Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Review of Northern Winter 2010/11

Published by Modified over 9 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Review of Northern Winter 2010/11"— Presentation transcript:

1 Review of Northern Winter 2010/11
Mike Blackburn National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading Seasonal Climate Discussion 15 April 2011

2 Outline UK and Europe surface conditions
Global temperature (distribution and average) Large scale circulation & teleconnections Circulation change in mid-November Tropical Pacific – La Niña

3 UK Mean Temperature anomaly
Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Met Office

4 UK Mean Temperature December: CET -0.7°C anomaly -5.3°C
coldest since 1890 2nd coldest on record (since 1659) Winter (DJF): December dominates CET 2nd coldest since 1996 (2009/10 colder) Met Office

5 UK Precipitation anomaly (%)
Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Met Office

6 UK December 2010 Met Office Chief Scientist’s report to Sir John Beddington, March 2011

7 European surface air temperature
November 2010 December 2010 January 2011 February 2011 Mean temperature anomalies wrt average KNMI, ENSEMBLES E-OBS data

8 European precipitation
November 2010 December 2010 January 2011 February 2011 Anomaly [mm/month] wrt average KNMI, ENSEMBLES E-OBS data

9 Alpine snow Scandinavia Lack of snow after New Year
Warm and dry conditions prevailed through Jan/Feb 2011 Scandinavia Cold + laying snow persisted throughout winter

10 Global surface air temperature (land)
November 2010 December 2010 January 2011 February 2011 KNMI, NCEP/CPC data Mean temperature anomalies wrt average

11 Surface air temperature anomaly
DJF 2009/10 DJF 2010/11 NOAA ESRL

12 Surface air temperature anomaly
December 2009 December 2010 NOAA ESRL

13 Cold mid-latitudes, amid global warmth
“Global temperature is rising as fast in the past decade as in the prior two decades, despite year-to-year fluctuations associated with the El Niño-La Niña cycle of tropical ocean temperature”, Hansen et al (2010) Monthly comparison, 2010 vs. previous years 2010 global average Ts was warmest on record – GISS data Contribution from El Niño – La Niña cycle Cooler in December 2010 NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Hansen et al (2010)

14 NAO - AO - Solar minimum Stratospheric water vapour
Stratospheric vortex QBO east Waves NAM latitude height NAO - Blocking AO - Planetary waves Importance of stratosphere increasingly recognised in last decade -> Include additional forcing processes in extended-range forecast models. Tropical Atlantic PNA Atlantic SST & sea ice Eurasian snow cover (October) El Niño

15 Summary UK and European conditions
Global temperature (distribution and average) Large scale circulation & teleconnections Circulation change in mid-November Tropical Pacific – La Niña

16 250hPa wind and Geopotential Height
Dec. Climatology December 2009 December 2010

17 250hPa vector wind November 2010 December 2010 January 2011
February 2011 NOAA ESRL

18 250hPa geopotential height anomaly
November 2010 December 2010 January 2011 February 2011 NOAA ESRL

19 Teleconnection patterns
North Atlantic Oscillation NAO Z500 Winter 2010/11 Arctic Oscillation AO Pmsl Pacific/North American PNA Z500 NOAA Climate Prediction Center

20 Teleconnection patterns
Winter 2009/10 Winter 2010/11 NOAA Climate Prediction Center

21 Blocking strength (Tibaldi & Monteni index)
Winter 2009/10 Winter 2010/11 NOAA Climate Prediction Center

22 Jet Stream wind / Streamfunction anomaly
December 2009 December 2010

23 Summary UK and European conditions
Global temperature (distribution and average) Large scale circulation & teleconnections Circulation change in mid-November Tropical Pacific – La Niña

24 mid-November circulation change
Beware November monthly averages! Hint that Pacific (PNA) leads Atlantic (NAO) change NOAA Climate Prediction Center

25 Surface air temperature – time evolution
01-30 November 2010 01-14 December 2010 01-15 November 2010 16-30 November 2010

26 250hPa height – hemispheric planetary wave pattern:
weekly averages from early November to mid-December ECMWF analyses, processed at University of Reading

