1. Michael Zgurovsky National Technical University of Ukraine Kyiv Polytechnic Institute zgurovsm@hotmail.com Knowledge Security and Responsible Science as Integral Components of a Safe and Secure of Global Society 1

2. Properties: Development of the knowledge of "how to operate type The main dimension of IS is technological; Transformation of information into the digital form; Storage of great volumes of information (data bases); Transfer of great volumes of digital information over distances by Internet; Emergence of network interaction between people; 2 INFORMATION SOCIETY (has arisen in 80-90-s of last century)

3. 3 Properties: Additionally to knowledge type "how to operate" the knowledge "how to co-exist" has started to be developed; Dimensions: technological, social, ethnic, political; Mass production of the new, harmonized knowledge by IKT; Scientific knowledge became productive forces of K- society; An integral vector of development of the K-society is quality and safety of people life. KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY (has arisen on the boundary of the XX-XXIst centuries)

4. Iks=Iia+If+Ia Iia - ; Iia - Intellectual Assets Index ; If - ; If - Foresightedness Index ; Ia - Ia - Advancement IndexIks=Iia+If+Ia Iia - ; Iia - Intellectual Assets Index ; If - ; If - Foresightedness Index ; Ia - Ia - Advancement Index K-Society Gauging Matrix K-Society Gauging Matrix (2005) (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs 2005)United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs I ia IfIf IfIf IaIa IaIa I ks

5. 5IndexesIndicators Iia Iia Intellectual Assets Index Years of schooling (years) Young population getting education ( % of 0-14 age group) Level of information granting to the population by the Internet, telephones, newspapers, magazines If Foresightedness Index Govt Health Expenditures (% of total govt exp) R & D expenditures (% of GDP) Military expenditures (% of GDP) Pupils per teacher in primary school Corruption perception (10-point scale) Ia Advancement Index Child mortality (children under 5 years per 1000 births) Income Inequality ( Gini Index) Part of ecologically protected territory (% of the total territory) CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita) Indexes of К-Society

6. 5 Leading countries by K-society Index RankCountries 1Sweden 2Denmark 3Norway 4Finland 5Switzerland

7. 7 Rank Countries 6Japan 7Germany 10Great Britain 12USA 14Canada 15France 21Italy Not included in Top 45 Russia, China G8 Counties by K-society index

8. Disharmony between knowledge "how to operate" and "how to co-exist 8 Top 5 Countries by Foresightedness Index 1. Denmark If=0.876 2.Austria If=0.828 3.Slovakia If=0.759 4.Costa Rika If=0.759 5.Switzerland If=0.750 G8 Countries by Foresightedness Index 8. Germany If=0.773 11.Great Brittan If=0.712 14.Japan If=0.683 15.France If=0.682 25.Italy If=0.662 37.Canada If=0.550 38.USA If=0,547 Russia not included in Top 45

9. 9 Comparison by Intellectual Assets Index (Ііа) Country Ііа Years of schooling Young population getting education ( % of 0-14 age group) Newspap ers per 1,000 pop. Internet users per 10000 pop. Main phone lines per 100 pop. Cell phones per 100 pop. Europe-5 0.70415.9218.17426.8489768.5378.3 Ukraine 0.57611.517.0554 3900 50.360.38 Сomparison by Advancement Index (Іa) Country ІaІa R & D expenditures (% of GDP) Military expenditures (% of GDP) Govt Health Expenditures (% of total govt exp) Pupils per teacher in primary school Corruption perception (10-point scale) Europe-5 0.7612.801.76013.011.39.22 Ukraine 0.3830.951.7937.620.02.30 Comparison by Foresightedness Index (Іf) Country ІfІf Child mortality (children under 5 years per 1000 births) GINI Index Part of ecologically protected territory (% of the total territory) CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita) Europe-5 0.7354.426.808.648.9 Ukraine 0.6202028.961.006.2 Comparison of Ukraine with Europe-5 by K-Society Indicators (Europ-5: (Europ-5: Finland, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, United Kingdom)

10. The possible Ukrainian Strategy of Approaching to K-Society 10 – TO ACCELERATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FIRST STAGE (INFORMATION SOCIETY) BY MEANS OF INVOLVEMENT OF INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL INVESTMENTS AND CARRYING OUT PRINCIPALLY IMPORTANT INSTITUTIONAL TRANSFORMATIONS; – TO MOBILIZE IN THE UNIFIED COMPLEX POLITICAL AND PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS OF THE STATE WITH THE PURPOSE OF PRIORITY DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT STAGE – K- SOCIETY, THE MAIN OBJECTIVE OF WHICH SHOULD BE ENSURING HIGH QUALITY AND SECURITY OF LIFE FOR ALL CITIZENS OF UKRAINE.

