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Copyright © OSS Open Access INFORMATION OPERATIONS: All Information, All Languages, All the Time The New Semantics of War & Peace, Wealth & Democracy Authors.

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Presentation on theme: "Copyright © OSS Open Access INFORMATION OPERATIONS: All Information, All Languages, All the Time The New Semantics of War & Peace, Wealth & Democracy Authors."— Presentation transcript:

1 Copyright © OSS Open Access INFORMATION OPERATIONS: All Information, All Languages, All the Time The New Semantics of War & Peace, Wealth & Democracy Authors Briefing Robert David Steele Vivas MA MPA NWC USMC CIA OSS

2 Copyright © OSS Open Access Third Title in Series Edited Work Works in Progress: 2007 Commercial Intelligence by Mats Bjore (Gray Book) 2007 Peacekeeping Intelligence Edited with Col Jan-Inge Svensson of Sweden 2008 Information Peacekeeping by Steele (UN Blue Book)

3 Copyright © OSS Open Access Highlights Foreword by Congressman Rob Simmons Technical Preface by Dr. Robert Garigue Connects Strategic IO with Tactical GWOT Defines Six IO-Heavy Mission Areas Summarizes the Information Challenges Provides Strategic Concept for M4IS Defines OSIS-X as a Global Solution Provides Annotated Reality Bibliography

4 Copyright © OSS Open Access Why Now? Information Operations Roadmap 2003 –Excellent idea, incomplete, needs heart, must transform IO from bullshit to beliefsdeception & manipulation are TIRED. Truth is WIRED. –STRATCOM has potential if it turns away from beltway bandit pathologies USDI dared to want it alltruly inspiring & transformational SOCOM demonstrated totality of the pit, paucity of intelligence alone CISCO showed growth of machine speed information creation and interchangeno one Nation, however rich, can get a grip all alone CENTCOM makes Multinational Information Operations a possibility L-3 Tampa identified & integrated key enablers –Machine translation for screening not reading –Advanced analytics for early warning & predictive analysis Everything that could go wrong, is going wrong… Information Operations could and should save the Republic –Tools for Truth, Sharing of Truth = Informed Democracy –Transparency & Sharing Kill Corruption, Nurture Moral Capitalism –Global Indigenous Legitimate Wealth through Information Sharing is the ONLY Stabilizing Factor that is Affordable, Sustainable, and Attainable

5 Copyright © OSS Open Access The Strategic Objective The DoD Global Information Coverage program, under the leadership of USSTRATCOM and in support of the COCOMs and all DoD policy, acquisition, and operations leaders, will: 1.Correctly assess the nature of the global conflict. 2.Understand the strategic environment within which this global conflict is taking place. 3.Identify and address the centers of gravity; most non-military. 4.Understand and address all facets of US, coalition, and hostile party legitimacy. 5.Provide information helpful to fostering global inter- agency and coalition campaigns. 6. Provide metrics for measuring IO inputs, outputs, and outcomes at all four levels of analysis (strategic, operational, tactical, and technical) 7. Provide predictive analysis to stop second-generation terrorism while stabilizing & reconstructing the world. Dr. Col (Ret) Max Manwaring MaxMax

6 Copyright © OSS Open Access Six IO-Heavy Mission Areas Seven Communities of Interest 1.Strategic Communication & Public Diplomacy 2.Peacekeeping Intelligence & Information Peacekeeping 3.Early Warning & Stabilization- Reconstruction Operations 4.Homeland Defense & Civil Support 5.National Education & National Research (Defense-Related) 6.Defense Acquisition & Logistics (Build-Buy-Bring)

7 Copyright © OSS Open Access Congressman Simmons General Schoomaker got it in 1997 (SOC) General Kernan got it in 2000 (NATO) 40 countries ahead of US Dr. Stephen Cambone (USDI) has it right! –Universal coverage, 24/7, all languages, neighborhood levels of granularity Four key points: –100 year six front total war demands IO++ –Sharing rather than secrecy wins –Need national Open Source Agency –Need Open Source Software solutions For affordable state & local sharing For affordable NGO/coalition sharing IO is central to DoD mission and HS Need IO architecture to educate citizens and also collect bottom up defensive dots R-CT-02, 3 rd Term HASC, Homeland Security Chairman, Subcommittee on Intelligence, Information Sharing, and Terrorism Risk Assessment

