Presentation on theme: "The Path to a Sustainable Low Carbon Future for our Children:"— Presentation transcript:
1 The Path to a Sustainable Low Carbon Future for our Children: The Hard Choices Facing UsRotary Club of CorbyAnnual Lecture 5th November 2009Recipient of James Watt Gold MedalKeith Tovey (杜伟贤) Н.К.Тови M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnvEnergy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation CentreSchool of Environmental Sciences, UEA. Rotary Club of Norwich
2 How much Energy is there in different fuels? Understanding EnergyHow much Energy is there in different fuels?MegaJoulesYogurtskWhYogurt85000 calories (85kcal)0.36510.11 cubic meter gas39.6106.810.81 litre petrol32.990.19.11 litre diesel35.797.89.91 litre LPG25.068.67.01 litre heating oil35.396.69.8
4 Increasing Occurrence of Drought Increasing Occurrence of Flood 44
5 Norwich City would be playing water polo! Consequence of ~ 1m riseConsequence of ~ 6m riseNorwichIf we don’t do anything about it now, what would happen in the future is Norwich could be under water due to the large sea level rises.To avoid working under water at UEA in a few hundreds of years, we have to quickly develop effective measures to reduce CO2 emission. One of such measures is to use carbon-free or clean fuels. Hydrogen is regarded as a clean energy carrier of the future, particularly to replace petrol for mobile application.(Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London)Norwich City would be playing water polo!55
6 Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 تغير المناخ اثار على الجليديه القطبيه كابSummer ice coverage of Arctic Polar RegionNASA satellite imageryالصيف الجليد في القطب الشمالي تغطية المنطقة القطبيهناسا الصور الفضاءيه2003197920% reduction in 24 years20 ٪ تخفيض في 24 سنواتSource: Nasa666
7 Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security Import Gap
9 Electricity Generation in the UK Coal 37.7%Gas 35.5%Oil 1.3%Other 2.0%Renewable 4.7%Nuclear 18.9%Power StationLosses 8.5%42% efficient in UKEmissions depends on efficiency, losses and fuelCoal ~ 1000 gmsOil ~ 900 gmsGas ~ 400 gmsNuclear ~ 20gmsEach unit of electricity used causes the emission of 540 gms in UK but only 70gms in France.
10 Langeland and Balzand Pipe Lines completed Options for Electricity Generation in 2020- Non-Renewable MethodsGas CCGT0 - 80% (curently 35%)Available now (but is now running out)~2p + but recent trends put figure much higherLangeland and Balzand Pipe Lines completedUK becomes net importer of gas in 2004Price projected by Government for Gas generation in 20201010
11 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Gas CCGT0 - 80% (curently 35%)Available now (but is now running out)~2p + but recent trends put figure much higherNuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2018.Carbon sequestration either by burying it or use methanolisation as a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s1111
12 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
13 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Scroby Sands had a Load factor of % but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 60% needs of houses in Norwich.At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich13
14 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk.Rated capacity 5.5 kW
15 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 400 sq km - But energy needed to make PV takes up to 10 years to pay back in UK.
16 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Transport Fuels:Biodiesel?Bioethanol?Compressed gas frommethane from waste.But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generate just over 5% of UK electricity needs.
17 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
18 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
19 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Output GWh per annum -Sufficient for houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables southSave tonnes of CO2
20 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
21 Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security There is a looming capacity shortfallEven with a full deployment of renewables.A 10% reduction in demand per house will see a rise of 7% in total demand- Increased population decreased household size
22 Our Choices: They are difficult Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?.Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years.If our answer is NODo we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?If our answer is NODo we want to return to using coal?then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantlyunless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELYIf our answer to coal is NODo we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>
23 Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YESBy 2020we will be dependent on GASfor around 70% of our heating and electricityimported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, AlgeriaAre we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>If not:We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.
24 How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like? On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?5 hot air balloons per person per year."Nobody made a greater mistakethan he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)
25 School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya Raising AwarenessA tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, LibyaAt Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai上海徐汇区高第一小学A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year~ 500 balloons each year.Standby on electrical appliancesup to kWh a year balloons. (up to £15 a year)A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.Filling up with petrol (~£38 for a full tank – 40 litres)kg of CO (5% of one hot air balloon)How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?1.6 miles
26 The Behavioural Dimension Social Attitudes towards energy consumption have a profound effect on actual consumptionData collected from 114 houses in NorwichFor a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER] can vary by as much as 9 times.When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times26
27 Involve the local Community -The BroadSol Project Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004Annual Solar Gain 910 kWhMembers of community agreed to purchase Solar Panels at same time. Significantly reduced costs
28 It is all very well for South East, but what about the North? House on Westray, Orkney exploiting passive solar energy from end of FebruaryHouse in Lerwick, Shetland Isles with Solar Panels- less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK!
29 Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: Solar Photovoltaic Photovoltaic cells are still expensive, but integration of ideas is needed.Output depends on type but varies from ~70kWh to ~100kWh per square meter per year. Average house in Norwich consumes ~ 3779 kWh per year [14th/408] , inEaton Rise District of Norwich ~ kWhWest Norfolk, 6082 kWh [391st/408] per year
30 Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: The Heat Pump Any low grade source of heat may be usedCoils buried in garden 1 – 1.5 m deepBore holesLakes/Rivers are idealAir can be used but is not as goodBest performance if the temperature source between outside source and inside sink is as small as possible.Heat pump delivers 3, 4, or even 5 times as much heat as electricity put in.
31 Horizontal Axis Mini Wind 6 kW Proven Turbine powering a Heat Pump providing heating for Parish Kirk, WestrayIn 2007/8, mini wind turbines had a load factor of ~ 10.5% on average>>> annual output of approximately kWh/annum313131
32 Involve the local Community The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned for a wind turbine.On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity.Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are now reaping the reward.Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by 2015.323232
33 A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future 未来的低碳之路 1. 不要浪费能源 Awareness2. 使用效率高的设备 Technical SolutionsDon’t need the English on this slide so Chinese is fine4. 抵消碳排放 Offsetting3. 使用可再生能源 Renewable Energy
34 What can we do? WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org What can you do in your schoolWhat can you do at homeWhere are the biggest savings in Energy and carbon emissions?Energy Security issues will be just as important as Carbon reduction in the UK and will increasingly affect us all in next 10 yearsGlobal warming will increasingly affect our fellow citizens of the planet in the developing world in the next 10 yearsAddressing Energy Security by taking small steps now will also help with Global WarmingOtherwise we may have to choose whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat our home.WEBSITEThis presentation will be on WEB from tomorrow >follow Academic Resources Link“If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.”（直译）：“如果你不改变，你将止步于原地。”Lao Tzu ( BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher老子 （ BC）中国古代思想家、哲学家
37 Is Global Warming man made? actual predicted Prediction: Natural only 1.00.50.0-0.5Temperature Rise (oC)Is Global Warming man made?actualpredictedPrediction: Natural onlygood match until 19601.00.50.0-0.5Temperature Rise (oC)actualpredictedPrediction: Anthropogenic onlyNot a good match between 1920 and 1970Predictions include:Greenhouse Gas emissionsSulphates and ozoneSolar and volcanic activity1.00.50.0-0.5Temperature Rise (oC)actualPrediction: Natural and AnthropogenicGenerally a good matchpredictedSource: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office3737