11. M AIN G LOBAL T HREATS OF XXI C ENTURY Energy& Resources crisis Global Diseases Humanitarian Cataclysms E nviron- mental Problems Growing Biocapacity/ Consumption Misbalance

12. 2007 2092 2050 Consumption Production oilgasuranium 235 years Global Reduction of Natural Energy Resources //Hermann Scheer – Energy is a driving force for our civilization – SOLAR ADVOCATE, 2005

13. ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS - - Growing pollution of environment; - Global warming; - Climate change; - Natural and Anthropogenic disasters; - Limited access to the potable water http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=45069 Temperature anomalies for the Russian Federation from July 20–27, 2010

14. Mortality Tuberculosis Malaria Years Cancer Ischemic heart disease Cerebral vascular disease (stroke) HIV/AIDS Other infectious diseases The World Health Statistics 2009 Vulnerability to Global Diseases Vulnerability to Global Diseases //World Health Organization: http://apps.who.int/whosis/data/Search.jsp

15. Biological Disbalance Ecological debtor and creditor countries, 2005 Source: Living Planet Report 2008Link: http://assets.panda.org/downloads/living_planet_report_2008.pdfhttp://assets.panda.org/downloads/living_planet_report_2008.pdf Gap 14 Billion Global Hectares UN World Population Projections, 1950-2050

16. INFORMATION B OOM 0,9 ZB 35 ZB Gap 20 ZB 2020 Zettabyte = 10 21 bytes ZB Information Size > Storage Available Source: IDC Digital Universe Study 2010 Link: http://www.emc.com/collateral/demos/microsites/idc-digital-universe/iview.htm 0,25 ZB 15 ZB

17. Threat 1 (ES) Threat 10 (ND) Threat 2 (FB) Country Sustainability FB ° ND ° ES ° - Remoteness to the Threats Totality (Minkovsky Norm) Impact Analysis of the Totality of Global Threats I sec = Threats Totality

18. - Security Index (Minkovsky Norm) - Security Index (Minkovsky Norm) 1. Data Preparation 4. Klasterization 3. Calculation of the Remotness to the Threats Totality ES ES – Energy Security FB FB – Footprint and Biocapacity Misbalance GINI GINI – Inequality GD GD – Global Diseases CM CM – Child Mortality CP CP – Corruption Perception WA WA – Water Access GW GW – Global Warming SF SF – State Fragility ND ND – Natural Disasters ES ES – Energy Security FB FB – Footprint and Biocapacity Misbalance GINI GINI – Inequality GD GD – Global Diseases CM CM – Child Mortality CP CP – Corruption Perception WA WA – Water Access GW GW – Global Warming SF SF – State Fragility ND ND – Natural Disasters 2. Normalization I sec = Impact Analysis of the Totality of Global Threats on the Sustainability 18

19. 10 leader Countries in terms of Security of K-Society ISOCountry Security Rank Security Index (Minkowski Norm) Global Threats Energy Security Index (ES) Biological balance (BB) Ineguality (Gini Index) Corruption Perception (CP) Limited access to potable water (WA) CO2 Emission (GW) Child Mortality (CM) Natural disasters (ND) State fragility index (SF) Vulnerability to global deseases (GD) AUS Australia11,5500,9320,9160,5700,8750,6760,1030,675 0,56 2 0,6010,653 ISL Iceland21,5340,7980,6800,9620,8640,6760,4340,686 0,58 5 0,3850,653 FIN Finland31,4860,4270,8720,7270,8970,6760,3020,686 0,58 4 0,6590,658 CAN Canada41,4820,6320,9160,6230,8840,6760,1480,669 0,58 4 0,6040,649 SWE Sweden51,4670,4680,7670,7570,8970,6760,5040,686 0,58 5 0,5930,651 LUX Luxembour g 61,4520,2730,3490,9620,8640,6760,0670,686 0,58 4 0,7130,647 NZL New Zealand 71,4330,4810,8590,5500,9010,6760,4060,669 0,48 7 0,6120,655 PRY Paraguay81,4130,9770,9180,2450,2670,4340,6820,561 0,54 2 0,5180,593 NOR Norway91,4120,5990,5130,7450,8690,6760,3080,686 0,58 4 0,6440,646 URY Uruguay101,4030,4810,8150,4190,7550,6760,6150,626 0,54 7 0,7440,624

