1. Michel Rixen, WCRP Joint Planning Staff
World Climate Research Programme EAG-FRT I December 2011 Geneva, Switzerland
Michel Rixen, WCRP Joint Planning Staff

2. (WCRP Strategic Framework 2005-2015).
Mission & Objectives
World Climate Research Programme supports climate related decision making and adaptation planning by coordinating research required to improve:
climate predictions and
understanding of human influence on climate
“for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society”
(WCRP Strategic Framework ).

3. The Interdisciplinary Nature of Climate Science
Atmosphere, Oceans and Climate
Cryosphere and Climate
Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics
Water, Energy and Climate
Meeting the Information Needs of Society
Activities in Support of Key Deliverables
Decadal Variability, Predictability and Prediction
Sea-Level Variability and Change
Climate Extremes
Centennial Climate Change Projections
Seasonal to interannual Climate Prediction
Sub-seasonal to seasonal Predictions
Regional Climate Science and information
Activities in Support of WCRP Integrating Themes
Climate-Quality Data Sets and Analyses
A New Generation of Climate/Earth System Models
Next Generation of Climate Experts: Developing Capacity Regionally and Globally 3

4. Global Framework for Climate Services

5. WCRP Open Science Conference
24-28 October 2011
Denver, Colorado, USA
Promoting, Facilitating and Coordinating
Climate Research in Service to Society
Main outcome: ”actionable science“:
scientists and private sector need to
work together toward
actionable climate information

6. Uncertainty, risk and decision making
Probability and cost matter
No risk estimate w/o reliable uncertainty/PDF
No decision making w/o risk estimate
From simple models’ spread/standard deviation to complex non-linear full PDF

7. WCRP Extremes crosscut
Decrease in return period of extreme temperatures (left) and precipitation (right) for IPCC scenarios B1, A1B and A2

9. CORDEX Regional downscaling

10. Multi-model ensembles: more robust predictions and statistics

11. First CORDEX Africa projections based on CMIP5 Representative Concentration Pathways (radiative forcing based)

13. Joint WCRP/WWRP effort on sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions

14. Points for discussion International programs with key players
WGCM/CMIP5: coupled modeling, now-2100
WGSIP: seasonal to interannual
WGNE: understanding processes and parameterization
YOTC/MJO: increase predictability, sub-seasonal
CORDEX: regional downscaling
GEWEX: strong extremes expertise
Cross-cuts: extremes and droughts, sea level and cryosphere, tropical cyclones, etc

15. Points for discussion More research: Variability versus trend
Observing systems and reanalyses
Coupled modeling and data assimilation
Multi-model (super-)ensembles, uncertainties, indices
Downscaling techniques
Process studies and predictability
Extremes

16. Conclusions
WCRP provides the scientific foundation for climate research on broad spatio-temporal scales
Capturing/predicting uncertainty is central to risk management and robust decision making
Multi-models ensembles are necessary

17. Thank you for your attention!