1. Bonn, 16 October 20031 Climate Risk and Early Warning Integrating all of the factors of disaster risk, across time scales of days to decades Second International Conference on Early Warning, Bonn, Germany, 16-18 October, 2003 Reid Basher International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) and UN Inter-Agency Secretariat for the ISDR IRI

2. Bonn, 16 October 20032 Risk as the focus Risk = the negative outcomes faced by people, enterprises, governments – this is the target of early warning All time scales – rapid events, seasonal changes, and long term trends All sources of risk – social, economic, ecological, not just the hazard

3. Bonn, 16 October 20033 Multiple factors compound the risk Why have climate-related disasters increased ? Ineffective early warning Development pressure Lack of knowledge Minimal public services Inadequate leadership Population exposed Climatic hazards Poverty Environmental degradation Risk!

4. Bonn, 16 October 20034 Understanding based on spirit world or religious teachings Early warning in hands of spiritual leaders, often linked to omens Often strong fatalism, with disasters as punishment or acts of the divine Changing views of climate (1): The pre-science era is still with us

5. Bonn, 16 October 20035 Changing views of climate (2): The stability and statistics era, 19C onward Climate seen as stable and stationary Details revealed by long series of data Disasters as statistical, probabilistic events (e.g. the hundred year flood) Powerful basis for risk management and early warning

6. Bonn, 16 October 20036 Changing views of climate (3): The global climate system era, post 1970 Satellites show whole Earth, with swirling, chaotic climate system Computers allow models of the climate system - atmosphere and oceans interacting El Niño system revealed, seasonal forecasts, global monitoring, global early warning

7. Bonn, 16 October 20037 Changing views of climate (4): Current era of change and uncertainty Human, GHG-induced climate change Natural fluctuations, e.g. 1970s Sahel Uncertainty and fear about future changes, disasters a major concern High stakes, growing human vulnerability A greater need for early warning and foresight

8. Bonn, 16 October 20038 Reducing seasonal risks MOS CORRECTED OBSERVATION Kenya, Oct-Nov-Dec season Seasonal forecasts are getting better Give outlook on chances of drought or high rainfall Measured rainfall versus seasonal prediction ECHAM4 model (correlation coefficient = 0.8)

9. Bonn, 16 October 20039 Early warning of other risk factors How can we provide early warning and foresight of … Declining environmental state? Risk-raising development projects? Communications and capacity weaknesses? Economics, markets (e.g. food supplies & prices)? Trends in migration, conflict, health vulnerability?

10. Bonn, 16 October 200310 Early warning - for risk reduction Element Day-Week-Month-Year-Decade Weather, tides, floods, soils XXXX XXX Reservoirs, snow pack XXXXXXXX People exposed, conflict, migration XXXXXX Crop production, food prices XXXXXX Food reserves, food aid XXXXXX Environmental management XXXXXXXX Industry, urban, infrastructure design XXXXXXX Land use planning XXXXXX

11. Bonn, 16 October 200311 Integrated approach to early warning Events – Monitor, analyze, predict storms, floods, drought, etc. Impact – Surveillance and interpretation of food supply and prices, reservoir storage, migration, etc Vulnerability – Analysis and summary of trends in environmental and socio-economic factors Policies – Scenario analysis of disaster impacts of current and proposed policies and projects

12. Bonn, 16 October 200312 Conclusion Integrating early warning into policy …. Requires strong awareness of multiple factors in disasters, plus ability to bridge organizational gaps Better addresses the problem of growing disasters and the issue of global change Expands the role and toolkit of early warning – building on existing technical capabilities