Presentation on theme: "1. With hopes of satisfying curiosity, many people listen to television counselors and psychics to learn about others and themselves. 2 Dr. Phil McGraw."— Presentation transcript:
With hopes of satisfying curiosity, many people listen to television counselors and psychics to learn about others and themselves. 2 Dr. Phil McGraw http://www.photovault.com Psychic (Ball gazing)
Intuition & Common Sense 3 Many people believe that intuition and common sense are enough to bring forth answers regarding human nature. Intuition and common sense may aid queries, but they are not free of error. May the force be with YOU!!! http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:v0nKAWAk20nPJM:http://evolucionfreudiana.files.wordpress.com/2008/07/obi-wan-kenobi-luke-skywalker.jpg http://www.slimdataonline.com/gallery/gutfeel.png
Personal interviewers may rely too much on their “gut feelings” when meeting with job applicants. 4 http://vexedoff.com/__oneclick_uploads/2010/01/jobinterview.jpg
5 In the 1800's there was a widespread belief that bloodletting cured sickness. If you don’t wear your hat and gloves outside in the Winter you will catch a cold. http://thedevilsdoor.files.wordpress.com/2010/02/leeches.jpg http://www.natural-healing- cures.com/images/cold.jpg
Hindsight Bias is the “I-knew-it-all-along” phenomenon. After learning the outcome of an event, many people believe they could have predicted that very outcome. 6
I knew Lebron James was going to the Miami Heat. (Then why did I lose $5.00 because I picked Chicago!!) Of course Google was going to increase to $500 a share. (And why didn’t I buy it at $100 a share???? Duh!!!!) 7 http://assets.nydailynews.com/img/2010/07/10/alg_lebron_heat.jpg http://www.stanford.edu/group/SBSE/cgi- bin/home/images/stories / sbse_photos/sponsors_2008/1_googl e_logo.jpg
Sometimes we think we know more than we actually know. 8 Anagram BARGEGRABE ENTRYETYRN WATERWREAT How long do you think it would take to unscramble these anagrams? People said it would take about 10 seconds, yet on average they took about 3 minutes (Goranson, 1978).
Pig Slices Needy Chick Enjoy Harm Fine in torn jeans 9 http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q =tbn:E7ZSlXjbKl4SpM:http://ro okery2.viary.com / storagev12/ 809500/809771_b5e8_625x10 00.jpg http://cdn.picapp.com/ftp/Images/e/9/4/a/Jennifer _Aniston_Is_bc95.jpg http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:CrL9V0P u5wxSBM:http://i675.photobucket.com/albu ms/vv113/sukkran/old%2520age/54- ResidentoftheoldagehomeinPashupa.jpg barryschuler.posterous.com
Spice Girls Dick Cheney John Mayer Jennifer Aniston 10
11 The scientific attitude is composed of curiosity (passion for exploration), skepticism (doubting and questioning) and humility (ability to accept responsibility when wrong). How can we differentiate between uniformed opinions and examined conclusions? Show me the evidence !!!! http://api.ning.com/files/FBp7U6d3dLdVxYc8MVPDESUtO4V56mP-7ARAsLFMIF4A6GJthNPezQYB- hryCYHDN7HI3ZToNn0LQNneeEYtq8RUHsNmemAB/gator.jpg
Critical thinking does not accept arguments and conclusions blindly. It examines assumptions, discerns hidden values, evaluates evidence and assesses conclusions. “A skeptic is one who is willing to question any truth claim, asking for clarity in definition, consistency in logic, and adequacy of evidence.” Paul Kurtz 12 The Amazing Randi
Psychologists, like all scientists, use the scientific method to construct theories that organize, summarize and simplify observations. 13 A Theory is an explanation that integrates principles and organizes and predicts behavior or events. For example, low self-esteem contributes to depression. A Hypothesis is a testable prediction, often prompted by a theory, to enable us to accept, reject or revise the theory. People with low self-esteem are apt to feel more depressed. Application: Will improving people’s self-esteem reduce their depression?
Research would require us to administer tests of self- esteem and depression. Individuals who score low on a self-esteem test and high on a depression test would confirm our hypothesis. 14
Starting point in and science is: Description The Case Study The Survey Naturalistic Observation 15
Case Study 16 A technique in which one person is studied in depth to reveal underlying behavioral principles. Is language uniquely human? The primary program of The Gorilla Foundation/Koko.org involves teaching American Sign Language to two lowland gorillas. During the course of the study, Koko has advanced further with language than any other non- human. Koko has a working vocabulary of over 1000 signs. Koko understands approximately 2,000 words of spoken English.
