1. Dr. Lajos CSEPI (State Secretary for Transport ) Hungary CLIMATE CHANGE: ENERGY AND TRANSPORT Issues, challenges and strategies in Hungary

2. Contents Projected climate change in Hungary (Carpathian Basin) Potential impacts of climate change on transportation Adaptation: incorporating climate change into transport plans, programmes and policies Mitigation: Strategies and Instruments CO 2 -emissions by sector and subsector in EU-27 and in Hungary Guiding principles in the Hungarian Energy Policy relevant for climate change Conclusions Proposals 2

3. Projected climate change in Hungary Reference period: climate of years from 1961 to 1990 Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences) 3

4. Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation Focusing on Road Transport (1) 1.Main effects: – Increase of very hot days and heat waves – More frequent precipitation events – Increasing frequency and intensity of strong winds 2.Summarized results: warming of Hungary’s climate will be 20–25% greater than Earth’s average, especially in summer 3.Affected infrastructure: – flooding of roads, railways and airports – increase of temperature of road surface and rails in summer (decrease of working load of pavement) 4 Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences)

5. 4.Impacts on traffic safety: – Increasing intensity of side winds on roads – Increasing intensity of weather fronts – Increasing heat waves 5.Change of habits and demands of transport (passengers and goods) Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences) 5 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation Focusing on Road Transport (2)

6. Adaptation: incorporating of climate change into transport plans, programmes and polices 1.More strategic, risk based approaches are needed for investment decisions of redesigning and retrofitting transport infrastructure 2.Inventory is needed of critical infrastructure (focusing on roads) affected by climate change 3.Integration of information on extreme weather into the public information system 4.Development of programmes for adaptation strategies for the near and medium terms regarding vehicle fleets and road infrastructures 5.Integrate emergency planning into operation 6.Large scale use of air condition in vehicles 6 Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences)

7. Mitigation strategies and instruments I.Strategies: 1.Carbon tax systems 2.CO 2 emission trading 3.Evaluation of CO 2 reduction 4.Harmonisation of policy for energy, climate change and sustainability 5.Improvement of safety of energy supply by diversification of motor fuels 6.Improvement of energy efficiency of vehicles (20% by 2020) 7.Reduction of greenhouse gases (20% by 2020) 8.Increase of share of renewable energy (biofuels) (20% by 2020) 7 Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences)

8. II.Specific instruments for the transport sector: Direct effects: 1.Fuel taxation (special carbon tax) 2.Vehicle taxation based on CO 2 emission 3.User charges for infrastructure use with differentiation or mark-ups for CO 2 4.Regulation and standards 8 Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences) Indirect effects: 1.Development of transport infrastructure 2.Planning of land-use, influencing transport demands 3.Development new technologies of vehicles

9. 9 Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences)

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11. Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences) 11

12. Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences) 12

13. 13 CO2 Emission in Hungary by Road Transport Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences)

14. Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences) 14

15. Guiding Principles in the Hungarian Energy Policy (2008–2020) Relevant for Climate Change (40/2008. (IV. 17.) Parliamentary Decree) The Hungarian energy policy has to contribute to the sustainable development by means of decrease of specific energy consumption and increase of renewable energy sources (Point 4) The harmony between the Hungarian policies of energy and climate change has to be guaranteed (Point 5) The framing and implementation of the Hungarian transport policy has to correspond to the energy policy especially regarding the decrease of harmful emissions of transport and increase of biofuels (Point 6) Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences) 15

16. Hungary supports the UNECE World Forum for Harmonization of Vehicle Regulations Strategy for CO2 reduction: “ From fossil fuels to H2 and electricity” Short term (2015) –Energy efficiency by engine technology, TPMS, rolling resistance …. –Use of sustainable bio-fuels Mid term (2015-2025) –Plug-in hybrid vehicles in the market Long term (2025-2040) –Electric and Hydrogen vehicles in the market Sustainable and cost-effective generation of electricity and production of H2 is needed Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences)

17. Conclusions/1 The transport’s, especially the road transport’s share of CO 2 emission is determinant and increasing The regulations on CO2 emission of passenger cars can be considered as first positive signal on the roadmap for the CO 2 reduction policy of EU The light duty and heavy duty trucks have a large share in the CO 2 emissions of road transport but no regulation in this respect up to now The rapid increase of CO2 emission of the new member countries can be prevented by replacement of their old vehicle fleets, and by planned influencing of import of old, used vehicles having high fuel consumption Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences) 17

18. Conclusions/2 The present economic crisis offers possibilities for investments in this way for renewal of old vehicle fleets thus for introducing new efficient technologies The climate change will generate qualitative problems but not quantitative ones for the home transport Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences) 18

19. Proposals Efficiency targets and requirements have to be introduced for light duty and heavy duty trucks and city buses Testing procedures and efficiency targets have to be elaborated for air conditioning systems used in vehicles as well as for tyres The replacement of old road vehicles has to be supported EU-wide Information of forecast on weather extremes (short- range and medium-range) has to be improved and realise in international cooperation as soon as possible Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences) 19