8 Copyright © OSS Open Access Dr. Robert Garigue, Canada Computers create and destroy knowledge Computers are in their infancy Three forms of IW: –Physical IWdenial of service –Syntactical IWcorruption & confusion –Semantic IWbelief systems IO creates organizational efficacy Knowledge can deter conflict and create stabilizing wealthultimate source of power Data is getting smartcomes with attributes Data with history & context more valuable IP is about belief systemsundermining bad ones and reinforcing good ones IO = IW + IP, killing bad sites is not enough Need to Ramp Up IP and spread good ideas World Brain is a RealityWe Need to Grow Up VP for Information Integrity and Chief Security Executive Bell Canada Created the IW framework for the Canadian forces (LtCdr RN) Chairman of the Government of Canada Council for Information Protection Chairman of the Canadian Financial Information Security Executives

9 Copyright © OSS Open Access Authors Preface (Bottom Line) Inter-agency sharing of non- secrets more important than secrets for the President Unclassified information on beliefs, reality, operations, logistics more important than secret technical information Modern IO is about Global Coverage, 24/7 that leads to sharing, understanding, foresight and crafting of BUDGETS & BEHAVIOR that make sense and achieve desired outcomes in near, mid, and long-term. PEACE & PROSPERITY are not easythey require ethical constant thought & application. 30 years overseas as son of oilman, USMC infantry officer, spy, and intelligence coach Created Marine Corps Intelligence Command #1 Amazon reviewer of global issues books

10 Copyright © OSS Open Access DigitalAnalogOral/Unpublished English Language Foreign Languages* *33 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages, and twelve critical Arabic dialects we do not do well at all. NSA FBIS UN/STATE Cascading Deficiencies: 1) Dont even try to access most information 2) Cant process hard-copy into digital 3) Cant translate most of what we collect CIA/DO NRO Global Secret Intelligence Failure Breakdown in Collection and Understanding

11 Copyright © OSS Open Access 50%Less Costly More Satisfying SIGINT OSINT 0% 50% HUMINT IMINT MASINT STATE Does Not Exist Global Total Processing Failure Breakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination

12 Copyright © OSS Open Access HUMINTSIGINTIMINTMASINT ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE 5% of cost80% of value 95% of cost20% of value This is a common-sense contrast we can exploit!

13 Copyright © OSS Open Access Baseball Analogy Harnessing the Power of the Crowd OSINT HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT

14 Copyright © OSS Open Access QDR 2006 Shift in Focus OLD –State-based threats –State-on-state combat –One force for all –Reactive –Static garrison forces –Battle-ready –One major conflict –Stovepiped services –Focus on hardware –User finds data –US military does it all –DoD rules the roost NEW –Transnational networks –Safe havens within states –Tailored deterrence options –Proactive preventive action –Mobile, expeditionary –Battle-hardened –Multiple irregular operations –Joint/coalition operations –Focus on knowledge/intelligence –Data finds user (CISCO AON) –Deep coalition partnerships –Inter-agency campaigns

15 Copyright © OSS Open Access Understanding the Threat Big War is 10% Probable, Takes 90% of $ USMC knew all this in 1988 QDR 2006 is 18 years late but finally!! Four threats require: –Four mind-sets –Four forces –Four strategies –Four campaigns Unity of Effort (both inter-agency & coalition/non-governmental organization) is not possible without a Global Common Operational Picture (GCOP) that is NOT Secret! Sharing, not secrecy, is the operative principle for unity/victory US Industrial-Congressional corruption is our worst enemy, blocks change

