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M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes. Z. Klimont, W. Schöpp, W. Winiwarter The CAFE baseline scenarios: Air quality and impacts

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Air quality impacts analyzed for the CAFE baseline scenario Health: Loss in life expectancy attributable to PM2.5 Premature deaths attributable to ozone Vegetation: Ozone damage to forests (AOT40) Excess acid deposition to forests Excess acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems Excess acid deposition to lakes Excess nitrogen deposition All impacts shown for no further climate measures scenario, average results of 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorological conditions

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Inter-annual meteorological variability for PM Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m 3 ] from known anthropog. sources excluding sec. org. aerosols. Calculations with emissions for the year 2000

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Anthropogenic contribution to PM Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m 3 ] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

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Anthropogenic contribution to PM Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m 3 ] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

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Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months] Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5 Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

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Loss in life expectancy 2020 attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months] Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5 Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

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Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months]

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Premature mortality attributable to ozone related to excess of daily max. 8 hour means > 35 ppb (SOMO35) Applied relative risk factor: / 10 µg/m 3 increase in daily max 8 h mean

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Health-relevant ozone concentrations [SOMO35, ppb.days] Rural concentrations Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

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Premature deaths attributable to ozone [cases/year] Provisional calculations with 50*50 km resolution

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Vegetation-relevant ozone concentrations AOT40 [ppm.hours]m Critical level for forests = 5 ppm.hours Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

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Vegetation-relevant ozone concentrations 2020 AOT40 [ppm.hours] Critical level for forests: 5 ppm.hours Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

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Acid deposition to forests Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition, Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

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Acid deposition to forests 2020 Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition, Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

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Percent of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads

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Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems including HABITAT areas Percentage of area of semi-natural ecosystems with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

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Percentage of area of semi-natural ecosystems with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems including HABITAT areas, 2020

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Semi-natural ecosystems with acid deposition above critical loads [km 2 ]

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Percentage of catchments area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies Acid deposition to freshwater bodies

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Percentage of catchments area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies Acid deposition to freshwater bodies 2020

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Percent of lake catchments area with acid deposition above critical loads

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Excess of critical loads for eutrophication Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads, using grid-average deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

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Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads, using grid-average deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies Excess of critical loads for eutrophication 2020

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Percent of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads for eutrophication

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Conclusions With decreasing pollution, also impacts are expected to decline in the future. However, problems will not be entirely resolved: –PM remains serious (~5 months life expectancy loss in 2020) –Ozone: Remains a significant cause for premature deaths (Several 1000 cases in 2020) Vegetation damage: Wide-spread violations of AOT40 critical level will prevail –Acidification: Will not disappear, mainly due to NH 3 –Eutrophication remains unresolved

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