1. Climate Change, Energy, and Security NS4053 week 8

2. Agenda Uncertainty? – Scientific consensus about trend, but uncertainty about speed and tempo. Type of security concerns? – Adaptation – Consequence management Policy responses? Implications for energy security

3. Uncertainty? Little uncertainty over direction of change. – Statistical analysis of data on climate. Some uncertainty over speed of change. – Wide variety of sources and models on data. – Intended for scientific purposes, not for forecasting or to help politicians make decisions. Lots of uncertainty over when catastrophic events will occur.

4. Energy, Security, and Climate Change Scientific consensus is that fossil fuel use, particularly coal and oil used in power and transportation, is a major contributor to climate change. Major policy prescription is to reduce the impact: – Reduce use of fossil fuels – Increase efficiency in use of fossil fuels – Decrease the byproducts of fossil fuel use theorized to contribute to climate change Implications for energy security are mixed.

5. Temperature anomalies (degrees)

6. Temperature anomalies (SD)

7. Types of climate change issues Not just delta in temperatures – Ocean chemistry and impact on bio systems. – Decline in polar ice caps. – Increase in number and duration of droughts. – Increased frequency of extreme weather events. Concern over rate of change and potential for acceleration. Short term challenges of responding to sudden changes, long term challenges of adaptation.

8. Consequence management concerns Extreme climate events shift roles for defense forces. – Military support to civilian authorities role becomes more important? – Consequential for budgets, planning and programs? – Consequential for forces most exposed to consequences of climate change? International emergency response and relief roles become more prominent?

9. Adaptation concerns Population support – Water and food – Health – Energy Human security – Migration – Armed conflict Governance – State viability – Economic viability

10. Most vulnerable countries

11. Why Africa?

13. Water dependence in Africa

15. Role of environmental policy (Hepburn) Case of both market failure and government failure. So what should government focus on? – Provide accurate information about national-level costs of climate change. – Internalizing costs of climate change in economy so that producers and end-users get prices right. – Establishing stable rules of the game. – Getting risk allocation in rules of the game right.

16. Policy tools ‘Wait and see’ Internalize climate change costs – Create markets – Regulate sources Market facilitation (information) Stimulate technological development Ease economic adaptation Pursue international coordinated response

17. Defense Science Board 2011 recommendations White House OSTP – Identify gaps in climate data – Encourage efforts to relate scientific data on climate to societal impact outcomes. NOAA/NASA – Low cost/high reliability launch vehicles for civilian science/climate observations. DNI – Climate change > human security > national security? – Develop indicators

18. Defense Science Board 2011 recommendations NSC – Coordinate whole of government approach DoD – Continued focus on MSCA and emergency response to catastrophic weather – Adapt security cooperation efforts to include climate issues, esp. water. Enhance partner resilience. – Conflict avoidance/shaping efforts. – Focus on Africa as region at high risk. – Littoral risk assessment and adaptation.

19. Implications for energy security Core policy is to reduce use of fossil fuels and associated emissions. Benefits to energy security: – Greater focus on efficiency. – Switch to cleaner burning natural gas abundant in North America. – More regionally focused economy (North America and Western Hemisphere) where security risks are lower. Cons for security in general.

20. Final thoughts Already successful states: – Cost to address/mitigate climate change – Competition for capital with other states – Magnets for migration – Looked to for aid and disaster response Less developed states: – Varying impact of climate change. Poor governance increases risks. Lower ability to adapt, esp. in agricultural economies Trans-nationalization of conflicts over water, resources, migration. – Less able to manage uncertainty?