Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Course of Action Analysis Purpose u Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process u Discuss the associated.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "Course of Action Analysis Purpose u Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process u Discuss the associated."— Presentation transcript:

1 Course of Action Analysis Purpose u Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process u Discuss the associated task steps u Identify the products resulting from COA analysis u Provide lessons learned from previous exercises and operations References u JP 3-0, Doctrine for Joint Operations, App B, 10 Sep 01 u JP , Joint Task Force Planning Guidance and Procedures, 13 Jan 1999 u CJCSM , JTF HQ Master Training Guide, 15 Apr 97 Multinational Planning Augmentation Team (MPAT)

2 Crisis Action Planning Process I Mission Analysis I CRISISCRISIS ISituationDevelopmentISituationDevelopment IICrisisAssessmentIICrisisAssessment IV Course of ActionSelectionIV ActionSelection VExecutionPlanningVExecutionPlanning WarningOrderWarningOrderPlanningOrderPlanningOrderAlertOrderAlertOrderExecuteOrderExecuteOrder OPORD&Deployment Data Base OPORD&Deployment VIExecutionVIExecution And/orAnd/or III Course of Action Development II Course of Action Development III Analysis of Courses of Action III Analysis of Courses of Action IV Comparison of Own Courses of Action IV Comparison of Own Courses of Action VCommandersDecisionVCommandersDecision Commanders Estimate Process Key Planning Concepts: – Supported Strategic Commanders (higher headquarters) strategic intent and operational (MNF) focus (MNF) focus – Orientation on the strategic and operational centers of gravity of the threat – Protection of friendly strategic and operational centers of gravity – Phasing of operations

3 Courses of Action Analysis Gaming the COAs Courses of Action Analysis Gaming the COAs The purpose of course of action analysis is to evaluate each proposed friendly COA as though executed against the most probable and most dangerous enemy or threat COA (threats can include starvation, disease, weather and etc. for HA/DR missions). This analysis illustrates what the commander considered the most significant and influential aspects of the situation. The purpose of course of action analysis is to evaluate each proposed friendly COA as though executed against the most probable and most dangerous enemy or threat COA (threats can include starvation, disease, weather and etc. for HA/DR missions). This analysis illustrates what the commander considered the most significant and influential aspects of the situation.

4 u Determine the effectiveness of each friendly COA on the most probable & most dangerous enemy COA or threat situation u Conduct this analysis in an orderly fashion, such as: – By time phasing – Geographic location – Functional event – Consider the potential actions of subordinates two echelons down u Determine the effectiveness of each friendly COA on the most probable & most dangerous enemy COA or threat situation u Conduct this analysis in an orderly fashion, such as: – By time phasing – Geographic location – Functional event – Consider the potential actions of subordinates two echelons down Analysis of COAs: Key Points

5 u Consider crisis termination issues: think through own action, enemy reaction/ threat consequences of our action, and counteraction u Conclude with: – Revalidation of feasibility, acceptability, suitability – Determine additional requirements – Make modifications – List advantages and disadvantages of each COA u Consider crisis termination issues: think through own action, enemy reaction/ threat consequences of our action, and counteraction u Conclude with: – Revalidation of feasibility, acceptability, suitability – Determine additional requirements – Make modifications – List advantages and disadvantages of each COA Analysis of COAs: Key Points (contd)

6 Task Steps Gather the Tools Gather the Tools List Assumptions List Assumptions Critical Events & Decision Points Critical Events & Decision Points Analysis Method Analysis Method Recording Method Recording Method Analyze & Assess Analyze & Assess Risk Assessment Risk Assessment Revalidate Course of Action Analysis

7 Gather the Tools u Friendly COAs u The most probable & most dangerous enemy or threat COAs u Combined operations area reference u Representation of friendly force distribution and probable threats u Representation of environmental/civil conditions u Synchronization Matrix u Action-Reaction/Threat Consequence- Counteraction matrix u Identify, list, and review existing limitations u Friendly COAs u The most probable & most dangerous enemy or threat COAs u Combined operations area reference u Representation of friendly force distribution and probable threats u Representation of environmental/civil conditions u Synchronization Matrix u Action-Reaction/Threat Consequence- Counteraction matrix u Identify, list, and review existing limitations Course of Action Analysis Gather the Tools List Assumptions Critical Events & Decision Points Analysis Method Recording Method Analyze & Assess Risk Assessment Revalidate

8 List Assumptions u List the assumptions made during mission analysis u Validity: – Is the assumption necessary to continue planning? – Will the result change without the assumption? – Logical? – Realistic? u List the assumptions made during mission analysis u Validity: – Is the assumption necessary to continue planning? – Will the result change without the assumption? – Logical? – Realistic? Course of Action Analysis Gather the Tools List Assumptions Critical Events & Decision Points Analysis Method Recording Method Analyze & Assess Risk Assessment Revalidate