A clinical study is a form of case study in which the therapist investigates the problems associated with a client. 17 http://behavioralhealth.typepad.com Clinical Study http://www.truetalkblog.com/truetalk/images/2007/06/06/tony_and_melfi.jpg
A technique for ascertaining the self- reported attitudes, opinions or behaviors of people usually done by questioning a representative, random sample of people. 18 http://www.lynnefeatherstone.org
Wording can change the results of a survey. Agree* %Disagree* %DK % Version 1 "Most people with AIDS only have themselves to blame for having the disease" 38 54 8 Version 2 "Most people with AIDS are not to blame for having the disease” 33 44 23 Versions 1 & 2 "People who have AIDS get much less sympathy from society than they ought to get” 62 20 18 http://sysurvey.com/tips/wording.htm19 Wording Effect
If each member of a population has an equal chance of inclusion into a sample, it is called a random sample (unbiased). If the survey sample is biased, its results are not valid. 20 Random Sampling The fastest way to know about the marble color ratio is to blindly transfer a few into a smaller jar and count them.
A tendency to overestimate the extent to which others share our beliefs and behaviors. 21 False Consensus Effect In your view, is being gay or lesbian – (something a person is born with or due to factors such as upbringing and environment?) How many people in class share your view? What percentage of the American population shares your view?
Observing and recording the behavior of animals in the wild and recording self-seating patterns in a multiracial school lunch room constitute naturalistic observation. 23 http://www.ncwildlife.org/WINC/photo_competition/2008/images/ AnimalBehavior2.jpg http://us.123rf.com/400wm/400/400/stockbroker/stockbroker0806/sto ckbroker080604146/3204094.jpg
24 Case studies, surveys, and naturalistic observation describe behaviors. (Page 30 in the text describes the advantages and disadvantages of each of these descriptions.) Summary
Correlation Correlation and Causation Illusory Correlation Perceiving Order in Random Events 26
Correlation Coefficient is a statistical measure of the relationship between two variables. 27 When one trait or behavior accompanies another, we say the two correlate. Correlation coefficient Indicates direction of relationship (positive or negative) Indicates strength of relationship (0.00 to 1.00) r = 0.37 +
28 Perfect positive correlation (+1.00) Scatterplot is a graph comprised of points that are generated by values of two variables. The slope of the points depicts the direction, while the amount of scatter depicts the strength of the relationship. A positive slope means that two sets of scores tend to rise and fall together. (How does this relate to Econ!!!! Ugh!!!)
29 No relationship (0.00) Perfect negative correlation (-1.00) The Scatterplot on the left shows a negative correlation, while the one on the right shows no relationship between the two variables. A negative correlation has nothing to do with its strength or weakness; a negative correlation means that two things relate inversely. (One set of scores goes up the other goes down) (Econ connection!!!)
30 Government statisticians in England conducted a study of the relationship between smoking and lung cancer. The data concern 25 occupational groups and are condensed from data on thousands of individual men. The explanatory variable is the number of cigarettes smoked per day by men in each occupation relative to the number smoked by all men of the same age. This smoking ratio is 100 if men in an occupation are exactly average in their smoking, it is below 100 if they smoke less than average, and above 100 if they smoke more than average. The response variable is the standardized mortality ratio for deaths from lung cancer. It is also measured relative to the entire population of men of the same ages as those studied, and is greater or less than 100 when there are more or fewer deaths from lung cancer than would be expected based on the experience of all English men. http://lib.stat.cmu.edu/DASL/Stories/SmokingandCancer.html
31 A scatterplot of the data shows a moderately strong linear association, with a correlation coefficient of 0.716. Residuals from a regression of mortality on smoking are randomly scattered with no outliers or influential observations. Scatterplot of mortality vs. smoking, with regression line
32 or Correlation indicates the possibility of a cause-effect relationship but IT DOES NOT PROVE CAUSATION!! !!!
The perception of a relationship where no relationship actually exists. Do Vaccines Cause Autism? 33
Given random data, we look for order and meaningful patterns to try and make sense of our world.. 34 Your chances of being dealt either of these hands is precisely the same: 1 in 2,598,960.
