1 4.5DEMOGRAPHY Demography is the study of population vital statistics. S. Ruckdeschel

2 With the advent of the agricultural revolution in approximately 8,000 B.C., human culture changed from a hunting-gathering society to an increasing dependence on farming. It took almost 10,000 years for world population to reach the 1 billion mark as agriculture slowly improved the carrying capacity (K) of the land. Farming and permanent living gave rise to the need for rules and their administration and eventually civilization.

3 World population continues to rise, even though the current growth rate of 1.19% has been declining since 1970, because the population base is so large. The largest increase in population has occurred since the beginning of the industrial revolution. In less than 200 years, the population has gone from 1 billion to over 6.7 billion. S. Ruckdeschel

4 Population increases are primarily due to a decline in death rates, rather than a rise in birth rates. Demographers have developed a hypothesis for population change called demographic transition.

5 1. Pre-industrial stage - high birth rates, high infant mortality, and high death rates resulting in low growth rates. 2. Transitional stage- industrialization begins and population increases dramatically; death rates drop while birth rates remain high. Many developing countries are in this stage.

6 3. Industrial stage - low birth and death rates with lower growth rates due to better education for women, birth control, and health care. Most developed nations are in this stage. 4. Post-industrial stage - birth rate equals or drops below death rate. Most European countries have achieved ZPG. Family planning is a necessary part of this demographic transition that includes choosing the number and the spacing of children. Families must balance societal needs for lower population with cultural and religious values and the need for family workers.

7 Reducing births is related to literacy among women, but a fundamental deterrent to ending poverty is that 1/4 of the world’s adults cannot read. If most of the population is pre-reproductive and/or reproductive age, the country has a high potential for growth. The age and number of females influences human population structure.

8 Africa has the highest average population growth rate. The worldwide average fertility rate is 2.8 children per woman – down from 5.0 children per woman in Fertility rates are down in nearly every country, but it may still take more than 100 years to stabilize world population because of its total size.

9 Because of the population-lag effect, a population can continue to grow for many years after replacement-level fertility as been achieved if a large percentage of the population is of child-bearing age.

10 Less developed countries comprise about 80% of the world’s people – 34 countries are in Africa primarily in Sub-Saharan Africa, 10 are in Eurasia, 5 are island nations in the oceans and I country (Haiti) is in North America. Most suffer the conditions of extreme poverty because of political instability fueled by oppressive governments who constantly engage in or support civil wars, ethnic clashes and political corruption. The economy is subordinated to the interests of an elite few or a dictator whose quest for wealth and power ignore the suffering of the majority who are denied access to basic opportunities for health, medical care, jobs, etc. For example, an estimated 28 million people are currently living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa.

11 China has the largest population, with India as the second largest. Together they make up 38% of world’s people. The U. S. has the 3rd highest population, but it only makes up 5% of the world population. Indonesia, Brazil and Russia finish out the list of the six largest countries, but by 2020, Nigeria and Pakistan are expected to replace Brazil and Russia.

12 In 1968, Paul R. Ehrlich wrote a best-selling book entitled “The Population Bomb” in which he predicted "in the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death", that nothing can be done to avoid mass famine greater than any in the history, and radical action is needed to limit the overpopulation. Primarily due to the efforts of Norman Borlaug’s “Green Revolution,” and promotion of ZPG that may have helped some in slowing population growth rates in MDC, Ehrlich’s predictions did not come true.