1. Multinational Force Staff Estimates
COALITION/COMBINED TASK FORCE TRAINING
Multinational Force Staff Estimates

2. Purpose
The purpose of this class is to discuss formulating and using the staff estimate as part of the Crisis Action Planning (CAP) / Commander’s Estimate military course of action (COA) development process.
THE PURPOSE OF THIS CLASS TO FAMILIARIZE THE STUDENT WITH THE STAFF ESTIMATE PROCESS.
CRITICAL LEARNING POINT: THE STAFF ESTIMATE PROCESS IS A CONTINUALLY REFINED REPETATIVE PROCESS AND PROVIDES THE COMMANDER WITH THE BEST ESTIMATES OF A PLAN OR COA PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS FROM THE STAFF ELEMENTS PERSPECTIVE.

3. Staff Estimate Objectives Staff Estimate Process Staff Estimate Steps
Agenda
Definition
Staff Estimate Objectives
Staff Estimate Process
Staff Estimate Steps
Staff Estimate Submission
Staff Estimate Format
This is what we will be covering during this lesson.

4. STANDING OPERATING PROCEDURES
References
MULTINATIONAL FORCE
STANDING OPERATING PROCEDURES
(MNF SOP)
FIRST DRAFT 1.2
LAST UPDATE: 10 July 03
MNF SOP First Draft
JP 3-0 Doctrine for Joint Operations
JP JTF Planning Guidance & Procedures

5. Definition
Staff Estimate: Assessments of courses of action by the various staff elements of a command that serve as the foundation of the commander’s estimate.

6. Staff Estimate Objectives
Ensures COAs developed are complete from staff element’s perspective
Refines COAs prior to analysis and provides staff input for COA comparison and selection
Provides analysis, recommendations and conclusion of staff sections on applicable COAs
Serves as the basis for Commander’s Estimate
Create concepts and products for CTF order
THE STAFF ESTIMATE PROVIDES DETAILED ANALYSIS OF FRIENDLY AND THREAT CAPABILITIES, MISSIONS, COAs AND PLANS FROM A STAFF ELEMENT’S PERSPECTIVE. IT PROVIDES THE COMMANDER WITH INPUT ON KEY INFORMATION THAT ALLOWS SELECTION OF MOST APPROPRIATE COAs FOR GIVEN SITUATIONS, IDENTIFIES SHORTFALLS AND ISSUES SO THE COMMANDER CAN ASSESS AREAS THAT MAY REQUIRE ACCEPTING RISK.
THE STAFF ESTIMATE SERVES AS THE BASIS FOR THE COMMANDER’S RECOMMENDATION OF A COA TO HHQ AND FORMS THE BASIS FOR THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE TO HHQ

7. Crisis Action Planning Process
Situation
Development II
Crisis
Assessment
III
Course of
Action
Development IV
Course of
Action
Selection V
Execution
Planning
OPORD VI
Execution
Deployment
Data Base
Warning
Order
Planning
Order
Alert
Order
Execute
Order
AND/OR I
Mission Analysis/
Restated Mission II
Course of Action
Development
The Staff Estimate
CRITICAL LEARNING POINT: STRESS THAT THE STAFF ELEMENTS PROVIDE ESTIMATES THROUGHTOUT PLANNING AND EXECUTION.
THIS SLIDE DEPICTS THE CAP PROCESS AND COA DEVELOPMENT AS PART OF THAT PROCESS. TIME SHOULD BE TAKEN TO EXPLAIN THAT THE STAFF ESTIMATE BEGINS WITH MISSION ANALYSIS AND CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE PLANNING AND EXECUTION OF PLANS. IT IS A MULTI STEP PROCESS THAT CONTINUALLY REFINES THE ESTIMATES TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST INFORMATION AFFECTING THE SUCCESSFUL CONCLUSION OF OPERATIONS. THEY PROVIDE THE COMMANDER WITH STAFF RECOMMENDATIONS ON CURRENT AND FUTURE PLANS SUPPORTABILITY AND PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS.
THIS SLIDE DEPICTS “THE STAFF ESTIMATE” IN WHITE CONNECTED TO STEP 4 (COMPARISON) IT SHOULD BE NOTED THIS IS WHERE A MORE FORMAL ESTIMATE IS GIVEN TO THE COMMANDER TO GIVE STAFF RECOMMENDATIONS FOR HIS USE IN SELECTING THE MOST APPROPRIATE COA.
THE MORE FORMAL STAFF ESTIMATE GIVES RECOMMENDATIONS AMONG THE VARIOUS COAs CONCERNING VALIDITY AND PROVIDES ANALYSIS, RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS ON THE COAs FROM THE FUNCTIONAL STAFF ELEMENT’S PERSPECTIVE. A FORMAT IS PROVIDED LATER IN THE CLASS AND ALSO IDENTIFIES ISSUES AND SHORTFALLS THAT CONCERN THE STAFF ELEMENT WITH ANY PARTICULAR COA
III
Analysis of Opposing
Courses of Action IV
Comparison of Own
Courses of Action V
Commander’s
Decision
Staff Estimates
Commander’s Estimate Process

