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DCLG Household Projections Bob Garland Housing Markets and Planning Analysis Division Bob Garland Housing Markets and Planning Analysis Division.

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Presentation on theme: "DCLG Household Projections Bob Garland Housing Markets and Planning Analysis Division Bob Garland Housing Markets and Planning Analysis Division."— Presentation transcript:

1 DCLG Household Projections Bob Garland Housing Markets and Planning Analysis Division Bob Garland Housing Markets and Planning Analysis Division

2 Comparison of the 1996 and 2003 based projections EnglandAverage annual growth Av annual growth 96 Av annual growth 03 Increase in rate of growth Private Hhold Pop134,500218,70063% Households152,600209,10037% One person hholds108,100149,50038%

3 Increased household growth results from higher population projections but households increasing faster than population due falling average household size and more one person households and increased longevity.

4 Regional Growth

5 Household Growth by Region (2003 based) Table A: Household projections Numbers of households (000)Average annual change Percentage increase ~ 2026 North East1,0881,211511% North West2,8743, % Yorkshire & the Humber2,1042, % East Midlands1,7822, % West Midlands2,1932, % East2,2862, % London3,0933, % South East3,3484, % South West2,1372, % England20,90425, %

6 Components of Change Components of Household GrowthEngland 2003 Based Components of change (%): adult population level58 age distribution20 marital status distribution-3 household membership rates20 remainder (cross products)6

7 Drivers of Growth

8 Household Projections 23% growth in household numbers. 209 additional households per year. 31% of household growth is due to international migration. One person households increasing fastest. 23% growth in household numbers. 209 additional households per year. 31% of household growth is due to international migration. One person households increasing fastest.

9 Regional Perspective Married couple households are not declining as quickly in the East Midlands, East or South West. All regions are experiencing a similar pattern of growth. Married couple households are not declining as quickly in the East Midlands, East or South West. All regions are experiencing a similar pattern of growth.

10 One person households

11 Migration Slightly more than half the population growth in England is directly due to international migration. In the long run migration becomes an increasingly important aspect of population growth as the number of births is projected to fall. Slightly more than half the population growth in England is directly due to international migration. In the long run migration becomes an increasingly important aspect of population growth as the number of births is projected to fall. Based on annual net growth from natural increase and net international migration; excludes long term natural increase associated with the immigrant population

12 Keep Migration in Perspective In England, net migration accounts for 65,000 of the 209,000 (31%) annual average household growth (2003 based) despite accounting for 54 per cent of population growth.

13 Migration and the Regions

14 Recent house building and the household projections

15 Input Data Sources

16 Increasing Population The latest population projection from the ONS is higher than the one used to produce based the household projections based household projections will reflect this increased growth. In both projections population growth is due to natural change and migration in roughly equal parts. The latest population projection from the ONS is higher than the one used to produce based the household projections based household projections will reflect this increased growth. In both projections population growth is due to natural change and migration in roughly equal parts.


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