1. Chapter 10: National Security PS130 World Politics Michael R. Baysdell Saginaw Valley State University

2. Defense: United States v 19% of United States Federal Budget v 1.4 Million active duty in 5 services v 1.2 Million reserve v Joint Chiefs of Staff report to President v Volunteer Military with registration v Between 1700 and 2200 nuclear warheads v NATO Member v Committed by Treaty to also defend Japan, South Korea, Australia, OAS

3. Mandatory and Discretionary Spending v Mandatory spending refers to money that lawmakers are required by law to spend on certain programs or to use for interest payments on the national debt. Includes Social Security, Income Security, Medicare, Debt Interest, Veterans benefits v Discretionary spending is spending about which government planners can make choices. VERY small!! (Education, Employment, Social Services, Transportation, Justice, Environment Administration of Justice Health Medicare Income security Social Security Veteran’s benefits Other Net interest Defense Science, space and technology Energy, natural resources,&environment Agriculture Transportation Education Note: Because of rounding, totals may be less or greater than 100%. Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States 2% 1% 2.5% 2% 0.7% 1% 1% 15% 16% 3% 8% 12% 14% 23% Federal Spending

4. History of Defense Dep’t v 1789: Department of the Army v 1789: Department of the Navy v Merged 1947, into Department of Defense under 1 civilian secretary v 2002: NorthCom created to partially overrule Posse Comitatus Act of 1878 v 2003: Department of Homeland Security v 2006: National Missile Defense activated

5. Recent U.S. Military Deployments v US has used force in history over 200 times, from small covert actions to World War II v 1983: Grenada v 1986: Libya (1981/86 shootdowns; 86 attack after nightclub bombing, led to Pan-Am 103) v 1989: Panama v 1990-91: Persian Gulf War v 1993: Somalia v 1995: Bosnia v 1999: Kosovo v 2001: Afghanistan v 2003: Iraq v 2005: Liberia

6. Current Issues in Defense v Preemption strategy v Iraq v Draft—highly unlikely; not favored by Pentagon v New threat: Terrorism

7. U.S. Membership in Organizations v United Nations, 1945 (World Bank, IMF WHO, all UN organizations exc. ICC) v Rio Treaty leads to OAS, 1947 v NATO, 1949 v ANZUS, 1951 (New Zealand inactive) v SEATO now dead v NAFTA w/Canada and Mexico

8. 8 War: The Human Record v War is as ancient as humanity –Increase in frequency: almost 1,000 wars during the last millennium –30% of all wars have occurred in last 200 years v Severity also on the rise –75% of all war deaths have occurred since 1900 –Continued threat of nuclear war v Lower percentage of countries involved in international conflict– higher percentage of countries involved in civil conflicts v Concept of a “just war”

9. “Just Wars”—St. Augustine v Just wars are usually defined as those which avenge injuries, when the nation or city against which warlike action is to be directed has neglected either to punish wrongs committed by its own citizens or to restore what has been unjustly taken by it. v Further, that kind of war is undoubtedly just which God Himself ordains.“ v Analysis of some recent conflicts

10. What Causes War? v Dissatisfied with status quo (Hitler and Versailles Treaty) v Nationalism/Jingoism v Self-defense v Collective self-defense/Help a helpless 3 rd party v Perception of leaders (Galtieri, Hussein) v Preemptory strikes more effective, self-defense implications (Bush 43 and Iraq) v Religion v Conquest (outlawed by UN Charter) v Parity—both sides are evenly matched and think it would be possible to beat the other v Preponderance—one side really believes it can clean the other side’s clock v Xenophobia—fear of foreigners (unites citizens) v No single root cause of war v Each level of analysis sheds some light on the question of why we fight –System-level –State-level –Individual-level

11. What Promotes Peace? v Interdependence—if you really need something from the other state, you can’t risk war v Alliances—collective security mechanisms make aggressors less likely to attack v Communication (Prisoner’s Dilemma hampers)

