1. CRed Carbon Reduction 1 Keith Tovey ( ) Н.К.Тови M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre School of Environmental Sciences, UEA Rotarian Keith Tovey Rotary Club of Norwich Rotary Club of Kirkwall – 20 th September 2007 Climate Change – The Greatest Threat to Mankind? Hard Choices Ahead – the CRED Project

2. CRed Carbon Reduction 2 Climate Change Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region –Nasa satellite imagery Source: Nasa www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html 20% reduction in 24 years 2003 1979

3. CRed Carbon Reduction 3 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods - figures taken from Energy Review 2002 Новая система оптовой торговли НЕТА

4. CRed Carbon Reduction 4 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

5. CRed Carbon Reduction 5 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Transport Fuels: Biodiesel? Bioethanol?

6. CRed Carbon Reduction 6 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

7. CRed Carbon Reduction 7 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

8. CRed Carbon Reduction 8 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

9. CRed Carbon Reduction 9 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Output 78 000 GWh per annum Sufficient for 13500 house in Orkney Save 40000 tonnes of CO 2

10. CRed Carbon Reduction 10 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

11. CRed Carbon Reduction 11 Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004

12. CRed Carbon Reduction 12 Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ? Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks? If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>> Our Choices: They are difficult

13. CRed Carbon Reduction 13 Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent on GAS for around 70% of our heating and electricity imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

14. CRed Carbon Reduction 14 How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO 2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO 2 each year. "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

15. CRed Carbon Reduction 15 Raising Awareness A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m. 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. Standby on electrical appliances 60+ kWh a year - 3000 balloons. A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year ~ 500 balloons each year. Filling up with petrol (~£40 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour? 1.6 miles At Gaoan No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO 2.

16. CRed Carbon Reduction 16 Hard Choices What can we as individuals do? What can you do collectively as a Club? Visit the CRed WEB Site Sign a pledge to combat global warming help secure a sustainable environment for our children help reduce the adverse impacts of Global Warming help secure energy supplies for the future saving energy Adopting technical solutions Promoting Awareness Promoting appropriate renewable energy www.cred-uk.org

17. CRed Carbon Reduction 17 A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future 1. Awareness 3. Renewable Energy 4. Offsetting 2. Technical Solutions

18. CRed Carbon Reduction 18 The Development of CRed HQ Carbon Reduction CRed Norfolk Carbon Reduction CRed Suffolk Carbon Reduction CRed Chester Carbon Reduction CRed Japan Carbon Reduction CRed North Carolina Carbon Reduction CRed Essex Carbon Reduction CRed Birmingham Carbon Reduction CRed Rotary Carbon Reduction CRed China Carbon Reduction CRed Cambridge Carbon Reduction Overseas UK Coming Soon CRed Camden Carbon Reduction In the Future???? CRed Districts 1080 and 1110 have already started Can District 1010 do even better?

19. CRed Carbon Reduction 19 Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future. Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy –It is as much about the individual s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take. Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years. –Technical/Economic constraints prevent large scale development of photovoltaic, tidal and wave in this period Otherwise Nuclear??? Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us. Conclusions

20. CRed Carbon Reduction 20 WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org This presentation will be available on WEB from next Monday >follow Academic Resources Link Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person s room And Finally Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge? Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."

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23. CRed Carbon Reduction 23 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office actual predicted Is Global Warming man made? Prediction: Anthropogenic only Not a good match between 1920 and 1970 Prediction: Natural only good match until 1960 Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic Generally a good match Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity