1. 1 The Carbon Reduction Project Hard Choices Ahead Climate Change: The Greatest Threat to Mankind? United Reform Church Synod: 15 th March 2008 Keith Tovey ( Н.К.Тови ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Lay Chairman: Norwich East Deanery, Energy Science Director HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation at UEA CRed

2. 22 Changes in Temperature and Carbon Dioxide

3. 33 Total winter precipitation Total summer precipitation Source: Tim Osborne, CRU Change in precipitation 1961-2001 Increasing Occurrence of DroughtIncreasing Occurrence of Flood

4. 4 (Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London) Norwich Consequence of ~ 1m rise Consequence of ~ 6m rise Norwich City would be playing water polo!

5. 5 Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) actual predicted Is Global Warming man made? Prediction: Anthropogenic only Not a good match between 1920 and 1970 Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity 5

6. 6 Is Global Warming man made? Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office Prediction: Natural only good match until 1960 Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) actual predicted 6

7. 7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) actual predicted Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic Generally a good match Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity Is Global Warming man made? 7

8. 8 1979 2003 Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region NASA satellite imagery الصيف الجليد في القطب الشمالي تغطية المنطقة القطبيه ناسا الصور الفضاءيه Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.htmlhttp://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html 20% reduction in 24 years 20 ٪ تخفيض في 24 سنوات تغير المناخ اثار على الجليديه القطبيه كاب 1979 - 2003 8

9. Price projected by Government for Gas generation in 2020 UK becomes net importer of gas in 2004 Langeland and Balzand Pipe Lines completed 9 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2018.

10. 10 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

11. 11 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Scroby Sands had a Load factor of 25.8% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 60% needs of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich

12. 12 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kW

13. 13 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 300 sq km But energy needed to make PV takes up to 8 years to pay back in UK.

14. 14 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generated just over 5% of UK electricity needs. Transport Fuels: Biodiesel? Bioethanol? Compressed gas from methane from waste.

15. 15 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

16. 16 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

17. 17 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Output 78 000 GWh per annum Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney Save 40000 tonnes of CO 2

18. 18 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

19. 19 Opted Out Coal: Stations can only run for 20 000 hours more and must close by 2015 New Nuclear assumes completing 1 new nuclear station each year beyond 2018 New Coal assumes completing 1 new coal station each year beyond 2018 Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security There is a looming capacity shortfall Even with a full deployment of renewables. A 10% reduction in demand per house will see a steady level in total demand - Increased population decreased household size

20. 20 Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can develop carbon sequestration and apply it to ALL our power stations NOW - Apart from small schemes it is not available at present. Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks? If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

21. 21 Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming by using coal? -the North Norfolk Coal Field? Aylsham Colliery, North Walsham Pit? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

22. 22 How carbon friendly is the Energy we use?

23. 23 How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO 2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. Around 4 million over Norfolk. In the developing world, the average is under 1 balloon per person Is this Fair? On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO 2 each year. "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

24. 24 Raising Awareness A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO 2. 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. Standby on electrical appliances 60+ kWh a year - 3000 balloons at a cost of over £6 per year Filling up with petrol (~£41 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO 2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour? 1.6 miles At Gaoan No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

25. 25 The Behavioural Dimension Household size has little impact on electricity consumption. Consumption varies by up to a factor of 9 for any given household size. Allowing for Income still shows a range of 6 or more. Education/Awareness is important

26. 26 Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004 Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Solar Thermal Energy

27. 27 Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Solar Thermal Energy

28. 28 House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles with Solar Panels - less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK! It is all very well for South East, but what about the North? House on Westray, Orkney exploiting passive solar energy from end of February

29. 29 Micro CHP Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions 29 Micro CHP plant for homes are being trialled. They replace the normal boiler But there is a problem in summer as there is limited demand for heat. Backup generation is still needed unless integrated with solar photovoltaic?

30. 30 Throttle Valve Condenser Heat supplied to house Evaporator Heat extracted from outside Low Temperature Low Pressure High Temperature High Pressure Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions The Heat Pump Any low grade source of heat may be used Typically coils buried in garden Bore holes Example of roof solar panel (Look East: Tuesday) Compressor A heat pump delivers 3, 4, or even 5 times as much heat as electricity put in. We are working with thermodynamics not against it.

31. 31 Involve the local Community The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned for a wind turbine. On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity. Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are now reaping the reward. Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by 2015.

32. 32 Involve the local Community Even better things are happening on the Island of Westray. The Parish Kirk, and Community Centre are heated by heat Pumps partly powered by Wind Turbines Waste cooking oil from other islands is processed into biodiesel for farm and other vehicles. Ethanol used in process is obtained from fermentation of harvested sea weed

33. 33 Ways to Reduce Your Carbon Footprint: Micro Wind While these device are now available, and at least one manufacturer claims (or at least did claim) you could get cash back of up to £50, in 2007, none of the devices in UK appear to have generated sufficient to even trigger the basic threshold.

34. 34 Transport: Fuel Consumption and Driver Behaviour Car: 5 door Toyota Yaris Real performance is best at ~ 50 mph. Saves up to 15% in fuel consumption cf 70 mph. Driver behaviour at low to moderate speeds can affect consumption by up to 10% New Vehicles: A Hybrid Vehicle

35. 35 Historic Trends: Freight Distance each tonne has travelled has increased by: –223% since 1960 –20% since 1990 Is this increase in movement of freight conducive to optimum economic growth, energy security, and carbon reduction?

36. 36 Social Issues: Lift Sharing Our congested roads are full of empty seats The UK leader in lift sharing, Liftshare.com is based in Norfolk; Aim: CO2, Car Occupancy 2 52 million km shared each year. Car travel (2006 statistics): 679 billion passenger kilometres 398 billion vehicle kilometres Average occupancy 1.71. Raising this to an average of 2 would save 9.9 Mtonnes CO 2. Lift sharing/car pooling is very cost effective, can help combat social exclusion, and enhance the effectiveness of public transport. Increasing average car occupancy is a very cheap way of saving CO2 and reducing car use.

37. A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future 1. Awareness 3. Renewable Energy 4. Offsetting 2. Technical Solutions

38. 38 WEBSITE Cred-uk.org/ This presentation will be available from tomorrow at above WEB Site: follow Academic Links We have difficult choices to make Reduce Energy we use Integrated approach to renewables Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old persons room Conclusions Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge? Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."

40. 40 Act of Commitment As we celebrate the goodness, diversity and wonder of Gods creation, we admit our collective guilt in allowing species to become so swiftly extinct, in depleting finite energy and raw materials, and in polluting the earths soil, water and atmosphere. Let us be ready to change the way we think and live. Through our lives and by our prayers Your kingdom come. Let us commit ourselves, as individuals and within our churches, to do all we can to heal and restore the damage people have caused to Gods earth, and to develop sustainable lifestyles, both for ourselves and to inspire others. Through our lives and by our prayers Your kingdom come. Let us commit ourselves to do all in our power to support church communities planning a better way of living in their localities. Through our lives and by our prayers Your kingdom come.

41. 41 Act of Commitment Let each of us commit ourselves to play our part and take what action we can to cherish Gods creation. Through our lives and by our prayers Your kingdom come. We pledge to pray and work for an environmentally sustainable and socially just world, in the interest of all earths Inhabitants, both present and future generations, and for the well-being and flourishing of the whole earth. Amen

43. 43 Animation Courtesy of Rob Hannington