12. Prisoner’s dilemma v Two prisoners are accused of a crime. v If one confesses and the other does not, the one who confesses will be released immediately and the other will spend 20 years in prison. v If neither confesses, each will be released. v If both confess, they will each be jailed 5 years. v They cannot communicate with one another. v Given that neither prisoner knows whether the other has confessed, it is in the self-interest of each to confess himself. v Paradoxically, when each prisoner pursues his self-interest, both end up worse off than they would have been had they acted otherwise v Demonstrates how many conflicts are caused by system-level factors, although all 3 levels of analysis offer insight into why war happens

13. 13 System-Level Causes of War v Distribution of power –Number of poles and their relative power v Anarchical nature of the system –Self-help system creates a tension-filled cycle of escalating arms -> tensions -> arms -> tensions v Economic factors –Global patterns of production and use of natural resources –Increasing gap between rich and poor v Biosphere stress –Limited resources, such as water or oil

14. 14 State-Level Causes of War v Militarism –Belief that the nature of modern politics has deep military roots v Externalization of internal conflict –Diversionary war: When governments try to consolidate their power by fomenting tensions with other countries v Type of country –Nature of political structure (authoritarian versus democratic) and economic resources v Political Culture –Influence of the historical experiences and religious beliefs that construct the national identity

15. 15 Individual-Level Causes of War v Human Characteristics –Instinctual human behaviors, such as territoriality –Human aggression stemming from stress, anxiety, or frustration v Individual Leaders –Importance of individual personalities: u Risk-taker or cautious conservative u Influence of individual experiences and emotions

16. Lessons from Byzantium v Edward Luttwak, who says he has studied Byzantine documents and other writings for two decades, advises Americans to learn 7 lessons from Byzantium. They are: v 1. Avoid war by every possible means... but always act as if war might start at anytime.... Train intensively and be ready for battle at all times. v 2. Gather intelligence on the enemy and his mentality, and monitor his actions continuously. v 3. Campaign vigorously, both offensively and defensively, but avoid battles, especially large-scale battles. v 4. Replace the battle of attrition and occupation of countries with maneuver warfare -- lightning strikes and offensive raids to disrupt enemies. v 5. Strive to end wars successfully by recruiting allies to change the balance of power. Diplomacy is even more important during war than peace. v 6. Subversion is the cheapest path to victory. So cheap, in fact, as compared with the risks and costs of battle that it must always be attempted.... Remember: Even religious fanatics can be bribed. v 7. When diplomacy and subversion are not enough and fighting is unavoidable, use methods and tactics that exploit enemy weaknesses, avoid consuming combat forces, and patiently whittle down the enemy's strength."

17. 17 Effectiveness of Force: Evaluating Its Success by Utilitarian Standards v Measurement: –Cost/benefit analysis u What are the trade-offs? u No objective way to measure the costs of loss of human life, human anguish, and economic destruction –Goal attainment u Were the goals rational and legitimate to begin with?

18. 18 Conditions for the Successful Use of Force v Clearly defined, long-standing, and previously demonstrated commitment v Strong commitments, publicly announced by leaders v Military force used to counter other military force, not to control political events v Force used early and decisively instead of through extended threatening and slow escalation v Clearly established goals v Secure domestic support for actions and goals v Develop a plausible exit strategy to avoid endless entanglement v Use overwhelming force, get in and get out v Powell Doctrine (named after U.S. General Colin Powell during the run-up to the Persian Gulf War in 1990-91) Powell Doctrine asserted that all of these above conditions must be present to achieve military and political success when using armed forces v Opponents of the Iraq War claim Bush administration failed to follow several principles of Powell Doctrine in launching war against Iraq in 2003 and the military occupation of the country through 2007.