8. Staff Estimate Process
Staff estimates begin with mission analysis and continue throughout the planning process to ensure the commander has the best information on the supportability of the operation
Staff estimates are a comprehensive review that translate threat/enemy and friendly strengths and weaknesses into capabilities and estimates of supportability
Staff estimates are a repetitive process and are in a constant state of refinement
THE FOLLOWING SLIDES SERVE TO REINFORCE THE PROCESS AND ITS CONSTANT REFINEMENT

9. Staff Estimate Process
Staff estimates ensure COAs have all planning in place prior to COA analysis to facilitate and maximize the benefits of “Wargaming”
Staff estimate focus is on the KEY information that is needed to develop a COA for acceptance or rejection

10. Staff Estimates Step Staff estimate purpose Mission Analysis
COA Development
Gathers information for later use in planning, identifies any obvious problems
Staff elements use functional area expertise to ensure COA is fully fleshed out and has best probability of success from functional perspective
CRITICAL LEARNING POINT: STAFF CONTINUE TO REFINE AND GATHER INFORMATING DURING THE ENTIRE PLANNING PROCESS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EACH COA TO LIKELY SELECTION AND SUCCESS.
DISCUSS THE THOUGHT PROCESS

11. Staff Estimates Step Staff estimate purpose COA Analysis
Staff elements adjust estimates as a result of information gathered in “Wargaming”. Staff elements identify and address any shortfalls. Staff elements gather information on each COA to make recommendations to Commander.
Hidden slide to be developed to demonstrate what the staff elements are doing and as an estimate in each phase of the planning process.

12. Staff Estimates Step Staff estimate purpose COA Comparison/Selection
Staff elements provide an estimate judging validity (suitable, acceptable, feasible, distinct) of each COA, identify shortfalls or issues, and finally, make a recommendation to the CCTF.
Hidden slide to be developed to demonstrate what the staff elements are doing and as an estimate in each phase of the planning process.

13. MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEF
STAFF ESTIMATES
MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEF
MISSION
ANALYSIS
STRATEGIC COMMANDER’S PLANNING DIRECTIVE
THE INITIAL STAFF ESTIMATE DONE DURING MISSION ANALYSIS ANALYZES THE WARNING ORDER AND SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS AND PROVIDES INPUT FOR THE MA BRIEF TO THE COMMANDER .
THE STAFF ELEMENT DERIVES PERTINENET FACTS, REQURIED ASSUMPTIONS, ANALYSES HIGHER MISSION AND INTENT, LIMITATIONS, AND RESOURCE REQUIREMENTS. IT IDENTIFIES CENTERS OF GRAVITY, DECISIVE POINTS AND AREAS OF RISK, FROM THE STAFF ELEMENT PERSPECTIVE FOR USE IN DEVELOPING COAs AND IN THE OVERALL MA BRIEF
MISSION STATEMENT

14. STATEMENTS SKETCHES AND TASK ORGANIZATION STAFF ESTIMATE UPDATES
COA Development
STATEMENTS SKETCHES AND TASK ORGANIZATION
STAFF ESTIMATES
COA
DEVELOPMENT
MISSION AND TASKS
STAFF ESTIMATE UPDATES
COMMANDERS GUIDANCE
WARNING ORDER
THE STAFF ELEMENTS USE THE COMMANDER’S PLANNING GUIDANCE AND MA INFO TO ENSURE COA VALIDITY FROM THEIR FUNCTIONAL PERSPECTIVE IN THEIR COA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS.
THE STAFF ESTIMATES SERVE TO ADJUST COAs TO INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF SUCCESSFUL SELECTION AND EXECUTION.
THE STAFF ESTIMATES DONE AT THIS POINT SERVE AS DETAILED HOMEWORK FOR USE DURING COA ANALYSIS, COMPARISON AND SELECTION.

15. ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES STATEMENTS SKETCHES AND TASK ORGANIZATION
COA Analysis
ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES
STATEMENTS SKETCHES AND TASK ORGANIZATION
COA
ANALYSIS
UPDATED STAFF ESTIMATES
WARGAME RECORD
AFTER COA DEVELOPMENT, UPDATED STAFF ESTIMATES INCLUDE ANY MODIFICATIONS THE STAFF ELEMENTS MAKE AS A RESULT OF HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL COORDINATION DONE DURING COA DEVELOPMENT.
THE STAFF ELEMENTS TRACK COA ANALYSIS TO ENSURE ANY CHANGES THAT RESULT DO NOT CHANGE THE VALIDITY OR SUPPORTABILITY FROM THEIR PERSPECTIVE.
STAFF ESTIMATE UPDATES

16. COA Selection COA SELECTION
STAFF/DEPUTY COMMANDER, CTF RECOMMENDATIONS
COA SELECTION
COMMANDER’S OWN ANALYSIS AND COMPARISON
AFTER COA ANALYSIS THE COAs ARE COMPARED AGAINST AN OBJECTIVE SET OF RULES TO DETERMINE THE COA WHICH PRESENTS THE BEST PROBABILITY OF SUCCESSFULLY ACCOMPLISHING THE MISSION WHILE FULFILLING THE COMMANDER’S GUIDANCE. THE STAFF ELEMENT UPDATE THEIR ESTIMATES AND REFINES THEM INTO A MORE FORMAL FORMAT WHICH ADDRESSES THE 3 MAIN POINTS OF VALIDITY, (Feasible, Acceptable, Suitable), ANY ISSUES OR SHORTFALLS AND FINALLY, GIVES THE STAFF ELEMENT’S RECOMMENDATION ON THE BEST COORDINATION.
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DECION MATRIX DEVELOPED DURING COA COMPARISON, THE STAFF ESTIMATES FORM THE BASIS FOR THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE TO HIS HHQ.
FINAL DECISION
COA MODIFICATIONS
CTF COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE TO THE SUPPORTED STRATEGIC COMMANDER

17. Staff Estimate Submission
C1, C2, C3, C4, C5, C6, C7
Special staff sections
Staff Judge Advocate (SJA)
Information Operations (IO)
Media Support Staff / PAO
Force Protection
Coalition/Combined Logistics Coordination Center (CLCC)
Coalition Coordination Center (CCC)
Other sections as directed
ALL FUNCTIONAL STAFF SECTIONS MAKE STAFF ESTIMATES DURING THE PLANNING PROCESS. SPECIAL STAFF SECTIONS MAY ALSO PREPARE STAFF ESTIMATES AS DIRECTED BY THE COMMANDER FOR SUBMISSION DURING COA SELECTION.

18. Staff Estimate In Support of COA Comparison Format
Mission: Staff Section Mission as a function of the CTF mission
Suitability:
Acceptability:
Feasibility:
Assessment of the Suitability, Acceptability and Feasibility of the respective COAs. States which COA is most Suitable, Acceptable or Feasible from the staff elements’ perspective.
Concerns/Issues: Staff elements state concerns or issues with each COA as applicable.
Shortfalls: The staff section identifies significant shortfalls that may impact accomplishment or success of each COA.
Recommended COA: The staff element recommends a COA based on their perspective with brief reasoning why.
THIS IS AN EXAMPLE OF A STAFF ESTIMATE TURNED IN AS PART OF THE COA SELECTION PROCESS.
THE FOLLOWING ARE DEFINITIONS FOR THE VALIDITY TEST. THE SPECIFIC BULLETS HAVE DEFINITIONS BESIDE THEM.
SUITABILITY: MUST ACCOMPLISH THE MISSION IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE SUPPORTED COMBATANT COMMANDERS GUIDANCE
ACCEPTABILITY: MUST BALANCE COST WITH ADVANTAGE GAINED BY EXECUTION OF A PARTICULAR COA
FEASIBILITY: MUST ACCOMPLISH THE MISSION WITHIN ESTABLISHED TIME, SPACE AND RESOURCE CONSTRAINTS.
THE ISSUES AND SHORTFALLS MAY ADDRESS ANY OF THE ABOVE IF THEY PRESENT AN ISSUE OR ANYTHING AT ALL THAT MAY AFFECT SELECTION AND SUCCESS OF A PARTICULAR COA
THE EXAMPLE ON THE FOLLOWING PAGE MAY ALSO CLARIFY THE STAFF ESTIMATE AND ITS ELEMENTS.

