1. 1 Policy Issues in US Corrections: The California Template Llad Phillips University of California Santa Barbara To be presented at Oxford Round Table March 27, 2006

2. 2 The Issue The high rate of imprisonment in the United StatesThe high rate of imprisonment in the United States –Why did it not fall when the crime rate came down?

3. 3 The Analysis California exhibits the same pattern: crime rates falling but imprisonment rates staying highCalifornia exhibits the same pattern: crime rates falling but imprisonment rates staying high –California accounts for about one eighth of all prisoners under state jurisdiction in the US –California has extensive historical data that describes the operation of the correctional system over time

4. 4 The Story Prison system staffing responded to a higher inflow of new felons committed to prison from court.Prison system staffing responded to a higher inflow of new felons committed to prison from court. Parole staffing lagged behind.Parole staffing lagged behind. –The higher caseload for parole officers motivated them to return a higher fraction of parolees to prison

5. 5 The Phenomenon, P. 2

6. 6 Another View

7. 7 National Crime Victimization Survey, 2004

8. 8 Conceptual Framework, p. 4 Prisoners 163,939 Discharged & Died 42,483 Felons Newly Admitted from Court 46,798 Felon First Releases to Parole 58,994 Felons Re-paroled 55,866 Felon Parole Violators Returned to Custody: 58,712 Parolees 113,768 Discharges & Deaths 4,324 Escapes 122 Parolees At Large 19,056 Absconded 40,758 Felon Parole Violators with a New Term 17,842 Reinstated 32,090 Figure 2: Schematic of Prison & Parole Stocks and Flows: 2004

9. 9 Model of CJS, Perfect Efficiency No Revolving Door California Population Felon New Admissions from Court Per Capita Prison Population; Time in Prison Before First Release Parole Population; Time on Parole Before Discharge Discharges; 1/Total Time

10. 10 Stocks and Flows, p. 5 Prisoners Plus Parolees Outflow from CJS(t) = k CJS *[Prisoners+ Parolees](t-1)Outflow from CJS(t) = k CJS *[Prisoners+ Parolees](t-1) –Total Time in CJS = (1/k CJS )* = [Pris. + Par.]/Discharges Equilibrium:Equilibrium: –Outflow of Discharges = Inflow of New Admissions –Total Time in CJS = (1/k CJS )* =[Pris. + Par.]/New Admits

11. 11 Stocks and Flows, p. 5 Prisoners Outflow from Prison(t) = k PRIS *Prisoners(t-1)Outflow from Prison(t) = k PRIS *Prisoners(t-1) –Time in Prison = 1/k PRIS = Outflow/Prisoners Equilibrium: outflow = inflowEquilibrium: outflow = inflow –Time in Prison = 1/k PRIS = Inflow/Prisoners

12. 12 Model of CJS, Inefficiency California Population Felon New Admissions from Court Per Capita Prison Population; Time in Prison Before First Release Parole Population; Time on Parole Before Discharge Discharges; 1/Total Time Probability of Moving from CA Pop. To CJS = Felon New Admissions Per Capita Probability of Moving from CJS to CA Pop. = 1/Total Time

13. 13 Time in Prison, p. 9

14. 14 Creation of the Revolving Door, p. 11

15. 15 Deteriorating Performance of the California Parole System, p.12 Parole Violators Returned to Custody, PVRTCParole Violators Returned to Custody, PVRTC Parolees Absconding from SupervisionParolees Absconding from Supervision Parolees At Large, PALParolees At Large, PAL Shorter Time on ParoleShorter Time on Parole

16. 16 Time On Parole

17. 17

18. 18 What Caused the Deteriorating Performance of the Parole System?

19. 19 Caseloads: Prison Vs. Parole, p.13

20. 20 What Caused Such High Prison and Parole Populations?, p. 15 The Minimal (Prison + Parole) PopulationThe Minimal (Prison + Parole) Population –Perfect efficiency: no revolving door (Prison + Parole) Pop. = (t(Prison + Parole) Pop. = (t PRIS + t PAR ) * New Admits ? (2004) = (1.67 + 1.39) * 46,812 Prisoners and Parolees (est. 2004) = 143, 245 Prisoners & Parolees (obs. ‘04) = 162,352 + 110,130 = 272,482 Ratio of Actual/Minimal = 1.90

21. 21 Another View: Estimated Time Spent in California Corrections Turning the stock/flow relation aroundTurning the stock/flow relation around Estimated total time = (Prisoners + Parolees)/New AdmitsEstimated total time = (Prisoners + Parolees)/New Admits –Total time includes spins inside the revolving door Estimated total time = (Prisoners + Parolees)/(Discharges From Parole + Deaths)Estimated total time = (Prisoners + Parolees)/(Discharges From Parole + Deaths)

22. 22

23. 23 Where Does the Increase in the Stocks Come From? Inflow or System Inefficiency? [Prisoners + Parolees = New Admits*Total Time] Year Prisoners + Parolees p.c. New Admits p.c. Total Time (years) 20040.007540.0012715.9 19800.001810.0004773.4 ratio 4.17 ~ 2.661.7

24. 24Policy? Source: California Department of Corrections, Historical Trends ….1978-1998, www.corr.ca.gov

25. 25 Prisoners + Parolees = New Admits*Total Time Year Prisoners + Parolees p.c. New Admits p.c. Total Time (years) 20040.007540.0012715.9 19800.001810.0004773.4 ratio 4.17 ~ 2.661.7 2004 @ 1980 Drug Admits % of total 0.0034 0.00100 p. c. 3.4

26. 26 Summary The increase in prison populations is only partly due to increases in new admissions from court, and hence the crime rate.The increase in prison populations is only partly due to increases in new admissions from court, and hence the crime rate. The total time spent cycling back and forth between prison and parole before discharge has increased by 70% between 1980 and 2004.The total time spent cycling back and forth between prison and parole before discharge has increased by 70% between 1980 and 2004. The “war on drugs” has inflated new admissions to prison in 2004 by 25% compared to the policy on imprisoning drug offenders in 1980The “war on drugs” has inflated new admissions to prison in 2004 by 25% compared to the policy on imprisoning drug offenders in 1980

27. 27

28. 28 What Caused Such High Populations of Prisoners and Parolees? New Admissions per capita = new admissions per offense * offenses per capitaNew Admissions per capita = new admissions per offense * offenses per capita –The per capita California Crime Index fell from ~0.04 in 1980 to ~0.02 in 2004

29. 29 It Was Not the Inflow from Court