9 Example: Planning Assumptions Coalition Task Force (CTF- Bayanihan) u Host country will allow temporary basing of Troop Contributing Nations (TCNs) u Aerial ports of debarkation (APODs) and sea ports of debarkation (SPODs) are operational u TCNs are self-sustaining for first 72 hours u Weather will remain favorable for duration of mission u No other contingencies for CTF/MNF for duration of mission u Host nation will be the MNF lead nation (Philippines) u Host country will allow temporary basing of Troop Contributing Nations (TCNs) u Aerial ports of debarkation (APODs) and sea ports of debarkation (SPODs) are operational u TCNs are self-sustaining for first 72 hours u Weather will remain favorable for duration of mission u No other contingencies for CTF/MNF for duration of mission u Host nation will be the MNF lead nation (Philippines)

10 List Known Critical Events and Decision Points u Critical events are essential tasks that require detailed analysis u Decision points identify decisions the commander must make to ensure timely execution and synchronization u Time available for analysis affects length of the critical events list u Critical events are essential tasks that require detailed analysis u Decision points identify decisions the commander must make to ensure timely execution and synchronization u Time available for analysis affects length of the critical events list Course of Action Analysis Gather the Tools List Assumptions Critical Events & Decision Points Analysis Method Recording Method Analyze & Assess Risk Assessment Revalidate

11 Select Method of Analysis u Computer Assisted – Integrated theater management model – Tactical warfare model – Joint conflict model u Manual – Deliberate timeline analysis – Operational phasing – Critical events u Computer Assisted – Integrated theater management model – Tactical warfare model – Joint conflict model u Manual – Deliberate timeline analysis – Operational phasing – Critical events Course of Action Analysis Gather the Tools List Assumptions Critical Events & Decision Points Analysis Method Recording Method Analyze & Assess Risk Assessment Revalidate

12 Select Technique to Record and Display Analysis u Techniques –Narrative technique –Sketch and note technique –Synchronization matrix u Techniques –Narrative technique –Sketch and note technique –Synchronization matrix u Considerations –Assets available –Time available u Considerations –Assets available –Time available Course of Action Analysis Gather the Tools List Assumptions Critical Events & Decision Points Analysis Method Recording Method Analyze & Assess Risk Assessment Revalidate

13 Wargame the Operation and Assess Results u Visualize the flow of operations u Consider CTF component capabilities two echelons down u Action- Reaction/ Threat Consequence- Counteraction u Visualize the flow of operations u Consider CTF component capabilities two echelons down u Action- Reaction/ Threat Consequence- Counteraction Course of Action Analysis Gather the Tools List Assumptions Critical Events & Decision Points Analysis Method Recording Method Analyze & Assess Risk Assessment Revalidate

14 u Identify role players, recorders, and facilitators u Review assumptions, restated mission, and phases u Threat Cell: Threat lay down (disposition) u CPG leader – lead the Friendly actions u C2 lay down and structure u Forces (by component and function) u Firepower - priority targets u Friendly Intel action u Support (C1, C4, C6, Medical, Engineering) u Interagency actions u Threat reaction to friendly actions u For each phase or movement of forces, record the decision points, critical information requirements, branches, sequels, risks, other key issues u Friendly counteraction to threat reaction Conduct the Wargame: Checklist Course of Action Analysis

15 Synchronization Matrix TIME CONTINUOUS OR SINGLE EVENT PROBABLE THREAT DECISION POINTS CRITICAL INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS OPN MOVEMENT AND MANEUVER OPN FIREPOWER OPN PROTECTION OPN INFORMATION OPN INTEL OPN SUPPORT ARFOR/LAND COMPONENT MARFOR/LAND COMPONENT NAVFOR/MARITIME/JFACC AFFOR/AIR COMPONENT/JFACC JSOTF OTHERS FUNCTION FUNCTION JOINTJOINT AREASAREAS COMPONENTSCOMPONENTS D-DAY/ H-HOUR D + 1D + 2

16 Simplified Sync Matrix ACTOR CCTF CARFOR CNAVFOR CAFFOR CMARFOR CSOTF CPOTF EVENT COMMENT

17 Sample Analysis Worksheet SEQ- UENCE NUMBER ACTION REACTION/ THREAT/ ENEMY CONSE- QUENCES COUNTER- ACTION ASSETSTIMEDECISION POINT CCIRREMARKS CRITICAL EVENT:

18 Large Population W/O Shelter increases sickness Action/Reaction/Counteraction ACTION REACTION/CONSEQUENCE COUNTERACTION 1ST Priority is Provide Medical Support Modify TPFDD/Deployment Movement Plans to allow CTF to provide shelter and prioritize medical care.