16 Copyright © OSS Open Access New Strategy: 1 + iii: Need better balance within national security. 50% 15% 20% 15% 250B vs. 400B 75B vs 20B 100B vs. 20B 75B vs. 32B CINCWARCINCSOLICCINCPEACECINCHOME Strategic NBCSmall WarsState/USIAIntelligence Big War(s)ConstabularyPeace CorpsBorder Patrol Ground TruthEconomic AidPort Security 1iii Electronic Reserve Environment Public HealthPeace Navy

17 Copyright © OSS Open Access Understanding the Real World 100-year 6-front total war Arabic, Aramaic, Berber, Catelan, Chinese, Danish, Dari, Dutch, English, Farsi, Finnish, French, German, Indonesian, Irish, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Kurdish, Kurmanji, Norwegian, Pashto, Polish, Portuguese, Russian, Serbian, Spanish, Swedish, Tamil, Turkish, Urduminimal mandatory Arabic variations: Andalusi Arabic (extinct, but important role in literary history); Egyptian Arabic (Egypt) considered the most widely understood and used "second dialect"; Gulf Arabic (Gulf coast from Kuwait to Oman, and minorities on the other side); Hassaniiya (in Mauritania); Hijazi Arabic; Iraqi Arabic; Levantine Arabic (Syrian, Lebanese, Palestinian, and western Jordanian); Maghreb Arabic (Tunisian, Algerian, Moroccan, and western Libyan); Maltese; Najdi Arabic; Sudanese Arabic (with a dialect continuum into Chad); and Yemeni Arabic.Andalusi Arabic Egyptian ArabicGulf ArabicHassaniiya Hijazi ArabicIraqi ArabicLevantine ArabicMaghreb ArabicMalteseNajdi Arabic Sudanese ArabicYemeni Arabic You either get with the program or lose.

18 Copyright © OSS Open Access Neighborhoods, Not Nations This is the level of analysis for the long war The other rules are in THE NEW CRAFT OF INTELLIGENCE.

19 Copyright © OSS Open Access Modern Analysis 101 Absent this model, it is not possible to be effective at integrated long-term analysis.

20 Copyright © OSS Open Access Modern Analysis 102 We need to stop wasting money on costly US butts in seats lacking deep historical, cultural, linguistic, or real-life foreign area expertise. Its time to get serious about global psycho-social analysis in depth. We cannot do it alonewe must go to multinational IO in full collaboration with all relevant NGOs.

21 Copyright © OSS Open Access Situational Awareness We Geo-Tag, RDF, OWL, & SOAP Everything Used with permission. XML-Geo RDF OWL SOAP OHS* And a few other things the beltway bandits have not thought about….. * Open Hyperdocument System from Doug Englebartallows citation analysis linkage at the paragraph level, and copyright compensation at the micro-cash level.


23 Copyright © OSS Open Access OLD PARADIGM NEW PARADIGM # = Your Top Issues, Local, National, Global You Are Here... 1 2 3 Far Future Near Future Present Historical Memory

24 Copyright © OSS Open Access OLD PARADIGM NEW PARADIGM Reality-Based Behavior & Budgets You Are Here... 1 2 3 Gaming Future ROIs Foreign Viewpoints Reality Public Memory Secrecy rules Elites rules Act on 2% of the info. People complacent Short-term view Unilateral militarism Immoral capitalism Big stick works BUT Long-term cost not visible to public

25 Copyright © OSS Open Access The Information Marketplace Threat Public Diplomacy & Strategic Communication Budget Acquisition of Right Stuff at Right Time Policy IC & USG State & Local Corporations Foreign Governments & NGOs OSIS-X Policy World Client World Budget not based on threat. Only a fraction of clients are served.

26 Copyright © OSS Open Access Status of the Tribes Today We Must Transfer Proven Legal Ethical Decision- Support (Intelligence) Process to All National 50% Military 40% Business 30% Academic 30% Law Enforcement 20% NGO-Media 20% Religious 20% We have much to do.

