 1 Preliminary Data Gathering  5 4 2 3 Scientific Research Design 6   Data Collection, analysis & interpretation NO Deduction Research Question Answered? Decision Making Report Presentation Report Writing Yes

4. Theoretical Framework A theoretical framework is a conceptual model of how one theorizes the relationship among the several factors that have been identified as important to the problem. From the theoretical framework, testable hypotheses can be developed to see whether the theory formulated is valid or not. Theoretical framework addresses: Elaborates the relationship among the variables. Explains the logic underlying these relationships. Describes the nature, and direction of the relationships.

The Components of the Theoretical Framework A good theoretical framework identifies and labels the important variables in the situation that are relevant to the problem identified. Make an inventory of variables: The variables considered relevant to the study should be clearly identified and labeled in the discussion. Specify the direction of relationship: Theorize the direction of relationship among the variable  negative or positive. Give a clear explanation of why we should expect the proposed relationships to exist: based upon logic, previous studies etc.

4. Make an inventory of propositions: Stipulation of logical relationship between any two variables means the formulation of a proposition. If such relationships have been proposed between different variables, it will result in the formulation of a number of propositions. Number of interrelationships resulting in a number of propositions. 5. Arrange these propositions in a sequential order: One proposition generates the next proposition, which generates the next following proposition, which in turn generates the next following proposition, and so on.

Got it

Example: Research Question: Why middle class families are experiencing decline in their size? Inventory of variables: Education levels of the couples, age at marriage, working women, exposure to mass media of communication, accessibility to health services, rationalism, practicing of family planning practices, aspirations about the education of children, shift to nuclear families, mobility orientation. A nuclear family is a family group consisting of only a father and mother and their children, who share living quarters. This can be contrasted with an extended family. Nuclear families can be of any size, as long as there are only children and two parents. Nuclear families meet their individual members’ basic needs because available resources are divided among only a few individuals or the family would be known as an extended family.

Specify the direction of relationship: If you just make statements by using variables, it can indicate the direction of relationship. Higher the education higher the age at marriage. Higher the education of women greater the chances of their being career women. Higher the education more the rationalism. Higher the education more the practicing of family planning practices. Higher the education of the parents the higher their aspirations about the education of their children. Higher the education of the couple greater thee chances of shifting to nuclear families. Higher the education of the couples the higher their mobility orientation.

3. Give a clear explanation of why we should expect the proposed relationships to exist. For example higher the education higher the age at marriage. One could build up the argument like this: For purposes of getting high levels of education the youngsters spend about 16 years of their life in educational institutions…… 4. Make an inventory of propositions. The relationships specified under item 2 can be examples of propositions. Formulate additional propositions by using other combinations of variables.

5. Arrange these propositions in a sequential order 5. Arrange these propositions in a sequential order. These propositions can be arranged sequentially. Higher the education, more the rationalism. Higher the rationalism, more the investment in career achievement. Greater the investment in career achievement, higher the age at marriage. Higher the age at marriage, smaller the size of family.

Variables It may be said that a variable generally is anything that may assume different numerical or categorical values. The values can differ at various times for the same object or person, or the the values can differ at the same time for different objects or persons.

For example gender, Marital status, Family income, A person’s attitude toward women empowerment is variable; it can range from highly favorable to highly unfavorable. In this way the variation can be in quantity, intensity, amount, or type; the examples can be production units, absenteeism, gender, religion, motivation, grade, and age. A variable may be situation specific; for example gender is a variable but if in a particular situation like a class of Research Methods if there are only female students, then in this situation gender will not be considered as a variable.

Dependent Variable (Criterion variable) The dependent variable is the variable of primary interest to the researcher. The researcher’s goal is to explain or predict the variability, in the dependent variable. The variable that is the effect or is the result or outcome of another variable is the dependent variable (also referred to as outcome variable or effect variable). “The Dependent Variable ‘depends’ on the manipulation or experimental conditions (Independent Variable)” The dependent variable “depends on” the causes. The sales of a new product introduced after marketing is not as high as expected S = f (m) where s= sales & m= marketing

Independent Variable (Predictor variable) An independent variable is one that influence the dependent variable in either a positive or negative way Independent variable is what you or nature manipulates a treatment or program or cause. with each unit of increase in the independent variable, there is is increase or decrease in the dependent variable. S = f (m) where s= sales & m= marketing

Relationships between Variables The ultimate goal or research analysis is to find a relationship between variables We want to reject the null hypothesis- that there is no relationship between the independent and dependent variable

Relationship between independent and dependent variable Research studies indicate that successful new product development has an influence on the stock market price of a company. That is, the more successful the new product turns out to be, the higher will be the stock market price of that firm. Therefore, the success of the New product is the independent variable, and stock market price the dependent variable. Stock market price (dependent variable) New product success (independent variable)

Exercise An Bank manager wants to increase the commitment of his subordinates by increasing their salaries. What would be the dependent & Independent variable?

EXERCISE List the variables in this exercise individually and label them as dependent or independent. Diagram the relationship. Ex No. 1: A research indicates that taking milk makes the bones of children strong. Ex. No. 2: A manager believes that good supervision and training would increase the production level of the workers.

Moderating Variable The moderating variable is one that has strong contingent effect on the independent variable - dependent variables relationship The presence of a third variable (the moderating variable) modifies the originally expected relationship between the independent and the dependent variables.