27 250hPa streamfunction – global wave patterns:
weekly averages from through November 2010 ECMWF analyses, processed at University of Reading

28 250hPa streamfunction – precursor pattern for negative NAO:
Woollings et al (2008) 250hPa meridional wind ECMWF analyses, processed at University of Reading

29 Summary UK and European conditions
Global temperature (distribution and average) Large scale circulation & teleconnections Circulation change in mid-November Tropical Pacific – La Niña

30 Niño region SST anomalies
NAO phase Early winter Late winter moderate El Niño + - La Niña NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin

31 El Niño, 2009/10 SST anomaly DJF 09/10 OLR anomaly DJF 09/10
NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin NOAA ESRL

32 La Niña, 2010/11 SST anomaly DJF 10/11 OLR anomaly DJF 10/11
Nino 3.4 / 4 SST similar to previous cold events, but earlier start? NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin NOAA ESRL

33 Tropical SST evolution
NOAA Climate Prediction Center/NCEP

34 2010 SST anomaly (NCEP reanalysis, ESRL)
DJF 09/10 Sept 2010 MAM 2010 Oct 2010 JJA 2010 Nov 2010 NOAA ESRL

35 2010/11 SST anomaly (NCEP reanalysis, ESRL)
Sept 2010 Dec 2010 Oct 2010 Jan 2011 Nov 2010 Feb 2011 NOAA ESRL

36 Tropical evolution NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin
Atmospheric response to SSTs is strong (SOI - mainly Tahiti?) and OLR? NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin

37 Tropical evolution NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin
Trends in low level zonal winds?? NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin

38 Tropical evolution: 5N-5S
NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin

39 Tropical evolution: 5N-5S pentad data
NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin

40 Tropical evolution: 5N-5S pentad data
Weak MJO activity except end of September. Relatively stationary convective and equatorial response to SST NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin

41 OLR anomalies (monthly)
September 2010 December 2010 October 2010 January 2011 November 2010 February 2011 NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin

42 200hPa streamfunction anomalies (monthly)
September 2010 December 2010 October 2010 January 2011 November 2010 February 2011 NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin

43 SST: comparison with previous La Niñas
NOAA ESRL

44 ENSO evolution – previous events
SOI versus Nino 3.4 – DJF - main monsoon season KNMI Climate Explorer

45 ENSO evolution – previous events
SOI versus Nino 3.4 – SON - pre-monsoon KNMI Climate Explorer

46 Conclusions / Summary Second cold winter in Europe & across mid-latitudes …but warmer late winter in Europe Cold onset: mid-November circulation change …possible trigger from (tropical) Pacific Strong La Niña, throughout (northern) Autumn + Winter …large scale response varies through season Similarities to and differences from 2009/10 winter

47 - questions? -

48 2010 SST anomaly (NCEP reanalysis, ESRL)
Sept Oct Nov. 1-15 Nov Dec. 1-15 Dec NOAA ESRL

Download ppt "Review of Northern Winter 2010/11"

Similar presentations

Large-scale context for the UK floods in Summer 2007 Submitted to Weather, 14 May 2008 Mike Blackburn 1 John Methven 2 and Nigel Roberts 3 (1) National.

Large-scale context for the UK floods in Summer 2007 Submitted to Weather, 14 May 2008 Mike Blackburn 1 John Methven 2 and Nigel Roberts 3 (1) National.
Ocean’s Role in the Stratosphere-Troposphere Interaction Yulia A. Zyulyaeva Moscow State University P.P.Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, RAS, Moscow 1/17.

Ocean’s Role in the Stratosphere-Troposphere Interaction Yulia A. Zyulyaeva Moscow State University P.P.Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, RAS, Moscow 1/17.
Seasonal to decadal prediction of the Arctic Oscillation D. Smith, A. Scaife, A. Arribas, E. Blockley, A. Brookshaw, R.T. Clark, N. Dunstone, R. Eade,

Seasonal to decadal prediction of the Arctic Oscillation D. Smith, A. Scaife, A. Arribas, E. Blockley, A. Brookshaw, R.T. Clark, N. Dunstone, R. Eade,
3. Natural Climate Variability. SPM 1b Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature for the past 1,000 years Approx. climate range over the 900 years.