Given large numbers of random outcomes, a few are likely to express order. 35 Angelo and Maria Gallina won two California lottery games on the same day. Jerry Telfer/ San Francisco Chronicle An event that happens to but one in 1 billion people every day occurs about six times a day, 200 times a year.
Experimentation Exploring Cause and Effect Evaluating Therapies Independent and Dependent Variables 36
Like other sciences, experimentation is the backbone of psychology research. Experiments isolate causes and their effects. 37 Exploring Cause and Effect http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_qUFDMUpk9jE/SamaufWnPRI/AAAA AAAAP1c/AzyqEfgYdPA/s400/bizarro-animal- experimentation.jpg
Many factors influence our behavior. Experiments (1) manipulate factors that interest us, while other factors are kept under (2) control. Effects generated by manipulated factors isolate cause and effect relationships. 38 Cause and effect relationship??? http://www.702communications.com/~ahill/Cause%20and%20effect%20perhaps.jpg
An Independent Variable is a factor manipulated by the experimenter. The effect of the independent variable is the focus of the study. ( An independent variable is the presumed cause; …..) or (What I change; …) A Dependent Variable is a factor that may change in response to an independent variable. In psychology, it is usually a behavior or a mental process. (… the dependent variable is the presumed effect.) (…what I observe.) 39
Memory rule: The dependent depends on the independent. You always hope to change the dependent by altering the independent. 40
The following is a hypothesis for a study. “There will be a statistically significant difference in graduation rates of at-risk high-school seniors who participate in an intensive study program as opposed to at-risk high-school seniors who do not participate in the intensive study program.” (LaFountain & Bartos, 2002, p. 57) IV: Participation in intensive study program. DV: Graduation rates. 41 http://www.uncp.edu/home/collierw/ivdv.htm
Of 100 individuals with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), 50 receive 8 weeks of an experimental drug for OCD, while 50 are placed on a waiting list for 8 weeks. At the end of the 8 weeks, all 100 individuals are given psychological tests to assess their level of OCD. What is the : Independent Variable Dependent Variable? Experimental Condition? Control Condition? 42 http://answers.yahoo. com/question/index?q id=20080127143317 AAIw38P
In evaluating drug therapies, patients and experimenter’s assistants should remain unaware of which patients had the real treatment and which patients had the placebo treatment. 43 Double-blind Procedure Blind Procedure The participants are uniformed about what treatment, if any, they are receiving. (treatment v placebo)
Assigning participants to experimental (Breast- fed) and control (formula-fed) conditions by random assignment minimizes pre-existing differences between the two groups. 44 Random Assignment
46 Below is a comparison of different research methods. IMPORTANT!!!!!!!
47 Statistical procedures analyze and interpret data allowing us to see what the unaided eye misses. Composition of ethnicity in urban locales
48 A meaningful description of data is important in research. Misrepresentation may lead to incorrect conclusions.
Mode: The most frequently occurring score in a distribution. Mean: The arithmetic average of scores in a distribution obtained by adding the scores and then dividing by the number of scores that were added together. Median: The middle score in a rank-ordered distribution. 49
$20,000 $25,000 $35,000 $200,000 What is the mode? What is the median? What is the mean? In this instance, why is the mean not the best estimate of what a salesperson would earn? 51
Range: The difference between the highest and lowest scores in a distribution. Standard Deviation: A computed measure of how much scores vary around the mean. 52
Variability refers to how much the scores in a data set vary from each other and the mean. The standard deviation is an index of the amount of variability in a data set. When variability is great, the standard of deviation will be relatively low. When variability is low the standard of deviation will be smaller. Estimates of variability play a crucial role in deciding whether the results of a study support a researchers hypotheses. 53
Statistical Reasoning Describing Data Making Inferences 55
A statistical by experimental manipulation or by chance. statement of how frequently an obtained result occurred 56 When is an Observed Difference Reliable? 1.Representative samples are better than biased samples. 2.Less variable observations are more reliable than more variable ones. 3.More cases are better than fewer cases.
When sample averages are reliable and the difference between them is relatively large, we say the difference has statistical significance. For psychologists this difference is measured through alpha level set at 5 percent. 57 When is a Difference Significant?