Strong relationship between the library facility (X) and performance of students (Y). Depends on the “interest and inclination” of students (MV). Modifies the original relationship. It has been found that there is a relationship between the availability of reference manuals that manufacturing employees have access to and the product rejects. That is when workers follow the procedures laid down in the manual; they are able to manufacture products that are flawless. Although these relationships can be said to hold true generally for all workers it is nevertheless contingent on the inclination or urge of employees to look into the manual every time a new procedure is to be adopted.

Relationship between independent, dependent and Moderating variables # of rejects (dependent variable) Availability of reference manuals (independent variable) Interest & inclination (Moderating Variable)

Intervening/Mediating Variable An intervening variable is one that surfaces between the time the independent variable start operating to influence the dependant variable and the their impact is felt on it. It comes between the independent and dependent variables and shows the link or mechanism between them. a factor that affects the observed phenomenon but cannot be seen, measured, or manipulated, thus its effect must be inferred from the effects of the independent and moderating variables on the dependent variable; (imaginary or hypothetical variable which cant be seen, just can be felt) Surfaces between the time X starts influencing the Y. Time factor. In fact is a function of X. IV  IVV  DV. IVV may be DV for IV in the first place, then it is IV for DV.

Relationship among the independent, dependent, moderating and intervening variables Diagram relationship between workforce diversity, organizational effectiveness, managerial expertise & Creative Synergy . . . Independent Variable Intervening variable Dependent Variable . Moderating Variable

A theory of suicide states that married people are less likely to commit suicide than single people. marital status (independent variable) suicide (dependent variable) The assumption is that married people have greater social integration (e.g. feelings of belonging to a group or family). Hence a major cause of one type of suicide was that people lacked a sense of belonging to group (family). Degree of social integration (intervening variable) Five-day work week results in higher productivity. What exactly is that factor which theoretically affects the observed phenomenon but cannot be seen? The introduction of five-day work week (IV) will increase job satisfaction (IVV), which will lead to higher productivity (DV).

Examples Output of the organization increase or decrease due to employee attitude So the output dependent variable and employee attitude independent variable

The knowledge of child can be increase due to book readings The child knowledge is dependent, book reading independent, we can say the parents literacy is moderating, and informal education program from Government is intervening variable to both child & parents

The effective reward system can control the turnover rate of employees. Here the reward system can be called independent, turnover rate dependent, Training program intervening and manager expertise are moderating.

List and label the variables in following Situation. The manager of P&G observes that the morale of employees in her company is low. She thinks that if their working conditions are improved, pay scale raised and vocation benefits made attractive. The morale will be boasted But she doubts that’s pay increase would not effect morale of those employees who have supplemental income.

Relationship between theoretical framework and Preliminary Data Gathering Literature survey identifies the variables that might be important, as determined by previous research findings. Where as theoretical framework elaborates the relationships among the variables, explains the theory underlying these relations, and describes the nature and direction of relationships.

Hypotheses Development “Hypotheses are single tentative guesses, good hunches –assumed for use in devising theory or planning experiments intended to be given a direct experimental test when possible”. (Eric Rogers, 1966) “A hypothesis is a conjectural statement of the relation between two or more variables”. (Kerlinger, 1956) A hypothesis can be defined as a logically conjectured relationship between two or more variables expressed in the form of a testable statement A useful hypothesis is a testable statement which may include a prediction

“An hypothesis is a statement or explanation that is suggested by knowledge or observation but has not, yet, been proved or disproved.”(Macleod Clark J and Hockey L 1981) A problem cannot be scientifically solved unless it is reducedto hypothesis form. It is a powerful tool of advancement of knowledge, consistent with existing knowledge and conducive to further enquiry

The hypothesis is a clear statement of what is intended to be investigated. It should be specified before research is conducted and openly stated in reporting the results. This allows to: Identify the research objectives Identify the key abstract concepts involved in the research Identify its relationship to both the problem statement and the literature review

The Difference Between An Hypothesis And A Problem Both an hypothesis and a problem contribute to the body of knowledge which supports or refutes an existing theory.  An hypothesis differs from a problem.   A problem is formulated in the form of a question; it serves as the basis or origin from which an hypothesis is derived.  An hypothesis is a suggested solution to a problem.  A problem (question) cannot be directly tested, whereas an hypothesis can be tested and verified.

Types of Hypotheses

Null and Alternate Hypotheses The null hypothesis is expressed as no (significant relationship between two variables or no (significant) difference between two groups or the relationship between the variables is “zero.” That is how symbolically null hypothesis is denoted as “H0”. For example: H0 = There is no relationship between the level of job commitment and the level of efficiency. Or H0 = The relationship between level of job commitment and the level of efficiency is zero. Or The two variables are independent of each other. Experts recommend that we test our hypothesis indirectly by testing the null hypothesis. Rejection of the null hypothesis leads to the acceptance of the alternative hypothesis.

Alternative Hypothesis The alternative hypothesis, which is the opposite of the null, is a statement expressing a relationship between two variables or indicating difference between groups.

H0: μM = μW or H0: μM - μW = 0 where H0 represent null hypothesis μM is the mean motivational level of the men. μW is the mean motivational level of women The alternate for the preceding example would statistically be set as follows. HA: μM < μM HA: μM > μM where HA represents the term alternate hypothesis.

Errors in Hypotheses

A type I error is often considered to be more serious, and therefore more important to avoid, than a type II error.

Example A type I error occurs when the null hypothesis is true, but is rejected. A type II error occurs when the null hypothesis is false, but is not rejected. Consider the following: I am accused of a crime. The null hypothesis is that I am innocent, since we believe in the principle of “innocent until proven guilty”. A type I error would occur if I am in fact innocent, but I am convicted by a jury. A type II error would occur if I am in fact guilty, but I am acquitted by a jury.