Climate Risk Management Approach in the IRI (from months, through decades, to long-term climate change) Four Pillars Identify Vulnerabilities and Opportunities in Climate Variability and Change in Collaboration with “Stakeholders” (which systems, what components within systems) Understand / Quantify / Reduce Uncertainties (learn from the past, monitor the present, provide relevant info on the future) Identify Interventions (Technologies) that Reduce Vulnerability (e.g., vaccination, drought resistance crops, water holding capacity) Identify Policies and Institutional Arrangements that reduce Vulnerability and/or Transfer Risks (Early Warning / Early Response Systems, Insurance, Credit) (Baethgen, 2010)

Climate Models: Simulating Past Observed Climate Example: SE South America SONDJF IPCC Model Range and Mean Anomalies (mm/month)

Observed IPCC Model Range and Mean Climate Models: Simulating Past Observed Climate Example: SE South América SONDJF Anomalies (mm/month)

Observations (last 15 years) Climate Change Projections (end of 21 st century) Decadal-scale variability is important

Climate Variability & Change Globally Temperature Most of the variability in the globally-averaged temperature is contained in the slowly varying “climate change” component. 65% 13% 21% (Greene, Goddard & Cousin, EOS, 2010) Annual Mean Temperature CC Acceleration? CC Hiatus?

Climate Variability & Change Locally Observations for Colorado, USA - DJF 12% 21% 65% 1% 19% 75% Temperature Precipitation All timescales matter

Key Points Scenarios based exclusively on Climate Models are uncertain (worse for precipitation, worse at regional, even worse at local) Scenarios focusing only in “trends” (“Climate Change”) miss important Information on Climate Variability (Interannual, Decadal, Extreme Events) Climate Models do not simulate well Decadal Variability (and it can be important in some regions of the world) The majority of the total climate variability is found in the Interannual temporal scale (60-80%)

Climate Risk Management Approach in the IRI (from months, through Decades, to Climate Change) Four Pillars Identify Vulnerabilities and Opportunities in Climate Variability and Change in Collaboration with “Stakeholders” (which systems, what components within systems) Understand / Quantify / Reduce Uncertainties (learn from the past, monitor the present, provide relevant info on the future) Identify Interventions (Technologies) that Reduce Vulnerability (e.g., vaccination, drought resistance crops, water holding capacity) Identify Policies and Institutional Arrangements that reduce Vulnerability and/or Transfer Risks (Early Warning / Early Response Systems, Insurance, Credit) (Baethgen, 2010)

CRM: Manage the Entire Range of VARIABILITY Probability (Density) Climate related Outcome (e.g., food production)

CRM: Manage the Entire Range of VARIABILITY CRISIS e.g., Mitch HARDSHIP e.g., Drought Climate related Outcome (e.g., food production) Probability (Density) Production Systems are designed to avoid this (fertilizers, good seeds)

CRISIS e.g., Mitch HARDSHIP e.g., Drought Probability (Density) Climate related Outcome (e.g., food production) CRM: Manage the Entire Range of VARIABILITY INDEX INSURANCE Insurance is not to Compensate Damage but to take Advantage of Opportunities MISSED OPPORTUNITIES

International Research Institute Local University Agricultural Research Institute Extension Service, Adviser, NGO Farmer Knowledge Generation Knowledge “Translation”, “Tailoring” Boundary Organizations Knowledge Application Operation Policy New Research Questions New Knowledge Demands Here are the main Challenges: Need a “new type” of Scientist? (Translator, Integrator) When the Links / Chains are not present we try to create them (The solution is not to “skip links”, but to create/strengthen the links) Take Advantage, Understand constraints, etc of Existing Information Networks: “Simplified” Example in Agriculture Science and Society: Information Chains, Networks Ministry, Agribusiness, Insurance Conceptual Framework (1): Advances in Science not proportional to their Applications