Presentation on theme: "2006-based Household Projections, In England Allan Cox HMPA, CLG Presentation to Popgroup 14 th September 2009."— Presentation transcript:
2006-based Household Projections, In England Allan Cox HMPA, CLG Presentation to Popgroup 14 th September 2009
Overview 1. Why we produce the projections 2. How the projections are updated 3. Headline figures 4. Comparisons with previous projections 5. What Next?
1. Why we produce the projections Provide long term view on number of households given projected population and previous demographic trends. Important part of evidence base for assessment & planning of future housing requirements PPS3 requires RSSs to have regard to current and future demographic trends and profiles, including the household projections Also used by CLG, OGDs, NHPAU, RPBs, LAs, etc
2. How the projections are updated Method unchanged from previous projections ONS Population Projections Population by age and gender: Assumptions on fertility (1.85), longevity (83.0 males), net migration (171,500) Cohort method Marital / cohabitation status projections CLG Household Projections Main inputs Home population Institutional population Household formation rates (household representative rates) Multiply population projection by household representative rate
3. Headline figures – by type Households in England projected to grow from 21.5 million in 2006 to 27.8 million in 2031, an increase of 6.3 million or 252,100 per year. Nearly two-thirds of increase is in one person households (163,100 per year).
3. Headline figures – by household size By 2031, 18 per cent of the total population in England is projected to live alone compared with 13 per cent in 2006 decrease in average household size from 2.32 persons per household in 2006 to 2.13 persons per household in 2031.
3. Headline figures – by age of head of household Just over half of the increase in households is in those headed by someone aged 65 or over. By 2031, a third of households will be headed by those aged 65 or over compared with a quarter in 2006
3. Headline figures - Drivers of household growth Population growth = 74% of household growth No change in the level or age structure of population -> household growth of 35,500 per year year. Household formation = 18% household growth * Scenarios whilst all other factors held constant Average annual change* % contribution Population level 18774% Age structure 3012% Marital status 156% HRR 4418% Remainder- 24-9% Total 252
Impact of variant population projections Low variantPrincipalHigh variant Fertility (average number of children per woman)1.651.852.05 Mortality (life expectancy at birth, 2031) Males81.083.084.9 Females85.186.487.6 Net migration from 2014/15111,500171,500231,500 ONS variant population projections show effect of assumptions about fertility, life expectancy and net migration on future levels of the population. These give a broad indication of the sensitivity of the household projections to the demographic assumptions.
Variant Projections (1) Fertility Little change in households under fertility variants (25 year projection period) -
Impact of variant population projections (2) Life Expectancy high/low life expectancy variants -> difference of +/- 12,000 households per year around principal projection. Mainly concentrated in married couple and one person households, reflecting the age structure of these household types
Impact of variant population projections (3) Migration The migration variants change the number of households formed by 2031 by +/- 3%, range from 27.1m to 28.6m around principal of 27.8m. Equates to 31-33 thousand per year. Low migration scenario leads to 221,000 average annual increase.
Variant projections (3) Migration Zero net migration -> suggests migration accounts for two-fifths of growth in households to 2031. Household projections under migration variants
3. Headline figures – by region South East has largest absolute increase in households of 39,100 per year, or 28 per cent of the 2006 level. The North East shows the smallest growth in households at 8,300 per year, or 19 per cent of the 2006 level.
3. Headline figures – by region Some key results by region Average annual change % increase from one person Average hh size (2031) % over 65 in 2031 North East8.3782.0635 North West27.4742.0932 Yorkshire & The Humber30.0542.1231 East Midlands27.6552.1233 West Midlands21.0712.1734 East33.6602.1434 London33.5682.1822 South East39.1702.1635 South West31.6622.0736 England252.1652.1332
Yorkshire and The Humber and East Midlands see largest absolute upwards revisions, London sees smallest – reflects regional distribution of population Thousands06 based projection04 based projection Average annual change 2006 - 2026 Difference % change North East962.540% North West28262.711% Yorkshire & the Humber31237.331% East Midlands28226.128% West Midlands22183.117% East34304.515% London34331.44% South East40364.011% South West32293.412% England2582233516%
5. What Next? 19 Dec 2008 Options for the Future of the Household Projections Model: A Final Report 11 Mar 2009 2006-Based Household Estimates and Projections (existing methodology) Summer 2009 Seeking users views on household typology (CLG Questionnaire) ______________________________________________________________ December 2009 Testing methodological changes to the household projection model Spring 2010 2008-Based Sub National Population Projections 2011 2008-Based Household Estimates and Projections (alternative methodology?)
5. What next? Results of the CLG Household Typology Questionnaire
5. What next? - Results of the CLG Household Typology Questionnaire: (41 responses) - To what extent do the household types in Englands household projections currently meet your requirements? Not at all 1 A Bit 2 Partly15 Mainly19 Fully 4 % Mainly or Fully56% Despite this, nearly three quarters (73%) said they wanted to see a change to the household typology.
5. What next? - Typology in England - Results of the CLG Household Typology Questionnaire: - 41% of respondents felt that marital status was very or most important Other factors: 51% for number of children in household 53% number of concealed households 56% number of adults in household 68% total size of household was very or most important
5. What next? - Typology in Northern Ireland -Household Types in Northern Ireland -Size categories of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5+ persons -Household Types: - Single Person - Two adults without children - Other households without children - Lone adult with children - Other households with children - 28% of respondents felt that the household typology used in Northern Ireland would meet their requirements.
5. What next? - Typology in Scotland -Household Types in Scotland - 1 Person- 1 adult male - 1 adult female - 2 Persons- 2 adults - 1 adult, 1 child - 3+ Persons- 1 adult, 2+ children - 2+ adults, 1+ children - 3+ adults - 33% of respondents felt that the household typology used in Scotland would meet their requirements.
5. What next? - Typology in Wales -Household Types in Wales - Single person households: - 1 person -Other households without children - 2 person (no children) - 3 person (no children) - 4 person (no children) - 5+ person (no children) Lone adult household with children - 2 person (1 adult + 1 child) - 3 person (1 adult + 2 children)
5. What next? - Typology in Wales -(Wales, continued) -Lone adult household with children - 4 person (1 adult + 3 child) - 5+ person (1 adult & 4+ children) Other households with children - 3 person (2 adult + 1 child) - 4 person (2+ adults & 1+ child) - 5+ person (2+ adults & 1+ child) - 58% of respondents felt that the household typology used in Wales would meet their requirements.
5. What next? -Testing methodological changes to the household projection model - The review will test 4 alternative methodologies against the 2006-based household projections. - The review will offer recommendations for the methodology used in updating the 2008-based household projections.
5. Methodology Review Option 1 – simplifying the projections - A time series / cohort model based on standard five year age bands only. - No disaggregation by household type, gender or marital status. - Cohort modelling only applied at the 40-44 age band and above.
5. Methodology Review Option 2 – amending LFS weights - Amend the weight given to the LFS data against the Census data. - More weight given to the LFS data.
5. Methodology Review Option 3 – amending household types - Commission new census tables to revise the household type breakdown. - Include the household type and the number of children in the household.
5. Methodology Review Option 4 – controlling - Updating the projections by applying earlier versions of the household representative rates to the LA population projections - Updating the projections by applying new household representative rates to the old LA population projections - To calculate the projections at LA level, without constraining to national level
5. Methodology Review Options for the Future of the Household Projections Model: A Final Report - will test the accuracy of each recommendation against the 2006- based projections - will offer a recommendation for each option - results published in December 2009