1. Thinking Critically with Psychological Science Chapter 1 1

2. Impression of Psychology With hopes of satisfying curiosity, many people listen to television counselors and psychics to learn about others and themselves. 2 Dr. Phil McGraw http://www.photovault.com Psychic (Ball gazing)

3. The Need for Psychological Science Intuition & Common Sense 3 Many people believe that intuition and common sense are enough to bring forth answers regarding human nature. Intuition and common sense may aid queries, but they are not free of error. May the force be with YOU!!! http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:v0nKAWAk20nPJM:http://evolucionfreudiana.files.wordpress.com/2008/07/obi-wan-kenobi-luke-skywalker.jpg http://www.slimdataonline.com/gallery/gutfeel.png

4. Limits of Intuition Personal interviewers may rely too much on their “gut feelings” when meeting with job applicants. 4 http://vexedoff.com/__oneclick_uploads/2010/01/jobinterview.jpg

5. Errors of Common Sense 5 In the 1800's there was a widespread belief that bloodletting cured sickness. If you don’t wear your hat and gloves outside in the Winter you will catch a cold. http://thedevilsdoor.files.wordpress.com/2010/02/leeches.jpg http://www.natural-healing- cures.com/images/cold.jpg

6. Hindsight Bias Hindsight Bias is the “I-knew-it-all-along” phenomenon. After learning the outcome of an event, many people believe they could have predicted that very outcome. 6 mercercognitivepsychology.pbworks.com

7. Hindsight Bias I knew Lebron James was going to the Miami Heat. (Then why did I lose $5.00 because I picked Chicago!!) Of course Google was going to increase to $500 a share. (And why didn’t I buy it at $100 a share???? Duh!!!!) 7 http://assets.nydailynews.com/img/2010/07/10/alg_lebron_heat.jpg http://www.stanford.edu/group/SBSE/cgi- bin/home/images/stories / sbse_photos/sponsors_2008/1_googl e_logo.jpg

8. Of Course I Knew Where This Was Going!!!!! 8

9. Overconfidence Sometimes we think we know more than we actually know. 9 Anagram BARGEGRABE ENTRYETYRN WATERWREAT How long do you think it would take to unscramble these anagrams? People said it would take about 10 seconds, yet on average they took about 3 minutes (Goranson, 1978).

10. Anagrams - People Pig Slicers Needy Chick Enjoy Harm Fine in torn jeans 10 http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q =tbn:E7ZSlXjbKl4SpM:http://ro okery2.viary.com / storagev12/ 809500/809771_b5e8_625x10 00.jpg http://cdn.picapp.com/ftp/Images/e/9/4/a/Jennifer _Aniston_Is_bc95.jpg http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:CrL9V0P u5wxSBM:http://i675.photobucket.com/albu ms/vv113/sukkran/old%2520age/54- ResidentoftheoldagehomeinPashupa.jpg barryschuler.posterous.com

11. Anagrams - People Spice Girls Dick Cheney John Mayer Jennifer Aniston 11

12. The Scientific Attitude 12 The scientific attitude is composed of curiosity (passion for exploration), skepticism (doubting and questioning) and humility (ability to accept responsibility when wrong). How can we differentiate between uniformed opinions and examined conclusions? Show me the evidence !!!! http://api.ning.com/files/FBp7U6d3dLdVxYc8MVPDESUtO4V56mP-7ARAsLFMIF4A6GJthNPezQYB- hryCYHDN7HI3ZToNn0LQNneeEYtq8RUHsNmemAB/gator.jpg

13. Critical Thinking Critical thinking does not accept arguments and conclusions blindly. It examines assumptions, discerns hidden values, evaluates evidence and assesses conclusions. “A skeptic is one who is willing to question any truth claim, asking for clarity in definition, consistency in logic, and adequacy of evidence.” Paul Kurtz 13 The Amazing Randi

14. Scientific Method Psychologists, like all scientists, use the scientific method to construct theories that organize, summarize and simplify observations. 14 A Theory is an explanation that integrates principles and organizes and predicts behavior or events. For example, low self-esteem contributes to depression. A Hypothesis is a testable prediction, often prompted by a theory, to enable us to accept, reject or revise the theory. People with low self-esteem are apt to feel more depressed. Application: Will improving people’s self-esteem reduce their depression?

15. Scientific Method Operational Definition – a statement of the procedures used to define research variables. If you are doing an experiment on altruism where you pretend to trip down some stairs to see if people "help" you. The word help needs to be operationally defined. It could be only when people help you up, or it could be if people just offer to help and ask if you are OK. Either one of these is an operational definition. 15

16. Research Observations Research would require us to administer tests of self-esteem and depression. Individuals who score low on a self-esteem test and high on a depression test would confirm our hypothesis. 16

17. Thinking Critically … Starting point in and science is: Description  The Case Study  The Survey  Naturalistic Observation 17

18. Description Case Study 18 A technique in which one person is studied in depth to reveal underlying behavioral principles. Is language uniquely human? The primary program of The Gorilla Foundation/Koko.org involves teaching American Sign Language to two lowland gorillas. During the course of the study, Koko has advanced further with language than any other non- human. Koko has a working vocabulary of over 1000 signs. Koko understands approximately 2,000 words of spoken English.