27 Copyright © OSS Open Access

28 Success Story: Dutch OSINT Surface web is NOT the Internet (Deep web plus) Email matters more than www Books down, still matter as history Merging with Internet CISCO IPICS Converts Tactical Radio to Digital Packets

29 Copyright © OSS Open Access Success Story: Swedish OSINT Began with one Maj (today LtCol), today fills up a basement in storage and aggregate sense- making software Works in all languages, manages global cover stories, gets technical information directly from all manufacturers including Chinese and Russians

30 Copyright © OSS Open Access Success Story: South African OSINT First to combine appreciation of both open source software as affordable, and open source intelligence as trust building measure Only leader of a continent-wide early warning and open source information sharing system

31 Copyright © OSS Open Access Success Story: UK OSINT Started with just one detective constable Leveraged global network of pro bono advisors, many met at OSS.Net conferences Cut cost of finding terrorist hide-outs from L3000/day to L30 in an hour by using OSINT

32 Copyright © OSS Open Access Peace & Prosperity Can Be Achieved By Changing When & How We Intervene Public warning can change public policy –More Prevention –More Peacekeeping –More Education –More Long-Term Aid –Less Corruption –Less Censorship We have a sacred duty. Between OSIS-X and MIOCs, World Brain is Possible

33 Copyright © OSS Open Access New Craft of Intelligence I Lessons of History II Global Coverage III National Intelligence IV Spies & Secrecy China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc. Cost-Sharing with Others-- Shared Early Warning Narrowly focused! Harness distributed intelligence of Nation

34 Copyright © OSS Open Access Information for All Four Levels Strategic Planning Operational Coordination Tactical Employment Acquisition Design History Context Current Awareness Key Personalities/Motivators Imagery & Image Maps Translation Support Strategic Generalizations Critical Technologies This is about information superiority across the board, not just enhancing all- source intelligence!

35 Copyright © OSS Open Access SECRET BIG DATA NSA-NGA SAIC HARRIS NG-MS NOT SECRET BIG DATA UN, Red Cross, NGOs… NASA, public geospatial Factiva LEXIS-NEXIS SECRET DISTRIBUTED DATA Intelink ARDA ITIC JHU/APL NOT SECRET DISTRIBUTED DATA CISCO Google/Libraries Amazon Inside the Book Napster Plus Open Source Information System – External (OSIS-X) SIPRNETSIPRNET

36 Copyright © OSS Open Access OSIS-X (Global Nations, Organizations, & Individuals) GPS RFID-X (All Devices, People, Locations) Intelink-X USA Earns Nobels Across S&T Funded by DoD, Fed By OSIS-X USA DGI, GIC, GSC World Intelligence Network General Al Gray: Communications without intelligence is noise; intelligence without communications is irrelevant. Peter Drucker (paraphrase): Weve spent 50 years on the T in IT, now it is time we spent 50 years on the I in IT. Side Benefit: Provides USG with global cultural and educational leverage at home and abroad Side Benefit: Conflict Deterrence & Resolution via Early Warning & Information Peacekeeping DGI: Director of Global Information GIC: Global Intelligence Council GSC: Global Strategy Council