19. EXAMPLE: AIR CELL ESTIMATES
Differences in COA Characteristics
CFACC ashore in COA 1 & 2; afloat in # 2
Either concept supportable
Infrastructure already in place on CVBG
Preponderance of air assets land based

20. EXAMPLE: AIR CELL ESTIMATES
Mission Areas
Air Superiority: 100 sorties/day (s/d)
Air to Ground (CAS, AI): 300 s/d
Strat Lift: 5 s/d
Tac Lift: 32 s/d
ISR: ü
Air Refueling: ü
CSAR: ü
Airborne C2: ü
Enemy Sortie Capability
Estimated 60 per day
(D Day)
Estimated 0 per day
(D+1)

21. EXAMPLE: AIR CELL ESTIMATES
Validity Tests
Suitable ü
Feasible ü
Acceptable ü
Complete ü
Recommendations
Tanker/Bomber/Airlift basing at XX,YY,ZZ
Fighter basing at XX,XX,TT,CC
Force capability ratios:
An overwhelming air advantage!

22. EXAMPLE: MARITIME STAFF ESTIMATES
Mission: COA 1 – Light Footprint
Suitability: Yes. (4.1 of 5)
Feasibility: Yes. (3.9 of 5)
Acceptability: Yes. (4.0 of 5)
Concerns / Issues:
Consider movement of the ISB from XXXX to XXXX to reduce inorganic sealift requirement.
Mines could be an issue.
Anti-ship Missiles will need to be defended against.
Shortfalls:
Small organic lift capability.
Recommended COA:
Smallest Naval (warships + contracted lift) footprint – least exposure to enemy forces
OVERALL ESTIMATE: (4.2 of 5)

23. EXAMPLE: C1 STAFF ESTIMATES COA1
Mission. LIGHT FOOTPRINT
Suitable. Yes. Allows for rapid deployment of personnel.
Feasible. Yes. The required resources to accomplish the mission are readily available.
Acceptable. Yes. However, it is the highest risk of personnel losses due limited forces and offensive capability.
Concerns/Issues: Casualties may be higher due to lack overwhelming force
Shortfalls. Limited FP and ground forces

24. EXAMPLE: C1 STAFF ESTIMATES COA2
Mission. MEDIUM FOOTPRINT
Suitable. Yes. Allows for rapid deployment with more robust force.
Feasible. Yes. The required resources to accomplish the mission are readily available
Acceptable. Yes. More forces available which limits risks to personnel
Concerns/Issues: More personnel increases the requirement for more robust FP and intel resources
Shortfalls. None.

25. EXAMPLE: C1 STAFF ESTIMATES COA3
Mission. HEAVY FOOTPRINT
Suitable. Yes. However, size of force may be more than what is required.
Feasible. Yes. However, it will take longer to deploy all forces to AO.
Acceptable. Yes. More FP available for the increase in personnel
Concerns/Issues: Heaviest drain on personnel requirements.
Shortfalls. None

26. EXAMPLE: C2 STAFF ESTIMATES COA1/2
Suitable - YES
Feasible - YES
Acceptable - YES
Concerns/Issues - WEATHER
TERRAIN
COMM
Shortfalls - CRYPTOLINGUISTS
TROJAN SPIRIT
PHL MIG ANALYSIS TEAM
J2X
HUMAN EXPLOITATION TEAM

27. EXAMPLE: C2 STAFF ESTIMATES COA3
Suitable - YES
Feasible - YES
Acceptable - YES
Concerns/Issues - WEATHER
TERRAIN
COMM
Shortfalls - CRYPTOLINGUISTS
TROJAN SPIRIT
PHL MIG ANALYSIS TEAM
J2X

