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M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes. Z. Klimont, W. Schöpp, W. Winiwarter The CAFE baseline scenarios: Key findings.

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Presentation on theme: "M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes. Z. Klimont, W. Schöpp, W. Winiwarter The CAFE baseline scenarios: Key findings."— Presentation transcript:

1 M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes. Z. Klimont, W. Schöpp, W. Winiwarter The CAFE baseline scenarios: Key findings

2 1) Emissions will further decline Present legislation and structural change will significantly reduce air pollution in the future Expected changes between 2000 and 2020 (EU-25): –SO 2: -65% –NO x :-50% –VOC: -45% –NH 3 : -4% –PM2.5: -45%

3 2) But: Air quality remains threat to human health In 2020: Approximately 5 months loss in life expectancy due to PM Several 1000s premature deaths due to ozone

4 3) Sustainable conditions for vegetation will not be reached European forests –will continue be exposed to ozone up to six times above sustainable levels – km 2 (13%) will receive unsustainable acid deposition Many Natura2000 areas remain unprotected from acidification 13% of Swedish lakes will face excess of critical loads 55% of European ecosystems will receive too high nitrogen deposition, endangering bio-diversity

5 4) Relevance of sources will change Traditional large polluters will reduce their contributions Other sources will take over: –SO 2 : Ships, industrial processes, small sources –NO x : Ships, diesel heavy duty vehicles, off-road –VOC: Solvents –NH 3 : Agriculture –PM: Wood burning, industrial processes Impacts on population exposure needs to be further explored

6 5) Ships will surpass land-based EU sources SO 2 NO x

7 6) Energy projections will influence future emissions Alternative energy projections lead to different emissions However, within realistic limits, baseline emission projections are robust But: Potential and costs for further measures is critically influenced by projected energy structure


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