19. 19 The Changing Nature of War v Technology has increased killing power--Civil War Minie Ball and Ironclads changed war worldwide v Nationalism has increased numbers and intensity of wars v Technology and nationalism have expanded scope of war v More expensive v More diverse population now participates, suffers v More civilian casualties v Strategy has changed –Power to defeat is the traditional goal –Power to hurt increasingly important

20. 20 Classifying Warfare v Offensive versus defensive: –Not always this simple u Mutual-responsibility warfare (World War I mobilization) u Description of World War I situation u Where does preemptive war fit? u Legitimacy of Bush Doctrine justifying preemptive war in Iraq in 2003 hotly debated v Four categories of international conflict: –Terrorism –Unconventional force –Conventional force –Weapons of mass destruction

21. 21 Terrorism v No widely accepted definition of terrorism v Terrorism is best understood as: –a form of political violence –carried out by individuals, by NGOs, or by relatively small groups of covert government agents –specifically targeting civilians –using clandestine attack methods –having the power to harm people and create fear by targeting civilians an damaging facilities, and systems involved in transportation, trade, and energy production. –as an effort to influence domestic and global politics and the foreign policies of targeted nation

22. 22 Important Objections to This Understanding of Terrorism v Can noble ends justify terrorist means? –In other words, is one man’s terrorist another man’s freedom fighter? –Do the ends ever justify the means? –How important is the intent? v Can actions taken by uniformed military force be classified as terrorism? –When are military actions not acceptable, under any circumstances?

23. 23 Sources of Terrorism State terrorism: Carried out directly by an established government; clandestine operators Carried out directly by an established government; clandestine operators National governments and leaders are held responsible National governments and leaders are held responsible Transnational terrorism: Carried out by international nongovernmental groups al Qaeda most famous example

24. 24 Terrorist Weapons and Tactics v Conventional weapons of terrorism: –Many terrorist attacks still use guns and bombs –9/11 tactics fit this category –Suicide car, truck, and body carrying bombs and explosives targeting public transportation systems and "soft targets" such as discotheques v Radiological terrorism: –The use of nuclear weapons is unlikely, but the use of a “dirty bomb” or destroying a nuclear power plant are much more realistic v Chemical and biological terrorism: –Need to be concerned: Chemical weapons have been used before (Tokyo subway) –Need to remain calm: Increased awareness, vigilance, and security measures with this form of terrorism in recent years

25. 25 Causes of Terrorism v System-level analysis: –Product of the global unequal distribution of wealth v State-level analysis: –Result of national alliances that breed tension v Individual-level of analysis: –Driven by human nature, by psychology, and by an individual’s personal experiences

26. 26 Causes of Terrorism, continued v Terrorism continues because it is effective and is often seen as the only option v Important role of globalization and spreading technology–with both weapons and communications v Seen as a low-risk, cost-effective, and potentially high-yield means of winning useful tactical objectives, such as massive publicity, freeing of political prisoners, and so on

27. 27 Combating Terrorism v Current emphasis is on diplomacy, intelligence gathering, national law enforcement, and military actions v Not much focus on addressing the root causes of terrorism, such as poverty alleviation and economic development –Major criticism of U.S. “war on terror”

28. 28 Unconventional Force v Arms transfers: Destination and sources –Mostly to LDCs/Mostly from EDCs –Can help LDCs meet defense needs and boost the economy of EDCs v Arms transfers: Drawbacks –Cost –Increased risk of regional violence and warfare, sparking a regional arms race among nations –Maintaining authoritarian governments in power, –Potential to face one’s own weapons

29. 29 Unconventional Force: Special Operations v Include overtly and covertly sending one’s special operation forces (SOFs), intelligence operatives, or paramilitary agents v Small-unit activities, such as commando operations and intelligence gathering v Increased use of SOFs by U.S. government since 9/11 including in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Iran v Rumsfeld proposed loose rule sets for these “trigger pullers”—probably a smart call v Risks: possible escalation (Vietnam, Afghanistan)

30. 30 Conventional Force v Overt and coercive military intervention v Norm throughout most of history v Involves uniformed military personnel, usually in large numbers

31. 31 Conventional Force: Goals and Conduct v War is part of diplomacy, not a substitute for it v War should be governed by political, not military, considerations v War should be fought with clear political goals v Avoid unchecked escalation

