1. Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution: First ideas for scenarios Matti Vainio Clean Air for Europe programme Working Group on Target Setting and Policy Assessment 16 June 2004

2. Outline 4 Target based approach –Comply with current Air Quality legislation –No exceedance of critical loads and levels of acidification and eutrophication 4 Measures based approaches –Reducing ship emissions –Reducing road emissions 4 Measures effecting energy baseline

3. Target based approach 1. Comply with current Air Quality legislation (Framework Directive and Daughter Directives) –Only annual averages can be calculated –Including (an equivalent of) anthropogenic PM2.5 –Note that RAINS can model only urban background concentrations RAINS could model what it would take to comply with urban background Could one convert hot spots to equivalent urban background?

4. Target based approach (2) 2. No exceedance of critical loads and levels of acidification and eutrophication –can we make it by 2020?

5. Optimizing on 4 Environment –Acidification Accumulated exceedence –Eutrophication Accumulated exceedence –Ozone Annual average (AOT40?) … ozone flux? 4 Health –Meet EU limit values –Mortality due to O3 (AOT35) and PM2.5 (gap filling of lives saved) = Population weighted exposure to O3 (AOT35) and PM2.5 Effect of aging population? What would be the first step?

6. Markus 4 Impact assessment of policy packages –Cannot say anything about cost effectiveness 4 For T/S scoping for ambition level for pollutants –Need to get optimisation running –Meteorology

7. Measures based approach 4 In this meeting: focus is on transport sector –note that rail sector has been recently regulated up to 2015 and thus no new measures are considered –aviation emissions for Nox could be considered as part of measures reducing greenhouse gas emissions

8. Measures based approach (2) 4 Reducing ship emissions –First ideas for modelling 4 Reducing road emissions –Euro 5 for passenger cars –Euro 6 for heavy duty trucks –Stage 2 to reduce evaporative emissions from petrol filling stations

9. Measures based approach (3) 4 Transport sector (cont) –Measures to reduce emissions from captive fleet Purchasing low emission buses in urban areas –e.g. through subsidies (CleanUp) Reducing emissions from existing vehicles (e.g. retrofitting buses) –Effect of refueling Better maintenance –Using infrastructure/congestion charging

10. Effects of modifying the energy baseline 4 Effects on air pollution of the removal of energy subsidies –It would be good to know if this impact is large or small 4 Effects of climate change policies on energy baseline

11. Questions 4 We have tried to pick up obvious scenarios –Do you concur? 4 Should we define other scenarios already at this stage?