37 Copyright © OSS Open Access $1B/Yr 3 $111B/Yr 10 Pay with information Pay with cash & information DoD $250M/Yr 1 $500M/Yr 2 $1B/Yr 3 $1B is half what USDI was prepared to authorize at FOC for OSINT alone. We go for JOICs, OSINT, & integrated man-machine Foreign Language Conversion in a coherent manner that creates added value for each contract, a compelling sales point and a barrier to entry for our competitors who miss the big picture. 1PB/Yr 1 5 PB/Yr 2 10 PB/Yr 3 Goal is all UN information including field reports in real time, beginning with complex PKI of DoD interest and networking of all NGO eyes & ears on the ground. USG 10X DoD with 1-3 year lag time. U.S. Based Corporations OMB pursuing common solutions approach. We give them our model, funded by DoD, for all of USG with NORTHCOM as hinge and DHS as the ultimate beneficiary. The language capability can help us capture 911 now. Most of them dont get it yetstuck in IT or KM, internally focused. Spending $15B a year now on data mining and related IT-driven ideas. Two tracks: one with our team members and their best big clients, the other commoditizing for small businesses. Education Everywhere All Levels Any institution agreeing to upload the bulk of its open research information including all student dissertations to OSIS-X gets access to OSIS-X and to the toolkit (registering for the toolkit recruits the individual mind by name into the global network. All students everywhere are on tap, not just for knowledge creation, but for direct observation and nuanced evaluation. Later this allows us to change the educational paradigm to mix distance leaning, on-demand tutorials, help buttons for any task, and social networking as needed. Above the cash line, we focus on restoring education and research as the engines for wealth production through knowledge creation. Below the cash line, we focus on intellectual property creation, management, exploitation. Law Enforcement Beginning with Interpol and drilling down locally in all countries, we give them OSIS-X free to obtain privacy OK & protection world-wide. GWOT data benefits. United Nations All NGOs, World Bank, IMF Journalists We get their organizations to pay for access, but we find a way to recruit them as individuals to meet our client needs on the side. Labor Unions & Religions Citizens & Advocacy Groups Its no longer about the collection of information or the communication of information. The next big thing is about the connection of dots to dots, dots to people, and people to people. We do this with an intelligent network and a focus on semantic web/synthetic information architecture technology, and the empowerment of individuals so that they can create and share knowledge in real time without organizational, legal, security, cultural, or language impediments. The next slide shows the OSS value concept, the I side of the IT equation. SANITIZED

38 Copyright © OSS Open Access Focus of Global Effort Strategic Forecasting 10% Need, 40% Cost Primary Research & Experts on Demand 20% Need, 30% Cost Help Desk (Tell Me More Right Now) 30% Need, 20% Cost Daily/Weekly Reports 40% Need, 10% Cost Shared Among Tribes Partial Sharing Tribal Secret Top Secret This extraordinary depiction is from Jan Herring, one of the top ten I look up to.

39 Copyright © OSS Open Access OPG VPN Weekly Review Expert Forum Distance Learning Virtual Library Shared Calendar Virtual Budget Shared 24/7 Plot Shared Rolodex Teams Crossing All Boundaries

40 Copyright © OSS Open Access Inter-Agency Collaboration SOJICC J-2J-3 J-1 MP J-5 CA J-4 Eng J-6 IT CGR2 INTELLIGENCE CLUSTER 80% Unclassified Information NGO CLUSTER LEA CLUSTER SERVICE CLUSTER CIVIL CLUSTER COALITION CLUSTER ????????

41 Copyright © OSS Open Access

42 OVERVIEW Start with an overview of what is happening in general in you regional area.

43 Copyright © OSS Open Access FOCUS ON A COUNTRY – VIEW 360 Start with an overview of what is happening in general in your assigned country

44 Copyright © OSS Open Access FOCUS ON AN ORGANIZATION See specifics of people, places, etcetera with frequency of mention

45 Copyright © OSS Open Access FOCUS ON A PERSON Photos, Quotations, Links to Others, Key Details

46 Copyright © OSS Open Access GET NEW INSIGHTS This is the only global information service that integrates sources with tools

47 Copyright © OSS Open Access READ IN DEPTH, IN CONTEXT Anything can be sent to the scrapbook where other tools can be applied

48 Copyright © OSS Open Access Teen-Agers are Center of Gravity Faith Matters-Zealotry Kills World War III will be fought in the hearts and minds of teen-agers Half the brainthe half that can understand other viewsdies by the age of 35 Morality self-directs between the ages of 25 and 35thats when the brain matures Faith mattersnot ideological zealotry, but a belief in the Golden Rule and respect for cultural and religious paths chosen by others over the course of centuries.

49 Copyright © OSS Open Access Book on Sale Now Amazon will sell you this book for $34.95. OSS.Net will provide it by the case of 16 at 25% discount. War colleges may but the book at 50% discount for orders of 100 or more books. Same terms for the other books in the series.

50 Copyright © OSS Open Access Spread the Word Robert David Steele Vivas CEO, OSS.Net, Inc. Intelligence Coach CALL for email (unlisted) CALL for email (public) 703.242.1700 voice 703.242.1711 fax Use MoveOn.Org OSINT topic to self-organize everywhere in the world Author will speak for sushi.

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