20. G8 Countries in Terms of Security of K-Society 20 ISO Country Security Rank Security Index (Minkowski Norm) Global Threats Energy Security Index Footprint and biocapacity Balance Ineguality (Gini Index) Corruption Perception Water Access CO2 Emission Child Mortality Natural Catastrofs State Fragility Global Desasters CAN Canada 40,910,680,920,620,880,680,150,670,340,390,65 RUS Russian Federation 150,770,920,610,420,260,610,260,630,350,320,61 USA United States 160,770,890,250,450,770,660,130,660,440,460,64 DEU Germany 180,730,390,300,700,830,680,340,680,340,440,65 FRA France 200,710,280,380,620,750,680,470,680,370,280,65 JPN Japan 220,670,260,250,760,820,680,340,690,350,900,64 GBR United Kingdom 290,600,260,270,550,810,680,380,670,350,550,64 ITA Italy 410,520,290,260,550,440,680,420,680,340,310,65

21. BRICS Countries in terms of Security of K-Society 21 ISO Country Security Rank SecurityIndex (Minkowski Norm) Global Threats Energy Security Index Footprint and biocapacity Balance Ineguality (Gini Index) Corruption Perception Water Access CO2 Emission Child Mortality Natural Catastrofs State Fragility Global Desasters BRABrazil 130,780,740,870,220,420,63 0,570,400,270,59 RUS Russian Federation 150,770,920,610,420,260,610,260,630,350,320,61 CHNChina 800,320,760,430,440,400,490,510,590,990,600,62 INDIndia 840,300,690,490,540,380,470,650,290,630,460,37 ZAF South Africa 1050.180.510.430.170.510.520.370.310.410.300.07

22. 10 Least Safe Countries 22

23. What should happen with the world civilization if its behavior is subordinated to the paradigm of unlimited consumption? What should happen with the world civilization if its behavior is subordinated to the paradigm of unlimited consumption? Possible Scenarios Generated by Totality of Global Threats 23

24. « «In the geological history of biosphere human beings will have great future, if they realize it and do not use their mind and labor Vladimir Vernadsky, 1947for self-destruction» Vladimir Vernadsky, 1947 «If the mankind is not going to radically change its behavior on the Planetary scale, then in the middle of XXI century there may appear conditions under which people cannot exist» Nikita Moiseyev, 2000 «If the mankind is not going to radically change its behavior on the Planetary scale, then in the middle of XXI century there may appear conditions under which people cannot exist» Nikita Moiseyev, 2000 The answer to this question can be found in the works of two scientists: 24

25. 25 The statistical data for Vernadskys and Moiseev postulats corresponded to the constant paradigm of the mankind existence: Unlimited satisfaction of its needs and requirements The statistical data for Vernadskys and Moiseev postulats corresponded to the constant paradigm of the mankind existence: Unlimited satisfaction of its needs and requirements If we assume that the mankind will change the paradigm of its existence on the Planetary scale for K-Society one: «Harmonious coexistence», then mankind will find new prospects for prolongation of its mission on the Planet. If we assume that the mankind will change the paradigm of its existence on the Planetary scale for K-Society one: «Harmonious coexistence», then mankind will find new prospects for prolongation of its mission on the Planet. What is the way out for mankind for the situation?

26. K-S OCIETY M ISSION To facilitate S&T development in accordance with new challenges and priorities of the international science with the purpose of formation of Safe and Secure Global Society" Proposal:

27. Thank you ! 27