3. Natural Climate Variability. SPM 1b Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature for the past 1,000 years Approx. climate range over the 900 years.
Climatology Lecture 8 Richard Washington Variability of the General Circulation.

Climatology Lecture 8 Richard Washington Variability of the General Circulation.
Climate Forecasting Unit Climate of the Month January-February 2012 Melanie Davis.

Climate Forecasting Unit Climate of the Month January-February 2012 Melanie Davis.
E l Nino-Southern Oscillation ENSO Richard H. Grumm and Paul Knight V_2.2 10 February 2004 26March 2002.

E l Nino-Southern Oscillation ENSO Richard H. Grumm and Paul Knight V_ February March 2002.
El Niño, La Niña and the Southern Oscillation

El Niño, La Niña and the Southern Oscillation
Extratropical climate. Review of last lecture Mean state: The two basic regions of SST? Which region has stronger rainfall? What is the Walker circulation?

Extratropical climate. Review of last lecture Mean state: The two basic regions of SST? Which region has stronger rainfall? What is the Walker circulation?
Inland Northwest 2009-10 Climate Recap and 2010-11 Seasonal Outlook Dr. John Abatzoglou Department of Geography University of Idaho 10 th Annual Climate.

Inland Northwest Climate Recap and Seasonal Outlook Dr. John Abatzoglou Department of Geography University of Idaho 10 th Annual Climate.
2008-09 Climate Recap and Outlook for Winter 2009-10 Eric Salathé JISAO Climate Impacts Group University of Washington.

Climate Recap and Outlook for Winter Eric Salathé JISAO Climate Impacts Group University of Washington.
Excerpts of the AAAS Fiscal Year 2009 Appropriations Summary ( www.aaas.org/spp/rd) September 2008 summary: Congress has made little progress on the federal.

Excerpts of the AAAS Fiscal Year 2009 Appropriations Summary ( September 2008 summary: Congress has made little progress on the federal.
Overview Northern hemisphere extra-tropics El Niño Seasonal Climate – Winter 2009-10 Mike Blackburn Seasonal Climate Discussion, 14 April 2010.

Overview Northern hemisphere extra-tropics El Niño Seasonal Climate – Winter Mike Blackburn Seasonal Climate Discussion, 14 April 2010.
UK Met Office seasonal forecast “warm winter”, based on >33% probability of warm tercile. Statistical method (May SST) forecast NAO+ Dynamical method (GloSea4)

UK Met Office seasonal forecast “warm winter”, based on >33% probability of warm tercile. Statistical method (May SST) forecast NAO+ Dynamical method (GloSea4)
Climate Review for WY 2004 and Outlook for WY 2005 Philip Mote Climate Impacts Group University of Washington Annual Fall Forecast Meeting October 26,

Climate Review for WY 2004 and Outlook for WY 2005 Philip Mote Climate Impacts Group University of Washington Annual Fall Forecast Meeting October 26,
El Niño/Southern Oscillation Major climatic perturbation on the planet Coupled atmosphere ocean process Key is the western tropical Pacific – Ascending.

El Niño/Southern Oscillation Major climatic perturbation on the planet Coupled atmosphere ocean process Key is the western tropical Pacific – Ascending.
© Crown copyright Met Office Met Office seasonal forecasting for winter 2010-11 Jeff Knight (with thanks to many colleagues)

© Crown copyright Met Office Met Office seasonal forecasting for winter Jeff Knight (with thanks to many colleagues)
Tahiti, Darwin, and pressure oscillations. SOI = Tahiti - Darwin (normalized)

Tahiti, Darwin, and pressure oscillations. SOI = Tahiti - Darwin (normalized)
Friday Weather Discussion Clark Evans 27 March 2015.

Friday Weather Discussion Clark Evans 27 March 2015.
Planetary Scale Weather Regimes: ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation): A global teleconnection, strongest in the Pacific, between the tropical oceans and.

Planetary Scale Weather Regimes: ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation): A global teleconnection, strongest in the Pacific, between the tropical oceans and.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google