1. The CAFE baseline scenarios: Air quality and impacts
M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes. Z. Klimont, W. Schöpp, W. Winiwarter
The CAFE baseline scenarios:
Air quality and impacts

2. Air quality impacts analyzed for the CAFE baseline scenario
Health:
Loss in life expectancy attributable to PM2.5
Premature deaths attributable to ozone
Vegetation:
Ozone damage to forests (AOT40)
Excess acid deposition to forests
Excess acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems
Excess acid deposition to lakes
Excess nitrogen deposition
All impacts shown for “no further climate measures” scenario, average results of 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorological conditions

3. Inter-annual meteorological variability for PM2.5
1997
1999
Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3]
from known anthropog. sources excluding sec. org. aerosols. Calculations with emissions for the year 2000
2000
2003

4. Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.5
Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3]
from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

5. Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.5 2020
Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3]
from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

6. Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months]
Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5 Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

7. Loss in life expectancy 2020 attributable to anthropogenic PM2
Loss in life expectancy 2020 attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months]
Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5 Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

8. Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months]

9. Premature mortality attributable to ozone related to excess of daily max. 8 hour means > 35 ppb (SOMO35)
Applied relative risk factor: / 10 µg/m3 increase in daily max 8 h mean

10. Health-relevant ozone concentrations [SOMO35, ppb.days]
Rural concentrations Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

11. Premature deaths attributable to ozone [cases/year]
Provisional calculations with 50*50 km resolution

12. Vegetation-relevant ozone concentrations AOT40 [ppm.hours]m
Critical level for forests = 5 ppm.hours
Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

13. Vegetation-relevant ozone concentrations 2020 AOT40 [ppm.hours]
Critical level for forests: 5 ppm.hours
Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

14. Acid deposition to forests
Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition, Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

15. Acid deposition to forests 2020
Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition, Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

16. Percent of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads

17. Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems including HABITAT areas
Percentage of area of semi-natural ecosystems with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

18. Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems including HABITAT areas, 2020
Percentage of area of semi-natural ecosystems with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

19. Semi-natural ecosystems with acid deposition above critical loads [km2]

20. Acid deposition to freshwater bodies
Percentage of catchments area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

21. Acid deposition to freshwater bodies 2020
Percentage of catchments area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

22. Percent of lake catchments area with acid deposition above critical loads

23. Excess of critical loads for eutrophication
Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads, using grid-average deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

24. Excess of critical loads for eutrophication 2020
Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads, using grid-average deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

25. Percent of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads for eutrophication

26. Conclusions
With decreasing pollution, also impacts are expected to decline in the future.
However, problems will not be entirely resolved:
PM remains serious (~5 months life expectancy loss in 2020)
Ozone:
Remains a significant cause for premature deaths (Several 1000 cases in 2020)
Vegetation damage: Wide-spread violations of AOT40 critical level will prevail
Acidification: Will not disappear, mainly due to NH3
Eutrophication remains unresolved