28. Example C4 Staff Estimate
Mission: Provide transportation and logistics support for HA operation in JOA.
- Facilitate transition of logistics to NGO/IO.
Suitability: COA 1 is most suitable because it best meets commander’s guidance to minimize footprint.
Acceptability: All COAs are equally Acceptable.
Feasibility: COA 1 is most feasible because places less emphasis on CTF logistics assets.
Concerns/issues: The time required to transition to NGO/IO based HA support is not fixed. This may lead to extending limited CTF resources past their maintenance cycle timelines.
Shortfalls: The CTF has only 80% of the anticipated HET support required for any selected COA
Recommended COA: CTF J4 recommends COA 1 based on current and anticipated requirements and capabilities.
Heavy Equip Transport

29. EXAMPLE: C4 STAFF ESTIMATE COA1
Mission: SOF Option – Light Footprint (All SOF forces, USN forces including MEU(SOC), USAF forces and all AFP forces)
Suitability: YES, logistics can support the time line.
Feasibility: YES, resources required are available to accomplish the mission (HSVs, LCUs, Tactical Airlift, LCACs)
Acceptability: YES, minimal logistical losses expected however, will require more time and resources to push supplies forward.
Concerns / Issues: Time for establishment of ISB and forward movement into offensive operations.
Shortfalls: Limited HNS and inland transportation.
Recommended COA: No

30. EXAMPLE: C4 STAFF ESTIMATE COA 2
Mission: Medium Footprint (Expeditionary Option), All forces not to include US Army (Hooaa)
Suitability: YES, logistics can support the time line.
Feasibility: YES, organic resources are sufficient for 30 DOS for US MEB and 3 DOS for RP Forces.
Acceptability: YES, minimal logistical losses expected however, will require more time to source transportation requirements.
Concerns / Issues: Movement and re-supply of RP Forces to and throughout the JOA.
Shortfalls: Limited HNS, inland transportation and lack Level III care.
Recommended COA: No

31. EXAMPLE: C4 STAFF ESTIMATE COA 3
Mission: Heavy Footprint, Utilize all forces listed.
Suitability: YES, logistics can support the time line.
Feasibility: YES, organic resources are sufficient for 30 DOS for US Forces and 3 DOS for RP Forces.
Acceptability: YES, however, it will require extensive HN infrastructure improvements to flow in personnel.
Concerns / Issues: Very time consuming.
Shortfalls: Limited HN APODs, inland transportation and lack Level III care.
Recommended COA: COA 3 – best accomplishes mission

32. EXAMPLE: C5 STAFF ESTIMATE COA 1/2/3
Mission: Conducts the initial planning to Transition to a Peace Keeping Force, or the Host Nation of Camry governmental agencies and armed forces.
Suitability: Yes
Feasibility: Yes
Acceptability: Yes
Concerns / Issues: None
Shortfalls: None
Recommendations: None

33. EXAMPLE : C7 STAFF ESTIMATE COA 1/2/3
Mission. CCATF (or CMOTF)
Evaluates HNS capabilities, conducts CMO, PRC.
Be prepared to conduct HA/DR in post hostility phases
Suitable. Yes
CCATF / CMOTF is doctrinally supportable.
Missions are within scope of CA force Structure
Feasible. Yes
Forces (RC & AC) are available within timeline constraints
Acceptable. Yes
Recommend organic forces T/O with habitually assigned services
Concerns/Issues:
Takes up to 30 days to mobilize and deploy CA units (RC)
Minimal staff & troop augmentation during initial phases
Shortfalls:
Linguist requirements unknown, CCATF/CCMOTF can assume mission
COA 2 & 3 transition period too brief for adequate completion of HA/DR
- addressed in COA 2 with extended CA deployments
Recommended COA: All supportable

34. Summary Definition Staff Estimate Objectives Staff Estimate Process
Staff Estimate Steps
Staff Estimate Submission
Staff Estimate Format
GO BACK OVER THE KEY HIGHLIGHTS FROM PREVIOUS SLIDES AND WHAT THE CLASS COVERED AS A WHOLE.
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE HAVE A WHOLE HOST OF EXPERTS ON STAFF AND WE NEED TO GET THEIR INPUT INTO THE PLAN BY MEANS OF THEIR STAFF ESTIMATES.

35. Questions? COALITION/COMBINED TASK FORCE TRAINING
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36. Multinational Force Staff Estimates
COALITION/COMBINED TASK FORCE TRAINING
Multinational Force Staff Estimates
FOUND IN S:\j3\J37\J371\Academic Briefs\Academic Briefings \Master - JTF