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M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes. Z. Klimont, W. Schöpp, W. Winiwarter The CAFE baseline scenarios: Air quality and impacts.

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Presentation on theme: "M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes. Z. Klimont, W. Schöpp, W. Winiwarter The CAFE baseline scenarios: Air quality and impacts."— Presentation transcript:

1 M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes. Z. Klimont, W. Schöpp, W. Winiwarter The CAFE baseline scenarios: Air quality and impacts

2 Air quality impacts analyzed for the CAFE baseline scenario Health: Loss in life expectancy attributable to PM2.5 Premature deaths attributable to ozone Vegetation: Ozone damage to forests (AOT40) Excess acid deposition to forests Excess acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems Excess acid deposition to lakes Excess nitrogen deposition All impacts shown for no further climate measures scenario, average results of 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorological conditions

3 Inter-annual meteorological variability for PM Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m 3 ] from known anthropog. sources excluding sec. org. aerosols. Calculations with emissions for the year 2000

4 Anthropogenic contribution to PM Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m 3 ] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

5 Anthropogenic contribution to PM Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m 3 ] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

6 Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months] Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5 Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

7 Loss in life expectancy 2020 attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months] Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5 Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

8 Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months]

9 Premature mortality attributable to ozone related to excess of daily max. 8 hour means > 35 ppb (SOMO35) Applied relative risk factor: / 10 µg/m 3 increase in daily max 8 h mean

10 Health-relevant ozone concentrations [SOMO35, ppb.days] Rural concentrations Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

11 Premature deaths attributable to ozone [cases/year] Provisional calculations with 50*50 km resolution

12 Vegetation-relevant ozone concentrations AOT40 [ppm.hours]m Critical level for forests = 5 ppm.hours Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

13 Vegetation-relevant ozone concentrations 2020 AOT40 [ppm.hours] Critical level for forests: 5 ppm.hours Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

14 Acid deposition to forests Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition, Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

15 Acid deposition to forests 2020 Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition, Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

16 Percent of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads

17 Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems including HABITAT areas Percentage of area of semi-natural ecosystems with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

18 Percentage of area of semi-natural ecosystems with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems including HABITAT areas, 2020

19 Semi-natural ecosystems with acid deposition above critical loads [km 2 ]

20 Percentage of catchments area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies Acid deposition to freshwater bodies

21 Percentage of catchments area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies Acid deposition to freshwater bodies 2020

22 Percent of lake catchments area with acid deposition above critical loads

23 Excess of critical loads for eutrophication Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads, using grid-average deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

24 Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads, using grid-average deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies Excess of critical loads for eutrophication 2020

25 Percent of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads for eutrophication

26 Conclusions With decreasing pollution, also impacts are expected to decline in the future. However, problems will not be entirely resolved: –PM remains serious (~5 months life expectancy loss in 2020) –Ozone: Remains a significant cause for premature deaths (Several 1000 cases in 2020) Vegetation damage: Wide-spread violations of AOT40 critical level will prevail –Acidification: Will not disappear, mainly due to NH 3 –Eutrophication remains unresolved


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