19. Case Study A clinical study is a form of case study in which the therapist investigates the problems associated with a client. 19 http://behavioralhealth.typepad.com Clinical Study http://www.truetalkblog.com/truetalk/images/2007/06/06/tony_and_melfi.jpg

20. Survey A technique for ascertaining the self- reported attitudes, opinions or behaviors of people usually done by questioning a representative, random sample of people. 20 http://www.lynnefeatherstone.org

21. Survey Wording can change the results of a survey. A new CBS News/New York Times poll shows how the wording of a survey question dramatically influences the result. The poll finds 59% of Americans say they now support allowing "homosexuals" to serve in the U.S. military. But when the question is changed to whether Americans support "gay men and lesbians" serving in the military, 70% of Americans say they support that. There's a further difference when the question specifies that they "openly" serve. In this case, just 44% favor allowing "homosexuals" to openly serve in the military while 58% favor allowing "gay men and lesbians" to serve openly.CBS News/New York Times poll http://sysurvey.com/tips/wording.htm21 Wording Effect

22. Survey If each member of a population has an equal chance of inclusion into a sample, it is called a random sample (unbiased). If the survey sample is biased, its results are not valid. 22 Random Sampling The fastest way to know about the marble color ratio is to blindly transfer a few into a smaller jar and count them.

23. Survey A tendency to overestimate the extent to which others share our beliefs and behaviors. 23 False Consensus Effect In your view, is being gay or lesbian – (something a person is born with or due to factors such as upbringing and environment?) How many people in class share your view? What percentage of the American population shares your view?

24. False Consensus Effect 24 http://www.gallup.com/poll/135764/americans-acceptance-gay-relations-crosses-threshold.aspx

25. Naturalistic Observation Observing and recording the behavior of animals in the wild and recording self-seating patterns in a multiracial school lunch room constitute naturalistic observation. 25 http://www.ncwildlife.org/WINC/photo_competition/2008/images/ AnimalBehavior2.jpg http://us.123rf.com/400wm/400/400/stockbroker/stockbroker0806/sto ckbroker080604146/3204094.jpg

26. Naturalistic Observation Longitudinal Study – one individual or group is observed, tested or surveyed for an extended period of time Cross- Sectional Study – a representative cross-section of the population is observed, tested or surveyed at one specific time 26 cfr.nichd.nih.govemj.bmj.com

27. Descriptive Methods 27 Case studies, surveys, and naturalistic observation describe behaviors. (Page 30 in the text describes the advantages and disadvantages of each of these descriptions.) Summary

28. The Headless Professor Research Methods 28

29. Thinking Critically … Correlation  Correlation and Causation  Illusory Correlation  Perceiving Order in Random Events 29

30. Correlation Correlation Coefficient is a statistical measure of the relationship between two variables. 30 When one trait or behavior accompanies another, we say the two correlate. Correlation coefficient Indicates direction of relationship (positive or negative) Indicates strength of relationship (0.00 to 1.00) r = 0.37 +

31. Scatterplots 31 Perfect positive correlation (+1.00) Scatterplot is a graph comprised of points that are generated by values of two variables. The slope of the points depicts the direction, while the amount of scatter depicts the strength of the relationship. A positive slope means that two sets of scores tend to rise and fall together. (How does this relate to Econ!!!! Ugh!!!)

32. Scatterplots 32 No relationship (0.00) Perfect negative correlation (-1.00) The Scatterplot on the left shows a negative correlation, while the one on the right shows no relationship between the two variables. A negative correlation has nothing to do with its strength or weakness; a negative correlation means that two things relate inversely. (One set of scores goes up the other goes down) (Econ connection!!!)

33. Cigarette Smoking and Lung Cancer 33 Government statisticians in England conducted a study of the relationship between smoking and lung cancer. The data concern 25 occupational groups and are condensed from data on thousands of individual men. The explanatory variable is the number of cigarettes smoked per day by men in each occupation relative to the number smoked by all men of the same age. This smoking ratio is 100 if men in an occupation are exactly average in their smoking, it is below 100 if they smoke less than average, and above 100 if they smoke more than average. The response variable is the standardized mortality ratio for deaths from lung cancer. It is also measured relative to the entire population of men of the same ages as those studied, and is greater or less than 100 when there are more or fewer deaths from lung cancer than would be expected based on the experience of all English men. http://lib.stat.cmu.edu/DASL/Stories/SmokingandCancer.html

34. Cigarette Smoking and Lung Cancer 34 A scatterplot of the data shows a moderately strong linear association, with a correlation coefficient of 0.716. Residuals from a regression of mortality on smoking are randomly scattered with no outliers or influential observations. Scatterplot of mortality vs. smoking, with regression line

35. Correlation and Causation 35 or Correlation indicates the possibility of a cause- effect relationship but IT DOES NOT PROVE CAUSATION! !!!!

36. Illusory Correlation The perception of a relationship where no relationship actually exists. Do Vaccines Cause Autism? 36

37. Order in Random Events Given random data, we look for order and meaningful patterns to try and make sense of our world.. 37 Your chances of being dealt either of these hands is precisely the same: 1 in 2,598,960.

38. Order in Random Events Given large numbers of random outcomes, a few are likely to express order. 38 Angelo and Maria Gallina won two California lottery games on the same day. Jerry Telfer/ San Francisco Chronicle An event that happens to but one in 1 billion people every day occurs about six times a day, 200 times a year.