32. 32 The Dangers of Escalation: Standards to Avoid Unchecked Escalation v Keep lines of communication open v Limit goals v Restrict geographic scope v Observe target restrictions v Limit weapons used

33. 33 Warfare with “Weapons of Mass Destruction” v Term invented after 1937 German Condor Legion bombing of Guernica v Includes nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons v 1972 Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) bans all production, possession, and uses of biological weapons, but they still pose a serious threat v Chemical weapons are the most prevalent because they are relatively easy and inexpensive to produce

34. 34 Nuclear Weapons v Although the number of nuclear weapons has declined since the end of the Cold War, a huge number of powerful nuclear weapons exist in numerous states v Russia and the United States remain the nuclear Goliaths v China, France, Great Britain, India, and Pakistan all openly possess nuclear weapons v Iran, North Korea, and Israel have undeclared nuclear weapons v Debate over ease of construction/Iranian capability*

35. 35 The Role of Nuclear Weapons v Backdrop of power and influence v Deterrence v Actual use–What are some possible paths? –Irrational leader –Calculated attack –Last gasp nuclear war –Inadvertent nuclear war –Escalation –Terrorist group obtains a nuclear device

36. 36 Nuclear Deterrence, Non- proliferation and Strategy v Three main issues: –How to minimize the chance of nuclear war? –How to maximize the chance of survival if nuclear exchange does occur? –How to persuade nuclear nations that are not signatories or not in compliance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to secure their nuclear materials and technologies from the grasp of terrorist organizations?

37. 37 Deterrence v Persuading the enemy that attacking you is not worth the cost –Capability and credibility are critical –Mutual assured destruction (MAD) u Deterrence through punishment –Nuclear Utilization Theory (NUT) u Deterrence through damage denial or limitation

38. 38 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Strategies v Economic and humanitarian assistance to non-compliant nuclear nations and "rogue states" in exchange for these nations agreeing to dismantle their nuclear weapons programs and submit to international inspections of facilities by IAEA v Provision of technical assistance to non-compliant or "rogue" nuclear nations to assist in dismantling and securing of nuclear weapons, material, and technology v Diplomatic agreements to provide peaceful nuclear technology to these rogue nuclear nations in exchange for their agreement to halt and dismantle nuclear weapons programs

39. 39 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Strategies v Imposition of economic sanctions against "rogue nuclear nations" that refuse to comply with the non- proliferation provisions of the NPT v Removal of economic sanctions against nations that agree to give up their nuclear weapons programs v Enhanced on-site inspections of nuclear weapons facilities by the IAEA v Threats of possible military strikes against nuclear facilities of "rogue states"

40. 40 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Strategies v All of the previously mentioned strategies in play as the U.S., EU, IAEA, and Russia negotiate with Iran over its nuclear weapons program v All of the previously mentioned strategies under consideration or implemented as U.S., China, Russia, South Korea, and Japan negotiate with North Korea over the fate of its nuclear weapons program v Combination of international diplomatic, economic, technological incentives and sanctions convinced Libya to abandon its nuclear weapons program in 2003

41. 41 Nuclear Strategy v The first-use option v Missile defense systems—Israel, U.S.

42. Chapter Objectives: Checklist After reading this chapter, students should be able to: v 1. Identify reasons for studying war and summarize the hu­man record of war, including the incidence, death toll, frequency, and severity. v 2. Discuss the causes of war by applying the three levels of analysis: system, state, and individual. v 3. Discuss how the nature of war has changed as a result of nationalism, technology, and changes in strategies. v 4. Be able to identify the different types of war. v 5. Discuss the nature, limits, sources, and record of terrorism, as well as terrorist weapons and tactics, causes of terrorism, and combating terrorism. v 6. Understand unconventional warfare, including the benefits and drawbacks of arms transfers and special operations. v 7. Define and describe the goals and conduct of war, as well as ways to avoid unchecked escalation. v 8. Analyze the role of biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons in warfare. v 9. Discuss how a nuclear war may start. v 10. Understand nuclear deterrence and nuclear strategy. 42