19 Advantages & Disadvantages Advantages Disadvantages COA 1 - Rapid delivery - Meets critical needs Modifications1. Assign national forces by sector 2. Lead nation provides comms w/robust LNOs - Rough integration of forces - Rough transition - Complex organization - Not flexible at all - Adequate force protection

20 Results of Analysis u Identification of advantages and disadvantages of each friendly COA u Identification of additional assets required (if any) u Refinements or modifications to the COA u Risks and actions to reduce the risk at each geographic location or functional event geographic location or functional event u Adjustments to any established control measures u Identification of advantages and disadvantages of each friendly COA u Identification of additional assets required (if any) u Refinements or modifications to the COA u Risks and actions to reduce the risk at each geographic location or functional event geographic location or functional event u Adjustments to any established control measures Course of Action Analysis

21 Analysis Results (cont) u Deployment/Movement requirements u Synchronization requirements u Estimate of the duration of critical events as well as the operation as a whole u Required support from outside of the CTF u Requirements for logistic support u Clear picture of command relationships u Branches and sequels u Deployment/Movement requirements u Synchronization requirements u Estimate of the duration of critical events as well as the operation as a whole u Required support from outside of the CTF u Requirements for logistic support u Clear picture of command relationships u Branches and sequels Course of Action Analysis

22 u Critical information required to support decision points u Additional commanders decision points u Measures of effectiveness for each phase u Areas of high interest for reconnaissance, surveillance u Identification of component tasks u Task Organization requirements u Critical information required to support decision points u Additional commanders decision points u Measures of effectiveness for each phase u Areas of high interest for reconnaissance, surveillance u Identification of component tasks u Task Organization requirements Analysis Results (cont) Course of Action Analysis

23 Conduct Risk Assessment u Identify risks u Assess risks u Analyze acceptability of risk u Identify ways and means of risk mitigation u Identify risks u Assess risks u Analyze acceptability of risk u Identify ways and means of risk mitigation Course of Action Analysis Gather the Tools List Assumptions Critical Events & Decision Points Analysis Method Recording Method Analyze & Assess Risk Assessment Revalidate

24 RevalidateRevalidate u Suitable (Adequate): Will the COA accomplish the mission when carried out successfully, In other words, is it aimed at the right objectives? u Feasible: Do we have the required resources and can those resources be made available in time? u Acceptable: Even though the COA will accomplish the mission and we have the required resources, is it worth the cost in term of possible losses (military, time, political, etc.)? u Complete: Do the COAs answer WHO-WHAT- WHEN-WHERE-WHY-HOW? u Distinguishable: Are the COAs sufficiently different from each other? u Suitable (Adequate): Will the COA accomplish the mission when carried out successfully, In other words, is it aimed at the right objectives? u Feasible: Do we have the required resources and can those resources be made available in time? u Acceptable: Even though the COA will accomplish the mission and we have the required resources, is it worth the cost in term of possible losses (military, time, political, etc.)? u Complete: Do the COAs answer WHO-WHAT- WHEN-WHERE-WHY-HOW? u Distinguishable: Are the COAs sufficiently different from each other? Course of Action Analysis Gather the Tools List Assumptions Critical Events & Decision Points Analysis Method Recording Method Analyze & Assess Risk Assessment Revalidate

25 Lessons Learned u Identify events/locations and enemy capabilities first. u Analyze the end state and transitions. u Dont get caught in detailed analysis of one aspect at the expense of the entire COA. Watch time constraint. u The purpose of analysis is to identify advantages and disadvantages, not to prescribe component reactions. u During the COA analysis, the staff must not compare friendly COAs. The COAs will be analyzed against the enemys COAs. u Identify events/locations and enemy capabilities first. u Analyze the end state and transitions. u Dont get caught in detailed analysis of one aspect at the expense of the entire COA. Watch time constraint. u The purpose of analysis is to identify advantages and disadvantages, not to prescribe component reactions. u During the COA analysis, the staff must not compare friendly COAs. The COAs will be analyzed against the enemys COAs.

26 Course of Action Analysis: Summary u Evaluate each proposed friendly COA as though executed against the most probable and most dangerous enemy or threat COA u Conduct analysis in an orderly fashion u Consider crisis termination issues u Think through action-consequences-reaction u Analyze/wargame and record results u Revalidate u Evaluate each proposed friendly COA as though executed against the most probable and most dangerous enemy or threat COA u Conduct analysis in an orderly fashion u Consider crisis termination issues u Think through action-consequences-reaction u Analyze/wargame and record results u Revalidate Course of Action Analysis Gather the Tools List Assumptions Critical Events & Decision Points Analysis Method Recording Method Analyze & Assess Risk Assessment Revalidate

27 Course of Action Analysis Course of Action Analysis Multinational Planning Augmentation Team Questions?


Download ppt "Course of Action Analysis Purpose u Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process u Discuss the associated."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google